weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago I don't know if I really like comparing March setups or March potential to like December, January, or even February. The wavelengths really start changing during the first half of the month and we start introducing the hemispheric shift between seasons...lots more chaos involved - which can go good or bad and sometimes the change in wavelengths can mean all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, weatherwiz said: I don't know if I really like comparing March setups or March potential to like December, January, or even February. The wavelengths really start changing during the first half of the month and we start introducing the hemispheric shift between seasons...lots more chaos involved - which can go good or bad and sometimes the change in wavelengths can mean all the difference. Yup...just being negative. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago I have no complaints about the ridge on this GFS suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Wow gefs 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yup...just being negative. I don't blame you I mean I am all ready for full out Spring but if there is a chance or something looks good...why the hell not. I do think one huge difference between now and what we've seen this winter is such an intense system that is going to end up southwest of Greenland. This is going to re-define the whole structure of the Arctic and this is helping to enhance a PAC which wasn't too terrible looking but going from meh to something noteworthy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Wow gefs Uhhh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago GEFS looks like they will end up similarly, but slighly more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Gentlemen…is this potential for Sunday, Or Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago Get the EURO suite to look like that and I'll grab the laptop. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Gentlemen…is this potential for Sunday, Or Monday? sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Gentlemen…is this potential for Sunday, Or Monday? Verbatim more of a Sunday ordeal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Get the EURO suite to look like that and I'll grab the laptop. Yep. Not biting unless other guidance latches on…but particularly the euro. GGEM and Ukie can do what they want but if GFS/Euro start agreeing then it’s a legit threat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago A wise man once said don't do it. 1 2 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is actually pretty ominous mean at hr 135.... Danger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago I may do it if the Euro makes some big changes. But don't bet your house on it, or you'll likely be a weenie without a home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago It's a good event with -7C at 925 to start, I already know it's wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago *smacks the GFS with the 5 Knuckle Shuffle*Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is actually pretty ominous mean at hr 135.... oh f so it is... jesus here's the 00z vs 12z run correction for D6: I will also add ...this happened last week, folks. We had a run or two where this huge single run explosion of presentation lurched on, then.... vanished. I remember saying to Will in a post back then, that it seems like there may really be something there worth monitoring, but perhaps something peculiar about the model challenges IN in this period, were/are just masking it. ...Sometimes a run gets through the mask so to speak - we'll see... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. Not biting unless other guidance latches on…but particularly the euro. GGEM and Ukie can do what they want but if GFS/Euro start agreeing then it’s a legit threat. FWIW the CMC did make some nice shifts synoptically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. Not biting unless other guidance latches on…but particularly the euro. GGEM and Ukie can do what they want but if GFS/Euro start agreeing then it’s a legit threat. something is going on that's a little off here. you don't get the entire ensemble mass to move as dramatically as this, in a single run - at D6 no less... It's one thing if the operational version meanders off into a fantasy for a run or two. But these giant movements have been sharing the space, en masse, systemically at the same time. You probably don't recall my mentioning last week with all the noise in here... that there may be something legit there, but it's perhaps ( supposition here...) just being unusually masked by the circumstantial hemisphere of shenanigans going on... This thing did this pop up out of nowhere act last week on a couple of runs by the way. Went from barely discernible to an ominious look... , only to vanish. It's been yawing back and forth with very odd variance 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's a good event with -7C at 925 to start, I already know it's wrong. AI has nothing along with the euro just a phantom storm by the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago coldest winter since 2014 and my area got 8 inches of snow so disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Relax Kevin .... we're talking about the GFS. There's something off with the GEFs forecasting, perhaps systemically. No one said this means were getting that to transpire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tossed Lol .. The only thing you're tossing is salad 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: AI has nothing along with the euro just a phantom storm by the gfs Not sure I would describe it as a phantom storm by the gfs. It's a product of phasing...the GFS is more favorable with both streams and promotes a better likelihood for phasing. It's not like a GFS solution doesn't make sense. If the GFS solution didn't make much sense then I would agree it is phantom but it wouldn't take much from the euro to output something closer to the GFS...and on the other hand it wouldn't take much from the GFS to lessen this idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Not sure I would describe it as a phantom storm by the gfs. It's a product of phasing...the GFS is more favorable with both streams and promotes a better likelihood for phasing. It's not like a GFS solution doesn't make sense. If the GFS solution didn't make much sense then I would agree it is phantom but it wouldn't take much from the euro to output something closer to the GFS...and on the other hand it wouldn't take much from the GFS to lessen this idea. the CMC and UKMET are also much better looking out west. I am definitely taking the GFS with a grain of salt but it's not that far off, and the PNA has been trending better for a while now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Not sure I would describe it as a phantom storm by the gfs. It's a product of phasing...the GFS is more favorable with both streams and promotes a better likelihood for phasing. It's not like a GFS solution doesn't make sense. If the GFS solution didn't make much sense then I would agree it is phantom but it wouldn't take much from the euro to output something closer to the GFS...and on the other hand it wouldn't take much from the GFS to lessen this idea. Yeah it's the age old dilemma of whether the model run can actually happen or not. One has to remember it's about probability's > 0 and < 100 ... there's not absolute. For starters, the models are not putting out solutions that are physically impossible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago While it’s probably the Northern stream which we need changes with, this is a pretty substantial change with the wave out west thru 72 hours. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago At least it's inside the day 7..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago What's an 800 mile move in two cycles between friends. Couple more and it will be over the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now