March 2025

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Yeah. I said that. However, the models dont show anything remotely close to the 50s. Will it be warmer than shown? 99% likely. So why exaggerate what the models show?  

we'll hit 50s for two days next week but the first few days of March are likely to be in the 40s.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The models don't look warm after next week.

depends on what you mean by *warm*, it will be warmer than it is right now.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO March 2025  has a chance of being the snowiest month of this winter in many areas of the metro - temps overall near normal for the month  and the first half of the month colder than normal with an active storm track not suppressed- has happened many times since record keeping began in low snowfall winters through Feb

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

this would go completely against climo of the 2020s.

If you want to use 1991-92 as an analog fine, the history of March snowfalls is that they occur in borderline temperatures and melt quickly.  Sure it can snow in March but it won't save the season. Also, it could just as easily rain even in the first half of the month with transient cold in between the rainstorms.  That's probably more likely.

 

 

[JetsPens87]

Not sure how anyone looks out through March 10th - 15th ish and doesn't think winter continues through there.

After that? I think it flips REALLY quick to warmth but even that timing is still up in the air.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Are you looking at the models ?

No I never look at the models, I go by what has a better track record, 1) climo 2) persistence and 3) what's happening upstream.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

skip the models they've been terrible this yr

they are a complete waste of time.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Not sure how anyone looks out through March 10th - 15th ish and doesn't think winter continues through there.

After that? I think it flips REALLY quick to warmth but even that timing is still up in the air.

Yep, it's still winter and perhaps even a little below normal, but nothing like what it is now.  I would guess low to mid 40s for highs, low 30s for lows.

 

[JetsPens87]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

No I never look at the models, I go by what has a better track record, 1) climo 2) persistence and 3) what's happening upstream.

Climo still on our side

Persistence would dictate a continuance of BN

Upstream you still have the EPO press driving cold through Canada. Downstream you have the PV spinning it through SE Canada and into the Northeast

This continues through mid March IMO

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Climo still on our side

Persistence would dictate a continuance of BN

Upstream you still have the EPO press driving cold through Canada. Downstream you have the PV spinning it through SE Canada and into the Northeast

This continues through mid March IMO

Right, I like below normal for the first part of March too (low 40s is below normal for March), just not the way it is right now.  Looking back at 2014 and 2015 which was the last time we had an EPO like this, we didn't snap to warm weather until around the 20th.

March 2014 was really suppressed, that's the outcome we don't want.  March 2015 was much snowier, but that came after a historically cold February that was really snowy.  With that fast Pac flow, I feel like a March 2014 kind of outcome is more likely, but maybe we can get something in between those two Marches if the SE ridge can prevent suppression?

 

[donsutherland1]

At present, I believe it's premature to highlight potential for winter storms in New York City in the long-range at this time of year with much degree of accuracy, especially as one big factor suggests otherwise. Additional measurable snow this season still seems reasonably likely. My lack of confidence concerns significant (6"+) or major (10"+) snowstorms in the New York City area.

In the heart of winter, from January through the first two weeks of February, nature follows a reasonably clear script. When the Arctic Oscillation turns negative (AO-) and the Pacific-North American pattern trends positive (PNA+), the stage is set for snowfall in the New York City area. The likelihood of significant or major snowstorms is well above climatology during such patterns except when the AO plunges beyond -3.000 in January due to January's long wavelengths.

To proactively address common misperceptions of patterns, it is important to know what patterns can and cannot do. In general, patterns provide insight into potential for a broad area e.g., the Middle Atlantic region, 5-7 days in advance. They can alert one to look for the potential of an event. However, patterns cannot provide details for specific locations within the region. Synoptic details determine whether the potential is realized and how specific locations are impacted.

Winter 2024-2025 was no exception. During January 1 through February 14, an AO-/PNA+ pattern prevailed on 58% of days. However, those 58% of days accounted for 88% of days with measurable snowfall and 88% of total snowfall during this period, including New York City's biggest snowstorm (3.1"). Those days also saw Washington, DC and Baltimore get blanketed by a 6"+ snowstorm.

