Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 01:13 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:13 PM 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Eh, it’s had some issues too in the 5-7 period. I still prefer the non AI models for now and just treat the AI stuff as another model a toy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted yesterday at 01:26 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:26 PM -NAO will help generate that mid-late March ocean bomb that will blue ball us all one more time as the icing on the cake to this horrific winter. Mark it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 01:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:30 PM That line that rolls through tomorrow evening is going to pack a punch in terms of rainfall intensity. Forcing and dynamics are enough to where there may be some embedded thunder/lightning but instability is quite limited. It is possible maybe within Fairfield County in southwestern Connecticut could see a localized damaging wind gust. Should see some gusty winds though for most out ahead of that line...nothing wild though...25-35 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted yesterday at 01:33 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:33 PM Torch it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 01:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:40 PM 1 hour ago, Cold Miser said: The winter torches usually hold true days, and weeks ahead of time. They did not this winter though…every time they were showed in the long range, they got muted down to nothing/almost nothing this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted yesterday at 01:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:45 PM Hopefully you feel better soon, but don't rush to retrieve the snow maps if you are. I'm ready for 60s so trust me I aintSent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 01:48 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:48 PM 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: They did not this winter though. The cutters and southern storms have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 01:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:51 PM 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The cutters and southern storms have. The temps did not. The southern storms were when we were frigid..so they were suppressed. And it was frigid down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 01:52 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:52 PM 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: The temps did not. The southern storms were when we were frigid..so they were suppressed. Right....temps didn't, but every form of unsavory storm track did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 01:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:56 PM 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right....temps didn't, but every form of unsavory storm track did. Oh for sure…and then some. Always something to wreck any chances in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:00 PM How did BDL manage to still run +1.2 for the winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted yesterday at 02:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:03 PM This season was plagued by bad phasing. Could never get the streams to come together at the right time even when some big boy models said they would. Good thing the door is about closed on this winter. Grade C-. Snow for the holidays and decent snowfall retention saved it from being a total disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 02:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:03 PM 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: How did BDL manage to still run +1.2 for the winter Because * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:06 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:06 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: Because * Seriously...I mean if this doesn't make it obvious then I don't know what will. BOS was -0.9 ORH/PVD about average I don't remember when ORH was looked at/corrected and I thought there were some questions too...but BDL somehow getting +1.2 when these other sites were not even remotely close...bogus. It's just crapping up the data base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:10 PM Wow AFW 66 knots, DFW 64 knots with that line of thunderstorms this morning...why we can't get that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 02:11 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:11 PM Just now, weatherwiz said: Wow AFW 66 knots, DFW 64 knots with that line of thunderstorms this morning...why we can't get that. We will 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:17 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:17 PM 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Seriously...I mean if this doesn't make it obvious then I don't know what will. BOS was -0.9 ORH/PVD about average I don't remember when ORH was looked at/corrected and I thought there were some questions too...but BDL somehow getting +1.2 when these other sites were not even remotely close...bogus. It's just crapping up the data base. I had +2 to +4 for DM. Hopefully March corrects back a bit warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:25 PM 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had +2 to +4 for DM. Hopefully March corrects back a bit warmer. I'm ready for the warm. My 20 minute infatuation with March 9 is over. It was cute to have some fun with it and get all aroused with fantasy but time to revert back to reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:31 PM Wow...I thought the 12z NAM was wet for tomorrow but then I compared to 6z and 0z and didn't realize how wild the 6z was with rainfall totals. I would have to think there could be some minor flooding concerns tomorrow if the NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Wow...I thought the 12z NAM was wet for tomorrow but then I compared to 6z and 0z and didn't realize how wild the 6z was with rainfall totals. I would have to think there could be some minor flooding concerns tomorrow if the NAM is correct. Have the ham radio at the ready. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 02:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:47 PM 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Wow...I thought the 12z NAM was wet for tomorrow but then I compared to 6z and 0z and didn't realize how wild the 6z was with rainfall totals. I would have to think there could be some minor flooding concerns tomorrow if the NAM is correct. Most guidance is in the .50-1” range. . A little more to the west of us. Another meh event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:52 PM 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most guidance is in the .50-1” range. . A little more to the west of us. Another meh event I think that makes the most sense. There may be some convective feedback going on with the NAM. The NAM seems to want to slow the progression of everything a bit and then develops a few weak waves (which could be convective feedback) and prolongs the heavier precipitation with some back building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM So Am I correct in saying that the GFS seemed to be more correct this winter with the cold temperatures over the Euro forecast. Where the Euro was much more reliable when it came to showing the big storms being a miss are going to our South ( Where's the GFS kept showing these big bombs hitting us before finally backing off ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM 57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The cutters and southern storms have. Cutters in December, none in Jan-Feb (for the first time since about 2013). No big storms, however. In 26 winters, we've had 20 with at least one double-digit dump - 77% - but none so far in this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 03:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:03 PM 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: That line that rolls through tomorrow evening is going to pack a punch in terms of rainfall intensity. Forcing and dynamics are enough to where there may be some embedded thunder/lightning but instability is quite limited. It is possible maybe within Fairfield County in southwestern Connecticut could see a localized damaging wind gust. Should see some gusty winds though for most out ahead of that line...nothing wild though...25-35 mph. Actually scratch that...I totally assessed this incorrectly. That main slug of heavy rain moving through, while there may be some embedded convection, any risk for strong wind gusts is actually tied into the potential for scattered thunderstorms to re-develop behind that area...but that doesn't apply to us, that will be more central PA like what is advertised on the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted yesterday at 03:11 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:11 PM Gray, ME was -3 departure for Feb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 03:29 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:29 PM Tracking spring's arrival ... ... Thursday mid day to late afternoon looks spectacular on this 12z NAM FOUS grid. +7 at 900 mb and +2 at 800 mb, with at least partial sun - whatever the machine guidance has, you go above it by a click or two. I checked the 500 and 300 mb relative humidity and they are <50% so the cirrus pollution will be minimal. That all spells probably the first maxing of a mixing level due to daytime heating. If we get +5C at 850 in that general synopsis we'll be near 70 in the 2-meters Granted, this is just the NAM ... but I'm imagining what that will be like. It's been months since any temperatures even close to that - it will be a 'spring fever' at least for 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 04:11 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:11 PM 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: How did BDL manage to still run +1.2 for the winter Cuz it’s F’d up. Totally Ridiculous. But it goes in the books. Such crap. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted yesterday at 04:18 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:18 PM 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: That line that rolls through tomorrow evening is going to pack a punch in terms of rainfall intensity. Forcing and dynamics are enough to where there may be some embedded thunder/lightning but instability is quite limited. It is possible maybe within Fairfield County in southwestern Connecticut could see a localized damaging wind gust. Should see some gusty winds though for most out ahead of that line...nothing wild though...25-35 mph. Here comes our best thunderstorm of the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted yesterday at 04:48 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:48 PM 36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Cuz it’s F’d up. Totally Ridiculous. But it goes in the books. Such crap. BDL is +1.2 like the Pats, Jets and Giants made the playoffs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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