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March DISCO/OBS: Please End It


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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For the spring enthusiasts:  oh god here it comes...  Pleasy weesie, with sugar on top ... end this

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Do you believe the pattern actually goes full on spring (+EPO/+WPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO) by the end of the 2nd week of March or is this another false alarm? It seems to have good multi ensemble support this time…..

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Do you believe the pattern actually goes full on spring (+EPO/+WPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO) by the end of the 2nd week of March or is this another false alarm? It seems to have good multi ensemble support this time…..

Ensembles only go out 15 days so March 8th. What you talking about end of 2nd week on Ensembles Willis?

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23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Do you believe the pattern actually goes full on spring (+EPO/+WPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO) by the end of the 2nd week of March or is this another false alarm? It seems to have good multi ensemble support this time…..

Good question ... 

... we are past the solar min and moving toward March when things start to happen or hint that times are changing.  Albeit slower vs faster depending on the year in question.

This year one might think it would be slower, based on persistence alone.  There are other reason's though to suspect it may take longer than the 2nd week.  

I think when it trips it's going to be dramatic. This is a candidate year for us to go from cool bias temps and even storm ptype contention and enabled perception with heads buried in proverbial winter snow, ...  straight to 70s the following week.  LOL. When that happens, definitely has to be after the 10th though and it may take closer to the 20th..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The extended ensembles ie GEFS-extended

These extended products, like the Eu W and the GE,  lag behind the standard 360-hr ranged ensemble means by several computational cycles.  In fact, I think we're on the 2 day stint at the moment.  There'll be another run tonight...

I'd be surprised if the next GEF-based extension looks the same.  Either that, or the more current week 2 regular 360-hr would needs to change.

 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Every time I am outside with the dog in the evening I keep telling myself these few things

In a few months it will still be light out

There will be leaves on the trees

It will be hot and humid 

It's almost here

I'm counting down the days until winter

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12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Every time I am outside with the dog in the evening I keep telling myself these few things

In a few months it will still be light out

There will be leaves on the trees

It will be hot and humid 

It's almost here

Bro, you need to move out of here.  If this is so hard for you to tolerate..get out.  I mean you live in SNE…it gets cold here.  

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't mind the cold but months on end of it gets tiresome...thankfully we got some wintry events this month...that always helps. Upper 20's and 30's aren't a big deal but single digits, teens, lower 20's, especially wind...not fun at all. 

Well that’s what happens here..months on end of colder weather. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well that’s what happens here..months on end of colder weather. 

It's more so towards the end of it I am tired of it and ready to move on. It's not like November comes and I get all bent out of shape...I can typically deal with it but about this point I am done. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

It's more so towards the end of it I am tired of it and ready to move on. It's not like November comes and I get all bent out of shape...I can typically deal with it but about this point I am done. 

I can understand that. But I remember you saying this in December this year when it quickly got cold…and has stayed cold.  So it can wear folks down. 

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