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March 2025

snowman19

By snowman19,
in New York City Metro

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NJwx85
NJwx85

I couldn't be happier that this god forsaken Winter is coming to an early and abrupt end. My wife and I are expecting our third in early April and we're hoping for nice weather so that we can take him

psv88
psv88

That’s false…maybe sit this one out chief 

Uniblab
Uniblab

Hanging tough. 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
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Posted
2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Say it ain’t so. :( 

60 yesterday felt great, ready for much more of that. 

The fat lady is standing at the mic and is about to sing on this winter. This coming weekend is a unanimous nothing burger on all the models now. Just more of the same completely uncooperative northern/southern branches; lack of phasing we’ve seen for the past 5 months, then the pattern flips to warm after 3/10…..

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The fat lady is standing at the mic and is about to sing on this winter. This coming weekend is a unanimous nothing burger on all the models now. Just more of the same completely uncooperative northern/southern branches; lack of phasing we’ve seen for the past 5 months, then the pattern flips to warm after 3/10…..

More like April

There will be more cold shots after the 10th.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The fat lady is standing at the mic and is about to sing on this winter. This coming weekend is a unanimous nothing burger on all the models now. Just more of the same completely uncooperative northern/southern branches; lack of phasing we’ve seen for the past 5 months, then the pattern flips to warm after 3/10…..

All guidance actually shows a pretty decent phasing event on Tue - Wed of this upcoming week. Pretty classic phase with the trof taking on a negative tilt and a strong surface SLP. Should be a big QPF maker and significant snowstorm for deep interior Ontario.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
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15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

All guidance actually shows a pretty decent phasing event on Tue - Wed of this upcoming week. Pretty classic phase with the trof taking on a negative tilt and a strong surface SLP. Should be a big QPF maker and significant snowstorm for deep interior Ontario.

we'll have spring thunderstorms.

it's a normal spring storm.

 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I honestly can’t think of any recent winter’s that were this hostile to any major snowstorms in the metro area, literally every storm has trended worse as we got closer…..starting with the Thanksgiving storm the end of November right up until now. Over the last 10 years, we’ve had at least one event trend better as we got closer, this year, nothing at all. It has found every way possible to completely avoid any major snowstorms this winter

Jet is too strong for anything to amplify.  More importantly we are missing out on precip with these events.   Going to be a dry spring and water issues if things don't change soon.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Jet is too strong for anything to amplify.  More importantly we are missing out on precip with these events.   Going to be a dry spring and water issues if things don't change soon.

Tue-Wed is super amplified. Big phase, neg titled trof, big QPF, and strong SLP. So we shouldn't really say it can't happen.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

This morning, New York City had a low temperature of 19°. That was the first time the temperature had fallen into the teens in New York City in March since March 7, 2019 when the low temperature was 18°.

Tomorrow will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will top out in the middle and upper 30s in New York City. Low temperatures will start in the lower 20s in New York City and teens outside the City.

Temperatures will rebound quickly starting Tuesday. A storm will bring 0.50"-1.50" of rain from Philadelphia to Boston on Wednesday into Thursday.

No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through at least the first 10 days of March. The March 10-17 period could also feature a bout of much above normal temperatures.

The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February is continuing to fade. However, the peak magnitude of that ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops.  

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +1.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.311 today.

 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Cold Winters such as this sometimes have a last gasp cold snap in March. Good for spring skiing at least.

went up to Mohawk last night-conditions were good-they have a large base due to limited rainfall and cold conditions all winter

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Volcanic Winter

Volcanic Winter

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Amazing winter down there even if this does not come to fruition. We just have to break out of this 1980s weather pattern, hopefully next year we will see.

I thought only coastal sections / parts of the Delmarva and VA exceeded climo? I linked a chart from Feb 20th that showed many areas of the MA were still below average, and from reading the MA forum - many weren’t all that thrilled with the snowfall this year. 

I mean for sure they appreciated the lasting snow in Jan, as did we - it certainly wasn’t a bad winter for most of them. But it seemed like the repeated snows were mostly odd coastal sections. I’d have to look again, but I certainly didn’t garner the impression it was some blockbuster winter for the broader MA. 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
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10 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I thought only coastal sections / parts of the Delmarva and VA exceeded climo? I linked a chart from Feb 20th that showed many areas of the MA were still below average, and from reading the MA forum - many weren’t all that thrilled with the snowfall this year. 

I mean for sure they appreciated the lasting snow in Jan, as did we - it certainly wasn’t a bad winter for most of them. But it seemed like the repeated snows were mostly odd coastal sections. I’d have to look again, but I certainly didn’t garner the impression it was some blockbuster winter for the broader MA. 

I believe Raleigh, SE Virginia through the Delmarva were the hardest hit this winter. 

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