March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Get down there.  They got crushed with record cold and snow to 5 weeks ago. I guess it’s their year. 

Not too mention they had multiple tropical hits too in the Fall. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well the euro was quite interesting.

it's quite incongruently cold, spanning the local hemispheric scale, with respect to where the teleconnectors have long argued we are heading - and still do as of last night's EPS derivatives. 

The EPS derived EPO has shut off the cold supply.  The PNA is negative after the 9th - yet the operational version parts company and meanders into a +PNA ..  There's also a tinge there of ignoring seasonal change, which is going to force the hand of the models as we are nearing the equinox and beyond.  While and if the polar fields are shut off and the mid latitudes are left open to being pummeled by increasing solar, that's dubious what the Euro's doing for that as well.

There's a lot there that is out of line.   I'm not sure how much of the Euro can be trusted because of that.

The GEFs are slightly more uniform then the EPS mean, but the EPS mean is still not supporting the Euro operational and remain warm implicating.  

The op Euro is just a straight up odd-ball cold outlier.    We'll see I guess.  

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's quite incongruently cold, spanning the local hemispheric scale, with respect to where the teleconnectors have long argued we are heading - and still do as of last night's EPS derivatives. 

The EPS derived EPO has shut off the cold supply.  The PNA is negative after the 9th - yet the operational version parts company and meanders into a +PNA ..  There's also a tinge there of ignoring seasonal change, which is going to force the hand of the models as we are nearing the equinox and beyond.  While and if the polar fields are shut off and the mid latitudes are left open to being pummeled by increasing solar, that's dubious what the Euro's doing for that as well.

There's a lot there that is out of line.   I'm not sure how much of the Euro can be trusted because of that.

The GEFs are slightly more uniform then the EPS mean, but the EPS mean is still not supporting the Euro operational and remain warm implicating.  

The op Euro is just a straight up odd-ball cold outlier.    We'll see I guess.  

EPS does have a signal around the 9th and then in the 11-15 day sneaks BN heights in srn Canada. Kind of looks like a gradient look.

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS does have a signal around the 9th and then in the 11-15 day sneaks BN heights in srn Canada. Kind of looks like a gradient look.

I knew it, you still have a glimpse of hope in that brain of yours. Lol. Just joking with you, but seriously, it would be nice to get that last hurrah!! One of our trusted Mets here in CT, Gil Simmons, mentioned that he thinks we have two more shots of wintry weather. So we'll see

[Layman]

12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

whatever happens on the 9th 

this just 3 days later. spectacular turn around

 

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

90 in Morch is crazy if it happens 

Could I please ask how the pictured temp anomaly map relates to a potential 90 degree day?  I'm not sure how it's being interpreted to get there.  

If 90 is unrealistic, what do the seasoned folks here take away from this map with respect to the potential for on-the-ground warmth?  i.e.:  what would be a reasonable ground level temp that could be seen if this verifies?

My cursory, layman's attempt to understand it says that at 850 hPa (4,500'ish up - I had to look it up) temps could be 6-7 degrees C over most of New England...?  Or, is it 6-7 degrees C above normal temps for March 12th?  If it's above the traditional normal temps for March 12th, are those identified anywhere within this graphic or in a key, etc?  

Thanks for any assistance to help me understand better!

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I knew it, you still have a glimpse of hope in that brain of yours. Lol. Just joking with you, but seriously, it would be nice to get that last hurrah!! One of our trusted Mets here in CT, Gil Simmons, mentioned that he thinks we have two more shots of wintry weather. So we'll see

I have very low expectations right now. Just something to keep an eye on. I also wonder when we get passed that torch potential after the 10th or so...will we see bowling ball season try to play with the remaining cryosphere cold in Canada. 

[Snowcrazed71]

12 minutes ago, Layman said:

 

Could I please ask how the pictured temp anomaly map relates to a potential 90 degree day?  I'm not sure how it's being interpreted to get there.  

If 90 is unrealistic, what do the seasoned folks here take away from this map with respect to the potential for on-the-ground warmth?  i.e.:  what would be a reasonable ground level temp that could be seen if this verifies?

My cursory, layman's attempt to understand it says that at 850 hPa (4,500'ish up - I had to look it up) temps could be 6-7 degrees C over most of New England...?  Or, is it 6-7 degrees C above normal temps for March 12th?  If it's above the traditional normal temps for March 12th, are those identified anywhere within this graphic or in a key, etc?  

Thanks for any assistance to help me understand better!

No... Your concerns are valid. DIT like to blow everything up LOL. So the 90° thing, no. I don't see it

[CoastalWx]

There is 0 chance of a 90 degree day. 

[dendrite]

The only thing that looks like 90 is his scalp. 

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, Layman said:

 

Could I please ask how the pictured temp anomaly map relates to a potential 90 degree day?  I'm not sure how it's being interpreted to get there.  

If 90 is unrealistic, what do the seasoned folks here take away from this map with respect to the potential for on-the-ground warmth?  i.e.:  what would be a reasonable ground level temp that could be seen if this verifies?

My cursory, layman's attempt to understand it says that at 850 hPa (4,500'ish up - I had to look it up) temps could be 6-7 degrees C over most of New England...?  Or, is it 6-7 degrees C above normal temps for March 12th?  If it's above the traditional normal temps for March 12th, are those identified anywhere within this graphic or in a key, etc?  

Thanks for any assistance to help me understand better!

It doesn't  ...

There's nothing about that 850 mb temperature anomaly that supports a surface temperature of 90 F anywhere in New England. 

