March 2025

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

when you enter March predicting any weather event in the longer range becomes more difficult because its a changing of seasons - plus if you predict low 40's for a daytime high and it snows your prediction from 10 days prior will bust by 10 degrees at least

as far as snowfall is concerned, you can definitely be in the 40s during the day and have snowfall at night.  We've seen that in April too.  I think it was April 2006 (I forget the date-- maybe the 4th?) when we had 1 inch of snow here in the morning and highs in the upper 40s with sunshine in the afternoon.

There was another day with a more memorable snowfall towards the end of March 1996 when we had 7 inches of snow here at night and in the morning and temps popped into the 40s and it felt warm in the afternoon when the sun came out.

Snowfall depends on timing (which makes it much harder to predict than temperatures.)

 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I actually want to see if we can avoid 60 degrees during the entirety of astronomical winter, that might be the first time that's ever happened.

 

it would be welcomed though - can sit outside for awhile in the sun hopefully

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

it would be welcomed though - can sit outside for awhile in the sun hopefully

Even 50s with strong March sunshine will feel warm-- lol anything without wind will feel good as long as it's sunny.

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

it would be welcomed though - can sit outside for awhile in the sun hopefully

I have already been doing that this winter. The sun doesn't go away during the winter.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have already been doing that this winter. The sun doesn't go away during the winter.

winter had that crazy cold wind, Ant

[LoboLeader1]

On 2/21/2025 at 8:19 AM, MJO812 said:

First half of March doesn't look warm. The second half is in question .

 I think we still have a shot in seeing some snow in early March. Here in HPN we have seen less then 10 inches of snow thus far.  

[cleetussnow]

44 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 I think we still have a shot in seeing some snow in early March. Here in HPN we have seen less then 10 inches of snow thus far.  

I don’t think thats right.

[snowman19]

I don’t think anyone is arguing that it’s not going to get cold the 1st 2 weeks of March, I’ve yet to see anyone say it’s not. It’s the period beginning at the end of the 2nd week of next month that looks to really transition us into spring fast as we approach the Ides. Also, as a caveat, I think most on here realize that March “cold” isn’t the same as December, January, February….even late November cold. Normal highs are rising quickly and you have climo, length of day and sun angle all working against winter at that point. In March, we have the equivalent of a September sun overhead 
 

 

 

 

 

[Dark Star]

36 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I don’t think thats right.

Down here in Garwood NJ, we had 10.3" of snow this winter...

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Down here in Garwood NJ, we had 10.3" of snow this winter...

One of the NE forum mets had a tally for up closer to 19

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

One of the NE forum mets had a tally for up closer to 19

I'm at 15" exactly. <5 miles from garwood.  Those little events add up

[MJO812]

Cmc and ukie are interesting for next weekend but let's see what happens when we get closer.

[WestBabylonWeather]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc and ukie are interesting for next weekend but let's see what happens when we get closer.

Don’t do it. 

[winterwx21]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's low 50s not 60s, don't know where he got 60s from.

 

He didn't say 60s. He said flirting with 60 on Tuesday, which could mean upper 50s. NWS forecast for our area in central NJ has mid 50s for Tuesday. It wouldn't be a shock to see it make upper 50s here on Tuesday, which would mean his flirting with 60 statement was ok. Although clouds might keep it in the mid 50s here. We'll see. The bottom line though is it will be a much warmer week with lots of 50s. Winter certainly isn't over though with colder air in the long range. 

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Don’t do it. 

Not yet

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc and ukie are interesting for next weekend but let's see what happens when we get closer.

its amazing how different the GFS and Canadian are along the east coast next weekend GFS has no sign of a storm and Canadian does

[snowman19]

This winter is very reminiscent of 2007-08 for snowfall, not temps of course. Obviously March withstanding, it’s been a much colder version of that winter. The NYC metro area saw a very similar dud of a winter for snowfall through the end of February back then too, very small events from December through the end of February then that was all she wrote. Going to have to see what happens in March, but if there’s a similar March result, I think this has been a very good 07-08 match, for snowfall only, not temps

[qg_omega]

46 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its amazing how different the GFS and Canadian are along the east coast next weekend GFS has no sign of a storm and Canadian does

KING GFS

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

its amazing how different the GFS and Canadian are along the east coast next weekend GFS has no sign of a storm and Canadian does

This is 7 /8 days out.  Not a surprise the models are different.  Even if they are the same, means little in terms of actual outcomes.  Unless its a cutter.

