March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[Damage In Tolland]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday could be quite warm albeit windy. Another couple of very warm days next week. Boy did she let us out. I guess this coating will be it for March.

Damage!

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, kdxken said:

See you next year. Maybe...

 

He’ll be here next year..he’ll be here all Spring and summer too.  He’s not going anywhere. Most of us will be gone in another couple weeks, but he’ll be here. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He’ll be here next year..he’ll be here all Spring and summer too.  He’s not going anywhere. Most of us will be gone in another couple weeks, but he’ll be here. 

 

[radarman]

An inch overnight in Btown

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Damage!

Looks fairly inverted. Meh.

[jbenedet]

Another very short winter. Past few years were like 4 months of late March; December—>april 1. This year was a winter Jan and February but a fall December and spring March.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks fairly inverted. Meh.

Nah 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Another very short winter. Past few years were like 4 months of late March; December—>april 1. This year was a winter Jan and February but a fall December and spring March.

Seems like president's weekend is the end of anything prolonged these days-so down to 7-8 weeks of real winter.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Another very short winter. Past few years were like 4 months of late March; December—>april 1. This year was a winter Jan and February but a fall December and spring March.

Dec was near to just BN here. It actually felt like a winter month.

[Brian5671]

March has been torching (borrowed from Bluewave in NYC Forum)

[CoastalWx]

It also was the coldest winter since 2015. Nothing like last few years.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It also was the coldest winter since 2015. Nothing like last few years.

Yawn. 
 

Let’s see the balance with Morch factored in. 
 

I was near normal for Jan and Feb; this month gonna tilt it well above.

[jbenedet]

It was overall very different, yes. But again resulted in a much shorter winter.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Yawn. 
 

Let’s see the balance with Morch factored in. 
 

I was near normal for Jan and Feb; this month gonna tilt it well above.

Yeah March will be AN for sure. I'm talking D-F. March has been non-existent for winter aside from the nipple low that buried the interior in 2023.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't know ... I had snow on the ground for 9 weeks straight with primarily BN temperatures and these aspects are incontrovertible -

As critical aspect to the tone of winter, that's longer snow on the ground than I've seen in some years that boasted much higher total snow amounts overall spanning the last several decades. 

I don't know what metric/combination therein people are needing to qualify matters, but in so far as the objective reality of those empirical values above,  this was not a "short" winter against the last 30 years of climatology.  Not here in this region of Massachusetts.   

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know ... I had snow on the ground for 9 weeks straight with primarily BN temperatures and these aspects are incontrovertible -

As critical aspect to the tone of winter, that's longer snow on the ground than I've seen in some years that boasted much higher total snow amounts overall spanning the last several decades. 

I don't know what metric/combination therein people are needing to qualify matters, but in so far as the objective reality of those empirical values above,  this was not a "short" winter against the last 30 years of climatology.  Not here in this region of Massachusetts.   

Violently agree.

[Typhoon Tip]

Moving forward, the PNA is offering a new + bump in the projections out there heading into the early 20s. 

Just may want to bear that in mind.  The prior outlook in that regard suggested a neutral-negative index, with +EPO ...and full recovery in the polar fields, so a more convincing and pithy warm-up should manifest - should have by now in the operational runs...  

It's interesting the operational runs (EC/GFS/GGEM) have never really bought into that, and still haven't.  The 00z runs kept up with it ... look like they're scheming away at the physics to figure how to abase ...  Then, I checked the PNA this morning and it's not so clear anymore.  New neutral-positive modulation has set in ...  Sometimes this happens when, though rarely, the weight of the index gets fails to the lower probability of just a few members.   It looks like the telecon is now moving toward the these solutions that keep plumbing troughs.

There's time for that signal - if legit - to mature further and to then manifest a colder scenario in that time range.   I'm a big fan of trend.  The resistance by the operational run types to commit more fully to a real and convincing warming in lieu of these single day warm sector things... that is a trend that favors colder when comparing against the telecon - which appears to now be in delta?  The cooler indicator is currently in the lead.

We'll see how things materialize, but I'm going to be watching that time range for some piece of shit useless late event or cold, either way. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, GCWarrior said:

No snow here.  We had a little bit of fun here this winter time to move on . Bike is ready. 

Yeah, I’m not sure we even had full cloud cover last night. I’m ready, spring in the valley is nice.

[jbenedet]

Winter quite literally ending 6 weeks early vs the calendar and it’s not a short winter? 

You guys must live very difficult lives. Everything isn’t complicated.

Also groundhogs day must be a recurring day a violence.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Winter quite literally ending 6 weeks early vs the calendar and it’s not a short winter?

You guys must live very difficult lives.

Also groundhogs day must be a recurring day a violence.

Well, even though some got porcked in the snowfall department, December was a pretty wintry month and that hasn't been the case in years....so its defintely not any shorter than any other recent seasons.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Winter quite literally ending 6 weeks early vs the calendar and it’s not a short winter? 

You guys must live very difficult lives. Everything isn’t complicated.

Also groundhogs day must be a recurring day a violence.

We live here in reality bro

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Violently agree.

Yea, even though it sucked for snowfall in my area, it was the most consistently wintry season since at least 2018-2019 and perhaps 2017-2018...but hell, 2018 had an extrordinarly warm deviation from winter during February and even 2014-2015 began late, so one could make a case to go back as far as 2013-2014.

Did I enjoy this season? No...it blew, but I need to keep it real.

[CoastalWx]

Just do a couple of Pope-A Wheelies on the Kawasaki and let out the frustration.

[Damage In Tolland]

Pope in wheelies since 1997

[jbenedet]

It’s all entertaining. It’s like you all forgot what is a normal winter in colder sections of New England.

Having a consistent pack in Jan and Feb is normal lol. I average 60” a year.

 

[jbenedet]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We live here in reality bro

 

Scary 

[jbenedet]

Winter ended Feb 25th and I had <40” snow vs average of 60+ but “normal winter” because we maintained a pack.

This place has mid Atlantic climo (recency) bias now.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

It is mid to late March by then ...

March is a fickle time of year and lower performance tendencies in guidance etc..is common.  A +PNA cooler profile period, it could all be fake I guess.  

I certainly hope so ...  I don't know what it is this go.  I'm particularly longing for greener leas.  Those horizon thunder heads. The aromas of summer... Long bike rides.  Running outside.  Baseball.  Beach/surf runs...  It just hits me this year.  Yet we're staring down the barrel of April - realistically we have a long way to go, huh

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It’s all entertaining. It’s like you all forgot what is a normal winter in colder sections of New England.

Having a consistent pack in Jan and Feb is normal lol. I average 60” a year.

 

I average the same as you and consistent snowpack for the better part of two months has not been common for several years.

False.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Winter ended Feb 25th and I had <40” snow vs average of 60+ but “normal winter” because we maintained a pack.

This place has mid Atlantic climo (recency) bias now.

 

Nobody said it was normal in terms of snowfall.