March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[Damage In Tolland]

Yup.. nothing but mild to at times times warm Spring & Stein right thru end of Morch 

[kdxken]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah was cool. I was surprised that it’s more than that as well. They have that nature walk with the lights etc. 12-18 still otg there.  Completely different vibe north of CON.
 

Forgot how difficult it would be to get something to eat in Lincoln this time of year, but luckily found something with a minimal wait. 

It can be a zoo. I wonder how much of New Hampshire's GDP is supplied by Lincoln ? The cops always have someone with Massachusetts plates pulled over. They're relentless.

[kdxken]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup.. nothing but mild to at times times warm Spring & Stein right thru end of Morch 

Not sure where you're getting Stein from.

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Not sure where you're getting Stein from.

Looks juicy potentially next weekend with high dews ahead of the next front.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

Looks juicy potentially next weekend with high dews ahead of the next front.

Yeah other than that warm n wet one looks Steiny 

[H2Otown_WX]

Classic backdoor setup on Thursday showing up on last night's Euro:

[H2Otown_WX]

Also Wednesday looks absolutely awful with temps similar to Thursday. I'm skeptical of any blowtorch solution unless it gets inside D5.

[dendrite]

It’s a “front” door, but the sfc high stays nosed in for a bit before it’s quickly flushed out late next week. Wednesday will still probably be at or even a hair AN down there. It’s 1-2 days near normal in a regime of well AN. It’s early March…if we’re treating a day in the upper 40s in CT as cold then it’s a warm pattern.

[H2Otown_WX]

Just now, dendrite said:

It’s a “front” door, but the sfc high stays nosed in for a bit before it’s quickly flushed out late next week. Wednesday will still probably be at or even a hair AN down there. It’s  1-2 days near normal in a regime of well AN. It’s early March…if we’re treating a day in the upper 40s in CT as cold then it’s a warm pattern.

GFS has it in the 30s here Thursday. Idk, maybe the warm pattern pans out starting Friday but this time of year I'm skeptical. And sorry for not realizing that's a front door setup. I'm dumb. Also, fwiw the GEFS and EPS show a below normal pattern returning D11-15.

[Sn0waddict]

15 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Also Wednesday looks absolutely awful with temps similar to Thursday. I'm skeptical of any blowtorch solution unless it gets inside D5.

I mean it is early march. With every few nice days you are gonna get some ratters as well.  Next weekend is looking quite mild at the moment as well.

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

GFS has it in the 30s here Thursday. Idk, maybe the warm pattern pans out starting Friday but this time of year I'm skeptical. And sorry for not realizing that's a front door setup. I'm dumb. Also, fwiw the GEFS and EPS show a below normal pattern returning D11-15.

Nah…no one is dumb. It gets a little wedgy Wed/Thu. GFS is probably low 40s down there Thu. EPS doesn’t look too frigid to me. It’ll have to come down at some point…maybe a couple of BN days in there, but it looks AN overall…especially since much of the region will be wiping out pack and SNE will be out of mud season. 
 

It’s going to be difficult to avoid warmth with this…

[scoob40]

Guess I should go under for midweek based on this; https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wggb/weather/7day_arc.jpg

[powderfreak]

HRRR is fairly robust for tonight’s clipper from here to the Mainers/KLEW.

[H2Otown_WX]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s going to be difficult to avoid warmth with this…

Yeah, that's a nice parcel trajectory for us to torch. Well, looking forward to it...just bummed about Wednesday even though I'm working anyway. Was hoping I could enjoy a BDL tarmac torch.

[rimetree]

Thought I'd have at least one more inch of snow to put us over 40 for the season but I'm having my doubts. Long ways to go yet so we'll see. Either way, things modestly improved in the snow department over the last two winters.

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems AN

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

It can be a zoo. I wonder how much of New Hampshire's GDP is supplied by Lincoln ? The cops always have someone with Massachusetts plates pulled over. They're relentless.

On the way to there I saw them sitting sneaky on the back roads. Also saw someone pulled over. The revenue service for NH fully at work. 

[Torch Tiger]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup.. nothing but mild to at times times warm Spring & Stein right thru end of Morch 

a few folks still hanging on for cold/snow, bless their hearts.

[Sn0waddict]

Had a few flurries here. Last snowflakes until next winter?

 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Nah…no one is dumb. It gets a little wedgy Wed/Thu. GFS is probably low 40s down there Thu. EPS doesn’t look too frigid to me. It’ll have to come down at some point…maybe a couple of BN days in there, but it looks AN overall…especially since much of the region will be wiping out pack and SNE will be out of mud season. 
 

It’s going to be difficult to avoid warmth with this…

I'm happy with 43 if the sun's shining and the winds are light.  Nape factor will be above an 8::10 in that setting and won't feel chilly at all.   Move the wind around and it quickly reverses, but those synoptics don't look that way at the moment. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

"warm pattern"  or not, the operational runs just have been unrelenting in putting out synoptic complexions that are clearly underperforming the teleconnector correlations. 

Not sure what's up with that. This kind of Euro for example ...  does this negative nodal clown show right through a -2 PNA.    Guess we can cancel global warming now

   

[H2Otown_WX]

37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"warm pattern"  or not, the operational runs just have been unrelenting in putting out synoptic complexions that are clearly underperforming the teleconnector correlations. 

Not sure what's up with that. This kind of Euro for example ...  does this negative nodal clown show right through a -2 PNA.    Guess we can cancel global warming now

   

Yeah Euro has an impressive one day cold shot with -20C 850s in NNE for the first full day of Spring lol. A few colder days prior to that but also some really warm days. I think I saw close to 70 for the 18th or so.

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, NoCORH4L said:

It's real. Long Island is like the Cape, all pitch pines. 

Even a few shortleaf pines, one of the South's Big Four (longleaf, loblolly, slash, shortleaf) at its northerly extent.  Pines and oaks on sand, classic fire type forest, similar to the Jersey pine barrens.

[Boston Bulldog]

Pretty severe brush fire outbreak across Long Island today. They aren't strangers to wildfires out there though, they've had some big burns such as the Sunrise fire back in the 90s.

I do a lot of wildfire risk modeling in my line of work and it's always stood out to me that the risk in the pine barrens of New Jersey and Suffolk County NY is substantially higher than anywhere in New England. Saw a lot of talk this past Fall speculating if a large destuctive wildfire (with urban conflagration potential) would happen due to the drought - don't think it could happen in MA or CT, but the Hamptons are an area to watch in the future. 

[dendrite]

Yeah we’ll see. It seems we reach a point every spring where the models want to keep digging extreme cold here in the extended, but they eventually realize the season we’re in and they all significantly moderate as we approach go-time. I’m not saying we’re there yet, but it’s in the back of my mind considering the pack reductions we’ll see right up into PQ.

[mreaves]

Lake Champlain still has lots of ice.