March 2025

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Not surprisingly, the ensembles are backing way off on the possible snow event for next weekend. None of the teleconnections (+NAO, +AO, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO, no 50/50 Low) at any level are in favor of a coastal snowstorm….and 850mb temps going into it are going to be way too warm for snow. This is very likely going to be a far interior and elevated snow event. All rain, even for southern New England IMO

If we even get that.   Everything has been too amped in the longer range.  

[bluewave]

Places like Newark will probably have their first 70° of the season before St. Patrick’s Day with the long range forecast and the pattern over the last 10 years.

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	01-11 (2020)		10-31 (2019)		229
Mean	02-23		11-09		258
Maximum	03-15 (2019)		11-18 (2024)		304
2024	03-03 (2024)	70	11-18 (2024)	70	259
2023	02-15 (2023)	70	11-17 (2023)	70	274
2022	02-23 (2022)	70	11-12 (2022)	74	261
2021	03-11 (2021)	75	11-18 (2021)	72	251
2020	01-11 (2020)	70	11-11 (2020)	73	304
2019	03-15 (2019)	77	10-31 (2019)	74	229
2018	02-21 (2018)	80	11-02 (2018)	73	253
2017	02-24 (2017)	74	11-03 (2017)	76	251
2016	03-09 (2016)	82	11-03 (2016)	74	238

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.01395#:~:text=Here we show that in,knowledge of heat and work.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01395

Perhaps not Don, this is interesting (I intuitively thought this might be the case because of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle):

Fluctuations of thermodynamic observables, such as heat and work, contain relevant information on the underlying physical process. These fluctuations are however not taken into account in the traditional laws of thermodynamics. While the second law is extended to fluctuating systems by the celebrated fluctuation theorems, the first law is generally believed to hold even in the presence of fluctuations. Here we show that in the presence of quantum fluctuations, also the first law of thermodynamics may break down. This happens because quantum mechanics imposes constraints on the knowledge of heat and work. To illustrate our results, we provide a detailed case-study of work and heat fluctuations in a quantum heat engine based on a circuit QED architecture. We find probabilistic violations of the first law and show that they are closely connected to quantum signatures related to negative quasi-probabilities. Our results imply that in the presence of quantum fluctuations, the first law of thermodynamics may not be applicable to individual experimental runs.

That's a pretty bold paper. Right now, it's a pre-print. Peer-review hasn't been completed. If its conclusions hold up, that would a fairly big development.

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's a pretty bold paper. Right now, it's a pre-print. Peer-review hasn't been completed. If its conclusions hold up, that would a fairly big development.

It would connect well with some theories concerning the multiverse, Don.  Perhaps the real laws of thermodynamics extend over the entire multiverse rather than any one universe.  The idea of universes coming into being from quantum soup via pair production near the event horizon of a higher dimensional black hole would seem to support this idea.  Inflation seems to hinge on this multiverse concept.

 

[LibertyBell]

That giant hawk I took pictures of in my back yard might be here to stay.  He or she was here for 4 hours today and even caught something (I don't know what it was-- either a mouse or squirrel or a small bird unfortunately) and sat in various branches of the same tree for 4 hours.  I guess it's okay -- the rodent population will be kept down?

At one point the giant bird spread out their tail feathers and looked like a small peacock on display (all while sitting in the same tree).

 

[MJO812]

Models are still showing a storm around 8-10. That should be the last for winter.

[Heisy]

Models are still showing a storm around 8-10. That should be the last for winter.

Yep, euro and Ai very close, temp issues coastal plain likely, but if we can get a really intense storm at our latitude we could make it work, especially you guys. Tougher here down in Philly.

The GEFs looks like the euro Ais snow map, so most likely GFS out to lunch.

I like this as a classic March N&W paste bomb if it can come together


.

[snowman19]

Yep, euro and Ai very close, temp issues coastal plain likely, but if we can get a really intense storm at our latitude we could make it work, especially you guys. Tougher here down in Philly.

The GEFs looks like the euro Ais snow map, so most likely GFS out to lunch.

I like this as a classic March N&W paste bomb if it can come together


.

This does not look like an I-95 NYC/coastal snowstorm at all, like not even in the ballpark. The antecedent setup looks awful. Teleconnections (+NAO, +AO, +EPO, -PNA, +WPO, no 50/50 low) look awful, and it will be March. This isn’t March, 2018. Also, 850mb temps too warm going into it. This has far interior and elevated written all over it

[Feen]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This does not look like an I-95 NYC/coastal snowstorm at all, like not even in the ballpark. The antecedent setup looks awful. Teleconnections (+NAO, +AO, +EPO, -PNA, +WPO, no 50/50 low) look awful, and it will be March. This isn’t March, 2018. Also, 850mb temps too warm going into it. This has far interior and elevated written all over it
 

we just need a strong storm 990 or lower

[Brian5671]

46 minutes ago, Feen said:

we just need a strong storm 990 or lower

We would literally need everything to perfectly work out.   We've had no intense storms all season so would not expect one now....

