March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[ineedsnow]

a couple big hits on the GEFS but most are meh

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December has been worse.

Not here 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not here 

They have both sucked, no doubt.

[ineedsnow]

some EPS members also going wild but its a long shot

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December has been worse.

#6weekwinters

[40/70 Benchmark]

I need a good December...its been so long. I had the big event in 2019, but like 19" of snow were gone inside of a week. I got like a half inch this past 12/21 event.

[SJonesWX]

19 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looking forward to more dinner pics at the broke back rub and tug pub. Pancakes, pack, and peckers?

had lunch there yesterday, no pics, sorry

11 hours ago, mreaves said:

I told you!  The only time I've ridden there was when I was buying a sled.  It was insane and the trails were mush.

got up to Pittsburg yesterday afternoon but haven’t been out yet. the number of trucks/ trailers heading south was insane. Trails always suck in NH on the school vacation weeks, especially on the weekends, which is why I am here all week.

and it’s fucking -14 this morning 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

some EPS members also going wild but its a long shot

We track =)

[dryslot]

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Who or what organizations pay for the grooming and maintenance of the fleet?

Those things aren’t cheap.  Must be tough though when groomers are down.

Grants from the state, Reimbursements for fuel as well for maintaining the ITS trail system from MSA (Maine Snowmobile Association), Club membership dues, Reimbursement percentage of sled registration back to the clubs by some cities and towns for maintaining recreational trails, And fundraising by the clubs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We track =)

We salute

[Cold Miser]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We track =)

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We salute

21 bun salute.

[radarman]

Nice springlike 4 degrees this AM. Any crocuses that have poked up in valley low spots with southern exposure must be loving it.

[UnitedWx]

Was down to 8 in Westfield this A.M. Honestly, I'm done with these temps once we hit March

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We track =)

Chasing ghosts

[Snowcrazed71]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most of them have been last couple years. It’s not winter 

But December is a big winter month, at least according to you LOL

[jbenedet]

March sun for the win.

up to 18 off a low of 3.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

GFS trying to cancel the torch in the LR. Granted it's just one op run but at the end it has MSP naping nude in the low 60s while we sit in marine mid 40s puke.

It's not just the GFS...

All guidance sourcing, including their respective teleconnector derivatives started insidiously changing matters, beginning last Thurs or Friday, and have been eroding at the warm complexion all weekend since. Almost by sense more than coherence...

The oper. Euro actually has even gone so far as to propose winter event around the Ides - however zero confidence for the time being ...  But it's the laughable insult of it at all, considering what had been suggested all along. 

That's the usual consequence in dealing with extended ranges, but in this case it is being compounded even further by three factors:  

1  March extended range modeling performance in particularly (due to seasonal change and solar forcing), often enough proves to have been an extra special piece of shit. 

2  Warm anomalies are the most fragile, non-committed metric of all handling in guidance as a general practice. Small perturbations that may even go less noticed ... decapitate and/or redistributes it geographically, and it causes larger error compared to when following cold anomalies.   While both tend to be over amplified, in general, too.  This goes both ways.  They over and/or under perform more frequently, but the warmer side varies more. 

3  The sensitivity as I look now through mid month, appears to be coming from realigning the super synoptic aspects between the mid continent and the N-NE  Atlantic.  There's been either a manifestation of positive height anomalies, or "behaviorally" wrt to the circulation, depending on model and cycle.  In either case, suppressing the flow back SW of where the -PNA was previously sending heights N.  The ridge in the SE ends up pancaked ... completely different scenario if all that happens.  Whether there is a linear (coherent block) or non-linear  (when flow acts like there is one when it isn't apparently there) that is a -NAO going on, and either is causing the previous warm Ides to do what most do in this anus of season and region of the planet.   Here is the problem with all this ... the NAO is an even more miserable piece of modeled shit to index.  That's code for don't believe it - but I'm sure that won't stop people from licking the toad.   In fact, it's not fiction really to claim that half of these (-) or (+) NAO outlooks just don't end up occurring ...  If this factorization goes the other way, it's likely the ridge reasserts and proxies the temperature anomaly on the warm side - usually at the perfect time to ruin all the enabled d-dripper highs.  There is still a -PNA/+EPO in place while the models attempt to change the orbit of Jupiter over one index ... so there's a lot of correction tension pointed on that side.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not just the GFS...

All guidance sourcing, including their respective teleconnector derivatives started insidiously changing matters, beginning last Thurs or Friday, and have been eroding at the warm complexion all weekend since. Almost by sense more than coherence...

The oper. Euro actually has even gone so far as to propose winter event around the Ides - however zero confidence for the time being ...  But it's the laughable insult of it at all, considering what had been suggested all along. 

That's the usual consequence in dealing with extended ranges, but in this case it is being compounded even further by three factors:  

1  March extended range modeling performance in particularly (due to seasonal change and solar forcing), often enough proves to have been an extra special piece of shit. 

2  Warm anomalies are the most fragile, non-committed metric of all handling in guidance as a general practice. Small perturbations that may even go less noticed ... decapitate and/or redistributes it geographically, and it causes larger error compared to when following cold anomalies.   While both tend to be over amplified, in general, too.  This goes both ways.  They over and/or under perform more frequently, but the warmer side varies more. 

