March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[Damage In Tolland]

This will leave a mark up north.

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1895175803371167904?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Been saying this for a long time…but was told it’s not true anymore. Now NWS says it is lol. 

It's a very large organization of clock punchers doing tasks they are trained for.

It's not a knock on their intelligence or character, but that 06 and 18z was improved recently - it's not hard to imagine the Met making the statement either doesn't know that, or, questions the "up" in the "upgrade" 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Some updated thoughts on March.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/february-review-march-2025-preview.html

[Typhoon Tip]

Keep in mind ... every system in this time range, since Thanks un-giggedy ..., has both de-amplified and sped up.   In theory this thing on the 9th is setting up in less compression, but ... whenever less compression has been signaled in this same time range, it has amplified and recompressed gradually in ensuing runs  

The two are probably related... as the latter takes place, it starts robbing form the former.   Not sure I see a compelling reason why this would be different this time but we'll see. 

Also, again ... the PNA is marginal on the 9th.  As I was describing before, it is in the process of -d(PNA).  That means that support is trying to diminish.  Some wiggle room tho ... just be cognizant of that.    ( yeah right!)

[CoastalWx]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Been saying this for a long time…but was told it’s not true anymore. Now NWS says it is lol. 

Must be an 80 yr old met saying that because this isn't 2002 anymore. Remote sensing certainly has become better and from what I understand, there is not a statistically significant drop off in accuracy during off hour runs. 

[GCWarrior]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This will leave a mark up north.

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1895175803371167904?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Euro is real bad.  Too amped maybe? 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Must be an 80 yr old met saying that because this isn't 2002 anymore. Remote sensing certainly has become better and from what I understand, there is not a statistically significant drop off in accuracy during off hour runs. 

yeah, that's kind so 1998

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Keep in mind ... every system in this time range, since Thanks un-giggedy ..., has both de-amplified and sped up.   In theory this thing on the 9th is setting up in less compression, but ... whenever less compression has been signaled in this same time range, it has amplified and recompressed gradually in ensuing runs  

The two are probably related... as the latter takes place, it starts robbing form the former.   Not sure I see a compelling reason why this would be different this time but we'll see. 

Also, again ... the PNA is marginal on the 9th.  As I was describing before, it is in the process of -d(PNA).  That means that support is trying to diminish.  Some wiggle room tho ... just be cognizant of that.    ( yeah right!)

The ridge looks to have progressed too far east to me.

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Must be an 80 yr old met saying that because this isn't 2002 anymore. Remote sensing certainly has become better and from what I understand, there is not a statistically significant drop off in accuracy during off hour runs. 

Just saying what they said..guy works for the NWS lol.  But whatever. 

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

Euro is real bad.  Too amped maybe? 

That will cool. 

[Layman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Must be an 80 yr old met saying that because this isn't 2002 anymore. Remote sensing certainly has become better and from what I understand, there is not a statistically significant drop off in accuracy during off hour runs. 

Maybe the paper jammed and they needed to make something up on the spot

[Torch Tiger]

General 3-6" pack remaining here. higher spots in shaded areas, and nearing torched (0-2") full sun.  Not bad after that onslaught

[40/70 Benchmark]

I still have a good 8-10".

[Torch Tiger]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still have a good 8-10".

Yeah shaded areas tare probably a tad higher there than here ,but close.. Saw a grand tour of Methuen pack Monday, was similar to here.

[78Blizzard]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a very large organization of clock punchers doing tasks they are trained for.

It's not a knock on their intelligence or character, but that 06 and 18z was improved recently - it's not hard to imagine the Met making the statement either doesn't know that, or, questions the "up" in the "upgrade" 

Well, looks like some of those clock punchers might have to learn to code:

"Around 600 workers laid off by NOAA, including workers from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center - NBC"  https://x.com/BNONews/status/1895252448551543275

[Go Kart Mozart]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Occlussion.

Lack of isentropic lift?

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Lack of isentropic lift?

But if it’s a bomb…wouldn’t it have that isentropic lift?  Ahh, I guess it doesn’t really matter, it’s just a computer fantasy anyway. 

[Typhoon Tip]

whatever happens on the 9th 

this just 3 days later. spectacular turn around

[H2Otown_WX]

Tippy's heat burst! Could we make a run at 80?

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

whatever happens on the 9th 

this just 3 days later. spectacular turn around

90 in Morch is crazy if it happens 

[Snowcrazed71]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

90 in Morch is crazy if it happens 

It's been a long time, but I remember there being a real hot March where we were in the '80s almost near 90 I think. But I can't remember when that was. Maybe in the last decade? Am I imagining that?

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's been a long time, but I remember there being a real hot March where we were in the '80s almost near 90 I think. But I can't remember when that was. Maybe in the last decade? Am I imagining that?

2012.  The Morch to end all Morches

[Torch Tiger]

[Torch Tiger]

wowzers, I mentioned this a few days ago.  look at the opposing cosmic dildos "" Tip?

[Torch Tiger]

NNE pack strong

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

2012.  The Morch to end all Morches

I might be confusing the years but wasn't that the March that had 8 consecutive days of 80 and above in Chicago? I believe for them that March ended up warmer than the following April. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

51 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Tippy's heat burst! Could we make a run at 80?

I’m not seeing it. 60s to 70, sure 

[WxWatcher007]

Interesting season. I doubt I see more meaningful snow but I had the longest snow cover since 2021. This year was more enjoyable for a time but had less snow than last year. I canceled winter in January but was like 50% too optimistic on snow for the rest of the season. March will probably be a torch for a time here followed by cold and rain into April lol.

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Interesting season. I doubt I see more meaningful snow but I had the longest snow cover since 2021. This year was more enjoyable for a time but had less snow than last year. I canceled winter in January but was like 50% too optimistic on snow for the rest of the season. March will probably be a torch for a time here followed by cold and rain into April lol.

Wvit 30 said this was Ct's 7th winter in a row with below normal snowfall. Are we due or what???

[HoarfrostHubb]

17 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I might be confusing the years but wasn't that the March that had 8 consecutive days of 80 and above in Chicago? I believe for them that March ended up warmer than the following April. 

Based on a quick google search it looks like they had 5 in a row of 80+ and 8 days of 80+ in the month.  Sick stuff