[Stormlover74]

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We would literally need everything to perfectly work out.   We've had no intense storms all season so would not expect one now....

Remember when today was going to be a big storm? We couldn't even get .1"

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Remember when today was going to be a big storm? We couldn't even get .1"

it's crazy how all the precip finds a way to miss

[Feen]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

We would literally need everything to perfectly work out.   We've had no intense storms all season so would not expect one now....

i agree we may have a 5% chance if that to get a real snowstorm at this point! oh well

[MANDA]

44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's crazy how all the precip finds a way to miss

For the most part the trend since the late fall has been to show wet events only for it to gradually back off as the events near.  We'll see what happens with the event mid next week.  Right now looks wet, 1" plus but we'll see how it progresses as we get closer.  Pattern has been overall lacking in precipitation for months now.  Drought Monitor issued today showed no change over the last week with still widespread dry to moderate or severe drought Mid-Atlantic and New England.  Not a big deal now but two months from now if the dryness has not eased drought conditions will ramp up quickly once into May.  We need March and April to deliver with above normal rainfall over a pretty large area.

[H2Otown_WX]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This does not look like an I-95 NYC/coastal snowstorm at all, like not even in the ballpark. The antecedent setup looks awful. Teleconnections (+NAO, +AO, +EPO, -PNA, +WPO, no 50/50 low) look awful, and it will be March. This isn’t March, 2018. Also, 850mb temps too warm going into it. This has far interior and elevated written all over it
 

I'm sure when March 2018 was about to happen you said this isn't March 2005 or 2003 or 1996

[Dan76]

nice sunset

[Uniblab]

Hanging tough. 

[Wannabehippie]

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I hope not, I think squirrels are probably more responsible for it.  Wasn't our big outage back in August 2004 (I hope I got the year right) blamed on squirrels or a squirrel?

The great blackout of August 2003? Overloaded lines sagged in to trees, which caused the initial outage. Then alarms failed to go off in control rooms to reduce voltage, then everything cascaded from there. FirstEnergy took a big chunk of the blame for the alarm failures, failure to reduce load, etc.

[Wannabehippie]

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, it's probably either that or extinction.  On the Kardashev scale it's predicted we would have some version of a warp drive in about 7,500 years but with the pace of technology I think it wouldn't take that long.

We probably will be able to create a Dyson sphere at some point as well.
I don't think we will match the Star Trek universe of 2063 of Earth being able to create a warp field. That is just 38 years away. It would be a cool thing to see.  I would be an old man, but it is definitely within reach for me to live that long.

[BlizzLuv]

1 hour ago, Uniblab said:

Hanging tough. 

It's all about the shadows. My neighbor has a pile-o'-snow that is on its last legs too.

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I'm sure when March 2018 was about to happen you said this isn't March 2005 or 2003 or 1996

Oh you’re sure huh? Only a troll, like yourself would have said that 

[winterwx21]

I see 0z Euro gives us the storm next weekend. With dynamics and a good track we change over to heavy snow on this run. Obviously it needs to be a perfect situation since it's a borderline airmass, and it's over a week away. A real longshot at this point, but as long as there's a slim chance it's worth watching. Probably our last thing to watch this winter. 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I see 0z Euro gives us the storm next weekend. With dynamics and a good track we change over to heavy snow on this run. Obviously it needs to be a perfect situation since it's a borderline airmass, and it's over a week away. A real longshot at this point, but as long as there's a slim chance it's worth watching. Probably our last thing to watch this winter. 

And not surprisingly, the EPS snow mean is anemic, even at 10:1 ratios. In order to do what the op EURO showed, for over a week out, since there is no cold, you would need a perfectly placed, bombing low with strong enough UVV’s and very heavy precip rates to dynamically cool the column enough from aloft to get snow. Best of luck with that one 

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And not surprisingly, the EPS snow mean is anemic, even at 10:1 ratios. In order to do what the op EURO showed, for over a week out, since there is no cold, you would need a perfectly placed, bombing low with strong enough UVV’s and very heavy precip rates to dynamically cool the column enough from aloft to get snow. Best of luck with that one 

There is cold around but it's currently an outlier. 

[weatherpruf]

14 hours ago, BlizzLuv said:

It's all about the shadows. My neighbor has a pile-o'-snow that is on its last legs too.

Go down to a local mall; despite the low snow amounts, the cold kept the piles around; there are mountains of black stained ice that should last a few more weeks. 

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And not surprisingly, the EPS snow mean is anemic, even at 10:1 ratios. In order to do what the op EURO showed, for over a week out, since there is no cold, you would need a perfectly placed, bombing low with strong enough UVV’s and very heavy precip rates to dynamically cool the column enough from aloft to get snow. Best of luck with that one 

Not happening for another reason-we've had ZERO noreasters this year...I don't see the pattern changing in that regard...NYC had 12 inches of rain from 9/1-2/28 BONE DRY