March 2025

[snowman19]

 

March…let’s discuss….

 

 

 

[wdrag]

CPC issued  2/20 is attached, however it  reliability and implications are uncertain beyond March 10 since we should start the first week of March, normal or colder than normal with events of sorts around March 2, March 5-6. The wintry risk on those seems to be mainly north of I80 (especially the I84 corridor).

Just hoping March can produce 4" of rain which is bit below normal for CP (4.29") and even with below normal snowfall (norm = 5"), receive enough snow in CP to raise our seasonal total to 15" (a hopeful 2.1").  Even with these values, drought might persist.  Reservoirs for NYC per DEP on 2/20 are about 15% below normal and it would be nice if Match could become actively wetter than normal. The CPC outlook is attached. 

 

[snowman19]

CPC issued  2/20 is attached, however it  reliability and implications are uncertain beyond March 10 since we should start the first week of March, normal or colder than normal with events of sorts around March 2, March 5-6. The wintry risk on those seems to be mainly north of I80 (especially the I84 corridor).
Just hoping March can produce 4" of rain which is bit below normal for CP (4.29") and even with below normal snowfall (norm = 5"), receive enough snow in CP to raise our seasonal total to 15" (a hopeful 2.1").  Even with these values, drought might persist.  Reservoirs for NYC per DEP on 2/20 are about 15% below normal and it would be nice if Match could become actively wetter than normal. The CPC outlook is attached. 
 

Good point. The northeast coast is still in the midst of a major drought. Nothing has changed since the end of November. It’s scary because we risk water restrictions and wildfires again if this doesn’t change in a really big way come spring
 
 

[gravitylover]

I noticed yesterday that the 2 big reservoirs below my house are full for the first time since September 2024. One of them even had the overflow open with a trickle happening. 

[MJO812]

First half of March doesn't look warm. The second half is in question .

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

Good point. The northeast coast is still in the midst of a major drought. Nothing has changed since the end of November. It’s scary because we risk water restrictions and wildfires again if this doesn’t change in a really big way come spring
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we have too much uncontrolled growth that needs to be removed.  We never had these kinds of fires in 2002 the last dry year we had.  It's been abnormally wet for decades now and that overgrowth needs to be chopped down and removed.  I think we are regressing back to a more normal rainfall pattern for us which is 40 inches per year and under 4 inches per month.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

First half of March doesn't look warm. The second half is in question .

many days in the 40s with sunshine is just fine.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

many days in the 40s with sunshine is just fine.

It's going to be colder than that 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's going to be colder than that 

doubt it, it's March and the sun gets really strong in March.  This winter hasn't been very cold, just cold compared to the last few years.  I could see a few days in the upper 30s if it's cloudy, but nothing below low 40s if the sun is out.

 

[Krs4Lfe]

Looks like we'll be heading to 40s and 50s by end of next week. Starting off meteorological spring strong. We'll need some colder air in order to work out a marginal event down here. If we're finished with snow, NYC's amount is 16" lower than the average. 

[ForestHillWx]

Ah, back to the cold debate. It’s been cold in my area; snow cover has been long lasting during multiple runs. Had multiple below zero nights and the Delaware froze south of Trenton…We keep moving goal posts to suit the narrative.

March is a transition month; are we guaranteed snow, of course not, but the probabilities are in our favor. 

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

doubt it, it's March and the sun gets really strong in March.  This winter hasn't been very cold, just cold compared to the last few years.  I could see a few days in the upper 30s if it's cloudy, but nothing below low 40s if the sun is out.

 

Are you looking at the models ?

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Are you looking at the models ?

skip the models they've been terrible this yr

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

skip the models they've been terrible this yr

they don't show anything anyway. So maybe it will snow

[Krs4Lfe]

36 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO March 2025  has a chance of being the snowiest month of this winter in many areas of the metro - temps overall near normal for the month  and the first half of the month colder than normal with an active storm track not suppressed- has happened many times since record keeping began in low snowfall winters through Feb

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

I doubt it. The models show 40s and 50s to start March, and average temps only increase from there. Doesn't look like any signs of sustained cold coming our way, which we would probably need for some marginal snowfall

[MJO812]

42 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO March 2025  has a chance of being the snowiest month of this winter in many areas of the metro - temps overall near normal for the month  and the first half of the month colder than normal with an active storm track not suppressed- has happened many times since record keeping began in low snowfall winters through Feb

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Agree

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I doubt it. The models show 40s and 50s to start March, and average temps only increase from there. Doesn't look like any signs of sustained cold coming our way, which we would probably need for some marginal snowfall

The models don't look warm after next week.

[BxEngine]

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I doubt it. The models show 40s and 50s to start March, and average temps only increase from there. Doesn't look like any signs of sustained cold coming our way, which we would probably need for some marginal snowfall

Post the modeled temps for next weekend. 

[BxEngine]

Its fine to believe the temps are underdone. They often are, especially these times of year. But here are the afternoon modeled temps for the beginning of march:

 

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

Its fine to believe the temps are underdone. They often are, especially these times of year. But here are the afternoon modeled temps: 

 

Unfortunately, those are probably underdone, and without any precip moving through the area, looks like mild and dry

[BxEngine]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

Unfortunately, those are probably underdone, and without any precip moving through the area, looks like mild and dry

Yeah. I said that. However, the models dont show anything remotely close to the 50s. Will it be warmer than shown? 99% likely. So why exaggerate what the models show?  

[Allsnow]

It’s early, but March 1st to 3rd look to start below avg with a artic shot 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks like we'll be heading to 40s and 50s by end of next week. Starting off meteorological spring strong. We'll need some colder air in order to work out a marginal event down here. If we're finished with snow, NYC's amount is 16" lower than the average. 

how do you get 40's and 50's from this on March 1 ?

[Stormlover74]

Imagine a 979 low and rain to northern VT?

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Imagine a 979 low and rain to northern VT?

Can you imagine if that model is wrong ?

[Stormlover74]

22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Can you imagine if that model is wrong ?

wow never thought of that

[Allsnow]

 

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Ah, back to the cold debate. It’s been cold in my area; snow cover has been long lasting during multiple runs. Had multiple below zero nights and the Delaware froze south of Trenton…We keep moving goal posts to suit the narrative.

March is a transition month; are we guaranteed snow, of course not, but the probabilities are in our favor. 

Wow, and I though Hainseville was the icebox of New Jersey!

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

how do you get 40's and 50's from this on March 1 ?

40s is likely, not 50s on that date.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

It’s early, but March 1st to 3rd look to start below avg with a artic shot 

yes but transient, nothing like what we have right now.