But as the calendar passes mid-February, the storyline shifts. During the second half of February, the most formidable snow events tend to arise from a different combination: AO-/PNA-. A PNA+ often leads to suppression in the realm of late February's shortening wave lengths when the AO is negative. The recent snowstorm that brought 11.0" to Norfolk was the latest such example.

Even worse, when PNA+ ridges grow too strong during the second half of February—pushing to +1.500 or above—they often play the role of a harsh gatekeeper, shutting the door on any chance of a major snowstorm for the rest of the snow season in the New York City area. Winter 2024-2025 will again challenge that "gatekeeper." In the 12 previous cases since 1950, New York City saw no major snowstorms once the PNA reached +1.500 during the February 15-29 period. Time will tell whether Winter 2024-2025 has a different outcome.

Then comes March, and the narrative dissolves into uncertainty. There is no longer any dominant pattern. Even as a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) has been present during six of New York City’s seven snowstorms of 6 inches or more during March 1-15 since 1950, the sample size is too small to trust the pattern fully.

As the calendar advances beyond mid-March, the potential insight offered by large-scale patterns vanishes almost entirely. Now, it’s all about the fleeting, unpredictable nature of shortwaves and the dwindling reservoirs of cold air left to tap.

Forecasting at this point becomes a high-stakes waiting game. Chasing shortwaves 5+ days out is like chasing shadows. Models don't become highly skillful with synoptic details until 1-3 days out. Sometimes they struggle within even this period.

 

[MJO812]

[Maxim]

14 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

how do you get 40's and 50's from this on March 1 ?

Because it's not going to verify

[SnoSki14]

Coming week looks nice and toasty, flirting with 60F on Tuesday. 

Very dry however, that's not great. Following week looks a lot wetter though. 

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Coming week looks nice and toasty, flirting with 60F on Tuesday. 

Very dry however, that's not great. Following week looks a lot wetter though. 

Probably low 50s, the following week looks colder (especially March 2nd) and then it bounces back to the 40s again a few days later so a short but sharp cold shot?

On a positive note, today was the first morning I noticed the sky getting brighter before 6 am here!

 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Coming week looks nice and toasty, flirting with 60F on Tuesday. 

Very dry however, that's not great. Following week looks a lot wetter though. 

if you are going to make statements that contradict what the NWS is predicting at least try and back it up with some evidence

ZFP from KOKX

 

[NEG NAO]

56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Probably low 50s, the following week looks colder (especially March 2nd) and then it bounces back to the 40s again a few days later so a short but sharp cold shot?

On a positive note, today was the first morning I noticed the sky getting brighter before 6 am here!

 

how can you predict the daily temps being in the 40's over 10 days in advance ?

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

how can you predict the daily temps being in the 40's over 10 days in advance ?

long range maps, plus 40s is normal for this time of year so it's not a tough forecast to make.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

if you are going to make statements that contradict what the NWS is predicting at least try and back it up with some evidence

ZFP from KOKX

 

it's low 50s not 60s, don't know where he got 60s from.

 

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

long range maps, plus 40s is normal for this time of year so it's not a tough forecast to make.

 

can you post some long range maps to prove your point ? Here's a snow map in the mean time

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

can you post some long range maps to prove your point ? Here's a snow map in the mean time

No you can find them yourself and they will be a hell of a lot more accurate than this cartoonish snowfall map from the 6z GFS.

Even just going by climo for temps will be a lot more accurate than this.

There isn't going to be snow here for at least a week, 0% chance.

 

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No you can find them yourself and they will be a hell of a lot more accurate than this cartoonish snowfall map from the 6z GFS.

Even just going by climo for temps will be a lot more accurate than this.

There isn't going to be snow here for at least a week, 0% chance.

 

That map has no snow on it for a week in NYC if you run it from day 1 - what makes 10 day temperature maps more accurate than the GFS long range snow map ? There have never been any busts ? Never any differences in individual models ?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

That map has no snow on it for a week if you run it from day 1 - what makes 10 day temperature maps more accurate than the GFS long range snow map ? There have never been any busts ?

I'm sure you understand that it's much easier to predict temperatures than it is to predict snowfall. Especially so on the margins (which Don also stated in an earlier post in this thread.)  But even in the middle of winter it's much easier to predict temperatures than it is to predict snowfall.  Snow is much more of an anomalous event than average temperatures are.