March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[H2Otown_WX]

Don't know what you warminstas are confused about. Both the GFS and Euro show us struggling to reach 50 Wednesday and Thursday.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Don't know what you warminstas are confused about. Both the GFS and Euro show us struggling to reach 50 Wednesday and Thursday.

That front sagging south mid week has been consistently evident on the models for 4 days ... not sure that really constitutes "keeps getting pushed back". 

This post 10th period was evidenced as an oscillatory pattern in general for a week's worth of guidance, too.  There was some suggestion when this was a distant outlook that perhaps a bigger warm event might be out there, but it only lasted 2 days before what we are seeing now in the models ever since.

That all said, they are all putting up 560 dm thicknesses over the entire NE conus, with 850s nearing +10C (13 over western NYS!) this next Saturday and Sunday. SW wind mixing deep layer atmosphere.  Should that prevail ...any sun at all at it will be 70 - there's aspect there for warmth/spring enthusiasts to celebrate.   

 

[H2Otown_WX]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That front sagging south mid week has been consistently evident on the models for 4 days ago ... not sure that really constitutes "keeps getting pushed back". 

This post 10th period was evidenced as an oscillatory pattern in general for a week's worth of guidance, too.  There was some suggestion when this was a distant outlook that perhaps a bigger warm event might be out there, but it only lasted 2 days before what we are seeing now in the models ever since.

That all said, they are all putting up a 560 dm thicknesses over the entire NE conus, with 850s nearing +10C (13 over western NYS!) this next Saturday and Sunday. SW wind mixing deep layer atmosphere.  Should that prevail ...any sun at all at it will be 70 - there's aspect there fore warmth/spring enthusiasts to celebrate.   

 

Right. But the regime you're describing was shown a few days ago to occur Wednesday and maybe even Thursday but definitely Wednesday was being highlighted as a potential mid to upper 60s day. Just wondering if as we get closer to next weekend the same step down occurs?

[Torch Tiger]

19 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Don't know what you warminstas are confused about. Both the GFS and Euro show us struggling to reach 50 Wednesday and Thursday.

50's Wednesday (which is well above avg, btw) and yeah cools down to 48-52 Thursday, still above avg

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Right. But the regime you're describing was shown a few days ago to occur Wednesday and maybe even Thursday but definitely Wednesday was being highlighted as a potential mid to upper 60s day. Just wondering if as we get closer to next weekend the same step down occurs?

I look at this stuff every day.  I did not see that in the models once since 3 or more days ago.

Not sure what you were looking at but cheers -

there's no push back tho.

[dendrite]

It’s pretty warm overall. Maybe Wed-Thurs is a mild down, but it’s still the first half of March. 

[H2Otown_WX]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I look at this stuff every day.  I did not see that in the models once since 3 or more days ago.

Not sure what you were looking at but cheers -

there's no push back tho.

Well here's the 12z Euro from Thursday for Wednesday afternoon:

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Well here's the 12z Euro from Thursday for Wednesday afternoon:

Please... Don't bother trying to get your point across. You're either going to get the big X symbol ( mostly from DIL and TT ).... or a lengthy explanation that could have been said in 1 sentence. ;-) 

[kdxken]

Wow folks seem on edge. Enjoying perhaps the last fire pit with temperatures in the '20s for the year.

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

It’s pretty warm overall. Maybe Wed-Thurs is a mild down, but it’s still the first half of March. 

No big torch however . Scooter's not going to be cutting the lawn in his Speedo.

[Snowedin]

2 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Well here's the 12z Euro from Thursday for Wednesday afternoon:

The trend is our friend as they say. Soon those numbers will be 60s and 70s, with the occasional mood dampening kick in the gut, back door cold front to knock us down a few pegs. At some point, the avalanche of warmth will no longer be contained and we’ll be sweatily swatting away flies and mosquitoes while the powder dude is showing off his last few moldy snow piles in a last ditch effort to summon the dastardly snow gods for one last hurrah!

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, kdxken said:

No big torch however . Scooter's not going to be cutting the lawn in his Speedo.

Could be near 60° Mon/Tue. Then maybe warmer over the weekend. It’s not 2012, but it’s pretty nice for early March.

[mreaves]

27 minutes ago, kdxken said:

No big torch however . Scooter's not going to be cutting the lawn in his Speedo.

Something we can all be thankful for. 

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Could be near 60° Mon/Tue. Then maybe warmer over the weekend. It’s not 2012, but it’s pretty nice for early March.

I hate that I’m looking forward to some warmer days.  Getting old.  With the time change, and late day light… my most uplifting time of year is when sunlight is on the increase.  Which is weird for someone who loves the winter environment.  But sun and warmth over winter snowpack, big fan at the right time of year.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Could be near 60° Mon/Tue. Then maybe warmer over the weekend. It’s not 2012, but it’s pretty nice for early March.

Rain over the weekend though right?

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Something we can all be thankful for. 

As long as you stay away from seedy bars should be good until at least May.

[powderfreak]

With that said, we have a clipper coming that should lead to some accumulations.  Stat padders.

Euro looks most believable given the set-up (above). The GFS has been over-doing the orographic QPF in numerous events

 

Reality could be the average the GGEM has between the GFS/ECM.

[powderfreak]

Fire too.  Long Island.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Fire too.  Long Island.

Wut?  Has it been that dry down there?  I mean obviously winds can spread things quickly but LI wildfires were not on the March bingo card. 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Fire too.  Long Island.

Looks awfully green there in that picture..are those all pines? 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Looks awfully green there in that picture..are those all pines? 

Yeah looks fake 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yeah looks fake 

Yes, Exactly. 

[NoCORH4L]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Looks awfully green there in that picture..are those all pines? 

It's real. Long Island is like the Cape, all pitch pines. 

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, kdxken said:

No big torch however . Scooter's not going to be cutting the lawn in his Speedo.

You’re right, just raking in it instead.

[CoastalWx]

Boy she she ever let us out. Not even a struggle. 

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Boy she she ever let us out. Not even a struggle. 

Gone

[dendrite]

In like a lamb. Out like a lamb. 

[dendrite]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boy she she ever let us out. Not even a struggle. 

Did you guys hit up the ice castles?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Did you guys hit up the ice castles?

Yeah was cool. I was surprised that it’s more than that as well. They have that nature walk with the lights etc. 12-18 still otg there.  Completely different vibe north of CON.
 

Forgot how difficult it would be to get something to eat in Lincoln this time of year, but luckily found something with a minimal wait. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 3/18/2024 at 4:10 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Onto winter of 25/26…

Good call sir. Lucky, but still good.