March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would be a nice elevation event as depicted 

I don’t see how this becomes anything but an interior, elevated event. I mean if there was arctic air in place and blocking, sure. But as far as some folks on twitter hyping that this is somehow magically going to become an I-95 DC-BAL-PHL-NYC snowstorm? Yea, skeptical hippo here 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would be a nice elevation event as depicted 

Blue bomb incarnate ... 

   It would be somethin' if there was wind coupled with 33 F S++     

That GGEM solution is oddly deep when looking at the QPF layout/behavior.  It's as though the model deepens the low, prior to the QPF output...  that's backward.    The QPF happens during the bombogen - the lifting air is what causes the goods to fall out.   That's how that works.  This is paltry QPF on the way down to a 960 something low, then it starts getting heavy after the fact.

But, it is also the GGEM beyond 10 minutes in the future so taken with own risk

[DavisStraight]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t see how this becomes anything but an interior, elevated event. I mean if there was arctic air in place and blocking, sure. But as far as some folks on twitter hyping that this is somehow magically going to become an I-95 DC-BAL-PHL-NYC snowstorm? Yea, skeptical hippo here 

I'll be in Maine that weekend so maybe I get lucky being in the right area.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Good luck with perfect phasing in this regime.

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro's not interested ...

In fact, as I was mentioning to Scott earlier in the day ... the 00z op Euro was incongruently too cold looking for the telecon spread ...recent trends also.  This 12z seems to have corrected much of that.   It had the 9th bomb in the 00z run but it's opting on this run for something that's more sensible

[Kitz Craver]

Table isn’t really set with this one. Sell…

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Table isn’t really set with this one. Sell…

When is any storm? Had the table set with any of the models lol. There has been zero consistency with any model showing any storm that we were supposedly supposed to get. So whether we get it or not, these models have been all over the place and unreliable. Let's wait until we're 3 days before the event to see whether or not it's something to talk about

[CoastalWx]

Whenever everyone else sells, we watch and wait. It’s a more active jet with residual cold. 

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

When is any storm? Had the table set with any of the models lol. There has been zero consistency with any model showing any storm that we were supposedly supposed to get. So whether we get it or not, these models have been all over the place and unreliable. Let's wait until we're 3 days before the event to see whether or not it's something to talk about

Id say yes, all winter we have had a favorable set up that hasn’t materialized to its full potential. The table was set IMO. We also had, if I remember correctly, at least 3 storms that had cross model guidance long term-mid term showing a fairly robust signal that we lost in the short term. That’s essentially my point. We have had much more favorable set ups this winter that didn’t pan out, this event doesn’t have that, so I’m more skeptical anything of consequence happens.

[H2Otown_WX]

Seems like a bit of a torch cancel showing up on guidance. I guess that's to be expected this time of year.

[Kitz Craver]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Whenever everyone else sells, we watch and wait. It’s a more active jet with residual cold. 

Sandbar Scooter Cancel? 

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Whenever everyone else sells, we watch and wait. It’s a more active jet with residual cold. 

Yep. esp in March....you get a lot more convection down south this month and things don't always play quite as "smoothly" on guidance as it does in the heart of winter. Still obviously maintaining a lot of skepticism on a big event, but I'm not dismissing it with this much lead time.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. esp in March....you get a lot more convection down south this month and things don't always play quite as "smoothly" on guidance as it does in the heart of winter. Still obviously maintaining a lot of skepticism on a big event, but I'm not dismissing it with this much lead time.

Right. I think we’re all skeptical,  but it’s not like all signals are an emphatic no. Something to watch.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Whenever everyone else sells, we watch and wait. It’s a more active jet with residual cold. 

OK Metfan. GL.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

OK Metfan. GL.

I'm not calling for anything. But I don't see what's wrong keeping an eye on it. This coming from an already beaten man.  

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

OK Metfan. GL.

Like you never seen snow before in March. You live in SNE. 