Kevin is a clown.  He's been an irresponsible poster for many years.  Despite encouraging him to change into a responsible poster ... he just won't.  Or perhaps can't seem to really amend his ways.   Fun guy to hang out with over quaff and ball bustin' times at pubs here and there.  Would I buy a car from the him?  Fu no.  

You are more correct in your attempt to reason through based upon observing what is really being conveyed in that product - then using some intelligence in trying to work it out.  The product is painting a vast above normal 850 mb level temperature anomaly over the eastern mid latitude continent.  About mid way up the anomaly scale - it can be much more but as for now it is what it is.   But, +6 or +7, in March, when the sun is sufficiently strong enough to warm the surface and start mixing the planetary boundary layer closer to the 850 mb level - whereby those temperatures can be adiabatic to the surface, would support a temperature in the lower or middle 70s under ideal heat conditions.    If there is snow on the ground, that would not be ideal.  It would obviously offset... But if the cutter(s) in the foreground eat the pack back to bear ground, and the 9th doesn't materialize... there is some chance to maximize that outlook.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It doesn't  ...

There's nothing about that 850 mb temperature anomaly that supports a surface temperature of 90 F anywhere in New England. 

Kevin is a clown.  He's been an irresponsible poster for many years.  Despite encouraging him to change into a responsible poster ... he just won't.  Or perhaps can't seem to really amend his ways.   Fun guy to hang out with of quaff and ball bustin' at pubs here and there.  But would a buy a car from the him, NOooo

 

 

His weather posts on social media are always serious and grounded, believe it or not......the only thing he is obsessed with more than a LI Express redux is being perceived well by others outside of this place.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

90 would be wild.. I'd say there is an outside shot at 80+ post March 9th .. IF we get nice clean Eastern Ridge.. EPS has many members going 65-75 days 13-15.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

His weather posts on social media are always serious and grounded, believe it or not......the only thing he is obsessed with more than a LI Express redux is being perceived well by others outside of this place.

I know ... he's always done the clown act in here .. pretty patently obvious.  I like to expose that once in a while because he hates it when I do - hahaha

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know ... he's always done the clown act in here .. pretty patently obvious.  I like to expose that once in a while because he hates it when I do - hahaha

*** All weather updates from Kevin Wood on Facebook 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know ... he's always done the clown act in here .. pretty patently obvious.  I like to expose myself once in a while because he hates it when I do - hahaha

I guess it's Friday???

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

90 would be wild.. I'd say there is an outside shot at 80+ post March 9th .. IF we get nice clean Eastern Ridge.. EPS has temps 65-75 days 13-15.. 

It's marginally less impressive than the GEFs, too.  

The thing is, these Feb/Mar heat bursts have been a phenomenon that are identifiable.  We can find other examples of them occurring going back centuries... but it's the frequency of them that is paramount.  It's spooky to see them improve to roughly 1::3 or 4 years. It is unprecedented against the century based climate density - an aspect that began over the last 20 years or so.  

They are happening regardless of leading longer term seasonal bias indicators.  So it's not very correlative to PDO this or Polar field that, or ENSO this...  Being 15+ diurnal mean should not happen as often as it has, period.

Anyway, they are ultimately pretty harmless.  I mean, look out!   Perfect short sleeve weather with light breezes at masturbatory temperatures isn't exactly inspiring a dystopian mad dash for the hills - but they are kind of like heroin.  The feel really good, but it belies the damage that they represent.  ... risking going down that rabbit hole. 

It's worth it to try and identify how they materialize.   I think the teleconnector outlook is trying to set that table, so it's worth it to test if so.  That's all. 

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It doesn't  ...

There's nothing about that 850 mb temperature anomaly that supports a surface temperature of 90 F anywhere in New England. 

Kevin is a clown.  He's been an irresponsible poster for many years.  Despite encouraging him to change into a responsible poster ... he just won't.  Or perhaps can't seem to really amend his ways.   Fun guy to hang out with over quaff and ball bustin' times at pubs here and there.  Would I buy a car from the him?  Fu no.  

You are more correct in your attempt to reason through based upon observing what is really being conveyed in that product - then using some intelligence in trying to work it out.  The product is painting a vast above normal 850 mb level temperature anomaly over the eastern mid latitude continent.  About mid way up the anomaly scale - it can be much more but as for now it is what it is.   But, +6 or +7, in March, when the sun is sufficiently strong enough to warm the surface and start mixing the planetary boundary layer closer to the 850 mb level - whereby those temperatures can be adiabatic to the surface, would support a temperature in the lower or middle 70s under ideal heat conditions.    If there is snow on the ground, that would not be ideal.  It would obviously offset... But if the cutter(s) in the foreground eat the pack back to bear ground, and the 9th doesn't materialize... there is some chance to maximize that outlook.

 

Perhaps there’s a reason Christine left and why you drive a Prius 

[Prismshine Productions]

EPS has many members going 65-75 days 13-15.. 

Please I beg

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[MJO812]

We track?

[CoastalWx]

Nah you said all alone. 

[Typhoon Tip]

GGEM buckin' for the 9th again...

[Typhoon Tip]

[MJO812]

[CoastalWx]

Man touch and go early on, but what a tempest.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man touch and go early on, but what a tempest.

one step closer to my evil plan to punch 75F air mass into a 15" snow pack   ... muah hahahahaha

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know its a keeper with deep lows dispersed all over southeastern Canada.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GGEM buckin' for the 9th again...

33 degree bomb nice.. 

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

33 degree bomb nice.. 

I’m going to be up north that weekend…so there’s a chance that may happen…

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

33 degree bomb nice.. 

Gefs

[Damage In Tolland]

Would be a nice elevation event as depicted