March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[Typhoon Tip]

EPS BNs the temps at the end of next week and then locks it thru 360 hours.   

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

EPS BNs the temps at the end of next week and then locks it thru 360 hours.   

Curious to see how well that verifies. We all know there is a tendency this time of year for those cold shots to be overstated and this one may fit that mold. However, that isn't a good enough reason to justify this case but when looking at this you can see why it probably is overstated. 

First off, these are some intense cyclones undergoing rapid cyclogenesis crossing the Plains so they are drawing down some chilly temperatures on the backside. Hell, there could be a decent swath of heavy snow on the backside of this from South Dakota through southern Minnesota and even within the Ohio Valley they could get snow showers Wednesday night. 

Anyways, for us, these systems are also occluding extremely quickly and tracking well to our northwest...its difficult seeing any anomalously cold llvl airmasses truly advect into our area. 

But maybe the BN temps are more related to some local influences with onshore flow from the cuttoff in the ATL?

[weatherwiz]

7 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

TBH I don't even know if anyone in SNE gets any thunder. I'm pretty shocked to see the marginal so far east...thought the cutoff would be well back to like PA/NJ border. Eventually we'll see it cut back. 

This is more like it

[CT Valley Snowman]

60 here.  Beautiful day.

[NoCORH4L]

Still 9" here in the Hubb! Tomorrow is absolutely the last day though, yesterday evening I measured 11" solid. 

[weatherwiz]

I don't know how people can sit on ice. I would be EXTREMELY nervous that I would fall in. If I wanted my butt to be cold I'll just sit inside a walk-in freezer. 

[8611Blizz]

53 here 48 two miles east. Love spring on the coast...

[CoastalWx]

Low 50s here with no wind. Nape-tastic.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Curious to see how well that verifies. We all know there is a tendency this time of year for those cold shots to be overstated and this one may fit that mold. However, that isn't a good enough reason to justify this case but when looking at this you can see why it probably is overstated. 

First off, these are some intense cyclones undergoing rapid cyclogenesis crossing the Plains so they are drawing down some chilly temperatures on the backside. Hell, there could be a decent swath of heavy snow on the backside of this from South Dakota through southern Minnesota and even within the Ohio Valley they could get snow showers Wednesday night. 

Anyways, for us, these systems are also occluding extremely quickly and tracking well to our northwest...its difficult seeing any anomalously cold llvl airmasses truly advect into our area. 

But maybe the BN temps are more related to some local influences with onshore flow from the cuttoff in the ATL?

agreed in principle.

but this year's tendency to find a way to make N/A continental mid latitudes pretty much own all the cold anomalies in the hemisphere ..save for minoring in other locations, seems to still haunt the models - even absent now of the -EPO plagues, they're persisting in leaking enough cold into the Canadian shield to bleed in.

This aspect of the EPS is not a cold shot though? sounds like that's what your thinking - I may not have that right.  But it's more of a pattern driven thing with the current EPS mean.  Hopefully it just breaks down... but the GEFs is really indicating -850 anomalies over the border and an active stormy +PNA hybrid canvas, too.   so ...  it just seems whatever bug up her ass it is, Gaia just wants to fuck with us while enabling deniers   LOL

Edit, the 2-meter temperatures ... not 850 abv

[Baroclinic Zone]

64F

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't know how people can sit on ice. I would be EXTREMELY nervous that I would fall in. If I wanted my butt to be cold I'll just sit inside a walk-in freezer. 

Can you even break the surface tension of water?

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, NoCORH4L said:

Still 9" here in the Hubb! Tomorrow is absolutely the last day though, yesterday evening I measured 11" solid. 

Saw a bunch of ice shacks on part of the CT in SVT and NH yesterday and today.  

[dendrite]

24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Saw a bunch of ice shacks on part of the CT in SVT and NH yesterday and today.  

Tin roofs rusted?

[powderfreak]

Snowpack crying for its mama in town.  Anywhere from like 6” to 16” but we are going to start seeing wide areas of bare ground after the next two days.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Tin roofs rusted?

Some seemed pretty fancy from what I could see.  I didn’t know you could set those up on a river like thay. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Also, the number of roads in S VT that were closed due to mud was interesting. 

[MJO812]

Too bad this can't come north 

[Snowcrazed71]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Too bad this can't come north 

It could!! This could be the big one!!!! 

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, NoCORH4L said:

Still 9" here in the Hubb! Tomorrow is absolutely the last day though, yesterday evening I measured 11" solid. 

What was the thickest it got this year?

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Can you even break the surface tension of water?

When we were kids me and two friends were walking on a brook that fed into the pond, one guy fell through up to his neck and it was one of those single digit high days. By the time we got him home he was covered in ice.

[H2Otown_WX]

41 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It could!! This could be the big one!!!! 

Lol, it'd be funny if after having c*cktease after c*cktease all winter we ended up getting a spring KU.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Lol, it'd be funny if after having c*cktease after c*cktease all winter we ended up getting a spring KU.

Although I was kidding, it would be funny.. Wouldn't it