[Spanks45]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Like you never seen snow before in March. You live in SNE. 

Look at my snowfall totals in my signature for March....they are since I have moved to Southbury, not exactly the most exciting snow month here recently, especially when it pretty much melts as soon as the sun comes up. Either we are due or it's the same old garbage, just a different year......

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. esp in March....you get a lot more convection down south this month and things don't always play quite as "smoothly" on guidance as it does in the heart of winter. Still obviously maintaining a lot of skepticism on a big event, but I'm not dismissing it with this much lead time.

You almost wonder if there's really a bigger deal lurking for the 9th but there may be circumstantial shitty noise sort of hiding it?

Look at this 12z GEFs mean out of nowhere with bright beacon at 200 hours - this was absent on the recent runs until you get back to 12z yesterday and it had it again.  It's like it's there but being occasionally masked by something.   This below gets a final hurrah taken care of, no doubt.  EPS, nada for the most part ... wave on the front rocketing east.

[weatherwiz]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. esp in March....you get a lot more convection down south this month and things don't always play quite as "smoothly" on guidance as it does in the heart of winter. Still obviously maintaining a lot of skepticism on a big event, but I'm not dismissing it with this much lead time.

Could be an active March across the deep South for severe, especially moving towards mid-month with some signals for more expansive area of 60F dews and maybe even pushing upper 60's into the Gulf Coast. But if we can keep the theme for strong lows to develop downwind of the southern Rockies and get some assistance with NAO/AO, there is plenty of cold still nearby so if we can get any of those lows to pass more towards the mid-Atlantic we have a shot.

[tamarack]

32 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Look at my snowfall totals in my signature for March....they are since I have moved to Southbury, not exactly the most exciting snow month here recently, especially when it pretty much melts as soon as the sun comes up. Either we are due or it's the same old garbage, just a different year......

The warming climate has hit March far more in SNE than the other 3 'big snow' months.  60-70 years ago when I was growing up in NNJ things were different.  At Oak Ridge reservoir, near our place, the 12 winters 55-56 thru 66-67 averaged 57.1" and all 4 months were double digits, with March (15.6") at the top.  That span had 34 events with 6"+, 13 of which had 10+ and 5 over 20.  Three of those 5 bombs came in March, 21" in 56, 28" in 58 and 23.5" in 60.  (One each in Jan/24"-Feb/27" 61)

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The warming climate has hit March far more in SNE than the other 3 'big snow' months.  60-70 years ago when I was growing up in NNJ things were different.  At Oak Ridge reservoir, near our place, the 12 winters 55-56 thru 66-67 averaged 57.1" and all 4 months were double digits, with March (15.6") at the top.  That span had 34 events with 6"+, 13 of which had 10+ and 5 over 20.  Three of those 5 bombs came in March, 21" in 56, 28" in 58 and 23.5" in 60.  (One each in Jan/24"-Feb/27" 61)

Well to be fair..we’ve had some big March’s since 2000…so I don’t know if I’d say that about the climate. But that’s just me.   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Like you never seen snow before in March. You live in SNE. 

Yes I know my climo. Meteorology over weenieology. Take notes. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Something is coming in the 7th to 14th period.  Might just be tracking ghosts, but I think we will have something to track at least.

[ineedsnow]

Driving home and got stuck behind a truck putting down brine on rt 2.. it seems like a waste for a dusting of snow if that..

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro OP manages two storms near the benchmark on the 8th and 10th, with BL temps not cold enough for snow here.  For now, just something to 'keep an eye on' to see if anything in that timeframe manages to make it to day 4. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Euro OP manages two storms near the benchmark on the 8th and 10th, with BL temps not cold enough for snow here.  For now, just something to 'keep an eye on' to see if anything in that timeframe manages to make it to day 4. 

First step is just getting something worthy of keeping an eye on. 

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

First step is just getting something worthy of keeping an eye on. 

Not worthy yet…but maybe I’ll catch the 10th if it’s real..coming home that morning.