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

He didn't say 60s. He said flirting with 60 on Tuesday, which could mean upper 50s. NWS forecast for our area in central NJ has mid 50s for Tuesday. It wouldn't be a shock to see it make upper 50s here on Tuesday, which would mean his flirting with 60 statement was ok. Although clouds might keep it in the mid 50s here. We'll see. The bottom line though is it will be a much warmer week with lots of 50s. Winter certainly isn't over though with colder air in the long range. 

Weather.com for my region had 59 for Tuesday. Now it's 57 and 56 on Wednesday. If it's sunny we'll definitely over perform and I think 60F is doable. 

Almost March, sun's getting stronger. 

[qg_omega]

7 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 I think we still have a shot in seeing some snow in early March. Here in HPN we have seen less then 10 inches of snow thus far.  

What?

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This winter is very reminiscent of 2007-08 for snowfall, not temps of course. Obviously March withstanding, it’s been a much colder version of that winter. The NYC metro area saw a very similar dud of a winter for snowfall through the end of February back then too, very small events from December through the end of February then that was all she wrote. Going to have to see what happens in March, but if there’s a similar March result, I think this has been a very good 07-08 match, for snowfall only, not temps

But in late February 2008 we had a rare SWFE that worked out for us 6" of snow.  Nothing like that this winter.

[snowman19]

Way drier than normal since December, not a surprise that we’re still in a major drought. If this doesn’t change in a big way in March, make no mistake about it, we’re in big trouble (wildfires, water restrictions) this spring. Met spring starts Saturday and astronomical spring starts on 3/20….
 

[psv88]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Way drier than normal since December, not a surprise that we’re still in a major drought. If this doesn’t change in a big way in March, make no mistake about it, we’re in big trouble (wildfires, water restrictions) this spring. Met spring starts Saturday and astronomical spring starts on 3/20….
 

2” or less below normal is not way below normal…we’ll be fine 

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, psv88 said:

2” or less below normal is not way below normal…we’ll be fine 

Funny how in dry years like 2002 we didn't have fires and now for some reason we do.  Like I have said before, we have had overgrowth because of many years of too much rain, that growth needs to be cut off and removed.

 

[North and West]

Funny how in dry years like 2002 we didn't have fires and now for some reason we do.  Like I have said before, we have had overgrowth because of many years of too much rain, that growth needs to be cut off and removed.
 

New Jersey does a lot wrong, but does fire prevention well. California shows what happens when you add fuel from what could be preventable (brush and forest management) to what isn’t preventable (dryness, winds, sparks) and can get conflagrations that impact people and property.


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[eduggs]

49 minutes ago, North and West said:

New Jersey does a lot wrong, but does fire prevention well. California shows what happens when you add fuel from what could be preventable (brush and forest management) to what isn’t preventable (dryness, winds, sparks) and can get conflagrations that impact people and property.

I'm confident (though not certain) that you know less about fire prevention than experts whose job it is to know. The issue is likely a lot more complex than you indicate.

[North and West]

I'm confident (though not certain) that you know less about fire prevention than experts whose job it is to know. The issue is likely a lot more complex than you indicate.

…wasn’t the fire chief in L.A. just fired this week for not doing enough to prepare for fires?


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[Rjay]

33 minutes ago, North and West said:

…wasn’t the fire chief in L.A. just fired this week for not doing enough to prepare for fires?


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Yes but it was really the mayor and the chief going back and forth bc of politics.  Everyone needed to do better. I don't know the answers though bc I'm not an expert. 

[psv88]

56 minutes ago, North and West said:

…wasn’t the fire chief in L.A. just fired this week for not doing enough to prepare for fires?


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It’s called a scapegoat