3  The sensitivity as I look now through mid month, appears to be coming from realigning the super synoptic aspects between the mid continent and the N-NE  Atlantic.  There's been either a manifestation of positive height anomalies, or "behaviorally" wrt to the circulation, depending on model and cycle.  In either case, suppressing the flow back SW of where the -PNA was previously sending heights N.  The ridge in the SE ends up pancaked ... completely different scenario if all that happens.  Whether there is a linear (coherent block) or non-linear  (when flow acts like there is one when it isn't apparently there) that is a -NAO going on, and either is causing the previous warm Ides to do what most do in this anus of season and region of the planet.   Here is the problem with all this ... the NAO is an even more miserable piece of modeled shit to index.  That's code for don't believe it - but I'm sure that won't stop people from licking the toad.   In fact, it's not fiction really to claim that half of these (-) or (+) NAO outlooks just don't end up occurring ...  If this factorization goes the other way, it's likely the ridge reasserts and proxies the temperature anomaly on the warm side - usually at the perfect time to ruin all the enabled d-dripper highs.  There is still a -PNA/+EPO in place while the models attempt to change the orbit of Jupiter over one index ... so there's a lot of correction tension pointed on that side.

 

 

 MJO's tongue is already hanging out of his cruiser.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

#6weekwinters

It’s been cold consistently this season…in that regard it’s been a good winter. Snowfall sucked cuz we found ways(every way) to fail.  But the cold was and has been consistent this season.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s been cold consistently this season…in that regard it’s been a good winter. Snowfall sucked cuz we found ways(every way) to fail.  But the cold was and has been consistent this season.  

It really wasn't that cold, though....just relative to what we've become accustomed to....a la 1991-2020 climo. It was consistently moderately cold.

[UnitedWx]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 MJO's   is already hanging out of his pants.

FYP

[tamarack]

-14 here this morning, coldest March temp since 2019 and 2nd coldest since 2015.  Probably the last subzero morning this season, unless the SW flow is delayed a bit - temps progged to drop like a rock this evening then slide up after midnight.

March is easily the most variable of the 4 snowiest months, ranging from 0.1" in 2021 to 55.5" twenty years earlier.  88% of total snow falls in those 4 months, with totals below:
DEC   19.2"
JAN   19.9"
FEB    22.1"
MAR   17.4"

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It really wasn't that cold, though....just relative to what we've become accustomed to....a la 1991-2020 climo. It was consistently moderately cold.

I think it's an important distinction ... 

This -EPO dominating 8 week assault, 30 years ago?  

One might wonder if this winter would have been a different beast,  if/when doing some sort of attribution calculus that involves subtracting CC factorization.   It's like you might end up with a quotient that says, "if we were not porked by a warming world, this -EPO winter would have been X cold, not X' cold"

just a broad supposition/curiosity here.  Not declaring CC victory or anything 

 

[CoastalWx]

We didn't decouple, but the 12F here in early March beat the coldest temp of all last winter. So pathetic last winter. And there isn't snowpack right now either.

[Layman]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

2  Warm anomalies are the most fragile, non-committed metric of all handling in guidance as a general practice. Small perturbations that may even go less noticed ... decapitate and/or redistributes it geographically, and it causes larger error compared to when following cold anomalies.   While both tend to be over amplified, in general, too.  This goes both ways.  They over and/or under perform more frequently, but the warmer side varies more. 

 

I may be misunderstanding exactly what you're saying here, but it sounds interesting in that it seems to run counter to other statements I've seen about warmth being easier to forecast and/or maintain in guidance.  I believe that's with respect to comparing to a snowstorm specifically.  Where a storm needs a fair number of variables to come together just right to provide a "decent" event across the region.  My understanding from reading here is that when warmth shows up, it has a higher likelihood of hanging on rather than a big benchmark storm appearing 8 days out in guidance.  I'm assuming both your statement above and the other statements about warmth being easier to maintain can be true.  

[CoastalWx]

I guess it depends. Things are generally warmer than normal due to CC. So in general when you forecast AN temps let’s say for a season like winter, more often than not you’ll be right. Obviously not this winter, but long term you will be. 
 

I think Tip is talking about it being difficult to maintain big time warm temp anomalies this time of year in New England because of our location. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It really wasn't that cold, though....just relative to what we've become accustomed to....a la 1991-2020 climo. It was consistently moderately cold.

Well yes, no record cold here. But as we mentioned last week there were all time records broken all over the country this winter. And it was plenty cold enough here. 15-20” of ice on area ponds and lakes isn’t a mild winter.  But no record cold in NE yes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well yes, no record cold here. But as we mentioned last week there were all time records broken all over the country this winter. And it was plenty cold enough here. 15-20” of ice on area ponds and lakes isn’t a mild winter.  But no record cold in NE yes. 

It wasn't mild by 1991-2020 modern climo, but I think by all past climo it was. Anyway, we go by latest climo period, so it was cold.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess it depends. Things are generally warmer than normal due to CC. So in general when you forecast AN temps let’s say for a season like winter, more often than not you’ll be right. Obviously not this winter, but long term you will be. 
 

I think Tip is talking about it being difficult to maintain big time warm temp anomalies this time of year in New England because of our location. 

Right ...two different aspects in play.

the CC stuff - true

the warm anomalies in the models, particularly in March have less predictive skill than cold ones.    They both error and/or won't be precisely accurate in longer lead guidance, but of the two... warmth has the bigger error potential.   The "our location" has a bullet point list of different aspects that can be expanded upon but no one's going to bother reading them  haha

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS shifting north again