March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

@MJO812 Is central park in the single digits again this season? Last two winters were which was the first time in recorded history…might as well make it 3 in a row.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[HIPPYVALLEY]

25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’m all in for a coastal rainer to wash away the absurd amount of salt that has been dropped for what amounted to a nuisance. Fukin brutal.

What’s a coastal? It sounds vaguely familiar…

[Torch Tiger]

Wowzers at that 1949-1955 stretch for Central Park. SNE complains a lot but at least, for most, the bad winters are like 25-50".  I wonder if we're going to repeat that 50's?

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Wowzers at that 1949-1955 stretch for Central Park. SNE complains a lot but at least, for most, the bad winters are like 25-50".  I wonder if we're going to repeat that 50's?

We just did. I haven't had a near average snowfall season since 2017-2018.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

There was an Alberta Clipper in Feb of 1990 that put down about ten inches of snow in central CT with some redevelopment off the NJ Coast then headed east. That's about as close as we came.

I remember playing in the snow with my friends in that because it was the only big event that season. I had about 10" in Wilmington, too.

[MJO812]

10 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Wowzers at that 1949-1955 stretch for Central Park. SNE complains a lot but at least, for most, the bad winters are like 25-50".  I wonder if we're going to repeat that 50's?

Can we repeat the 2000s?

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get those 70s that the euro has. 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get those 70s that the euro has. 

How many days away are those …14? 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How many days away are those …14? 

Better chance of that vs a 6” snowfall unfortunately.

[MJO812]

11 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

@MJO812 Is central park in the single digits again this season? Last two winters were which was the first time in recorded history…might as well make it 3 in a row.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

I think they are at 11

[Allsnow]

11 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

@MJO812 Is central park in the single digits again this season? Last two winters were which was the first time in recorded history…might as well make it 3 in a row.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

No.

 

12.9

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think they are at 11

I had 10-20" for Central Park.

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had 10-20" for Central Park.

Good call 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Good call 

My snowfall forecast has been good, at least.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lost the coastal on the 8th on ensembles. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lost the coastal on the 8th on ensembles. 

It's a weak signal.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a weak signal.

EPS yesterday was strong . We’ve seen our last snow in SNE. That’s a wrap 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS yesterday was strong . We’ve seen our last snow in SNE. That’s a wrap 

Not sure I would go that far, but I don't have high hopes for something fun.

[Typhoon Tip]

The numbers suggest a warm pattern, but the operational Euro's first 'detection' seems to try and send an oscillatory pattern that swings both cold and warm over 2 day periodicity.  

How extreme notwithstanding, these warm intrusions to our latitude, in that model's run ( 00z) are more like warm sectors that only last for a day because of that oscillating nature.  

One thing that sticks out is that the flow foot remains very fast.   Ex, the Euro sets up a warm bubble/sector out there, with a front way back west of St Louis, and by 36 hours the front is E of Logan/New England.  It's hard to tell if that unusual speed isn't just an artifact of the model at a long lead range where  ... it probably shouldn't be run in the first place.  F'n 300+ hours

Meanwhile, the GFS is yawing violently the wholesale deep circulation mode over the continent, between ridge manifestation vs deep troughs over it's last 3 consecutive cycles -

basically... there's an entirely new paradigm suggested by the numbers, to kick in post the 10th of Mar ... outside the operational versions range in the best of times, but going from a cold inertial hemisphere, to a warm one, is likely to be a problem during that transition for reliable deterministic solutions. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think they are at 11

Congrats. 

[cleetussnow]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good call 

I had 14

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Wowzers at that 1949-1955 stretch for Central Park. SNE complains a lot but at least, for most, the bad winters are like 25-50".  I wonder if we're going to repeat that 50's?

But the following 6 winters made up for it. 
49-50 thru 54-55 averaged 12.6", had one event 6"+ and average for winter's biggest 4.9"
55-56 thru 60-61 averaged 34.5", had 11 events 6"+, 6 events 11.6"+ (and a 9.9) and winter's biggest averaged 11.2".

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

But the following 6 winters made up for it. 
49-50 thru 54-55 averaged 12.6", had one event 6"+ and average for winter's biggest 4.9"
55-56 thru 60-61 averaged 34.5", had 11 events 6"+, 6 events 11.6"+ (and a 9.9) and winter's biggest averaged 11.2".

That's usually how it works out and I think we will begin to see a similar trend in 25-26.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lost the coastal on the 8th on ensembles. 

At 10 days out it’s not surprising…but ya, I don’t think anybody in SNE sees anything of consequence.   We were the odd man out this winter unfortunately.  To the south and to the north did much better than we did. Although it looked and felt like winter this season..so there’s that I guess.  But disappointing in the snowfall department for sure. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

At 10 days out it’s not surprising…but ya, I don’t think anybody in SNE sees anything of consequence.   We were the odd man out this winter unfortunately.  To the south and to the north did much better than we did. Although it looked and felt like winter this season..so there’s that I guess.  But disappointing in the snowfall department for sure. 

This winter legit pisses me off. At least the other 2 were torches. I can't wait to put it behind me. Pretty much there now. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This winter legit pisses me off. At least the other 2 were torches. I can't wait to put it behind me. Pretty much there now. 

We've definitely turned the corner on the season. It's just a matter of coming out of it in increments, frets and starts.  It's gonna be like 1.5 steps forward, followed by .75 steps backward for the next 12 or so days. 

Beyond that ... if the teleconnectors are correct, we have a much more impressive synoptic layout emerging for warmth after the 10th. 

It's not as far as we think.  Tomorrow's the last day of February.  

But for the time being it is like any other extended out look... obviously there are uncertainties in what that will all mean.  These operational versions are just beginning to toy with it out there as the charts emerge over the distant temporal horizons.   So far ... if your a spring/warm enthusiast, that is encouraging for the time being.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This winter legit pisses me off. At least the other 2 were torches. I can't wait to put it behind me. Pretty much there now. 

I'd still have preferred this to another torch not in the sense that it was any more pleasant, but due to what it likely portends moving forward with respec to multidecadal trends.

[ma blizzard]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's usually how it works out and I think we will begin to see a similar trend in 25-26.

we hope our luck is about to turn

on pace for the 3rd consecutive year under ~50% avg snowfall 

22/23 - 28.7”

23/24 - 33.5”

24/25 - 29.4”

[Layman]

13 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Wowzers at that 1949-1955 stretch for Central Park. SNE complains a lot but at least, for most, the bad winters are like 25-50".  I wonder if we're going to repeat that 50's?

1927-1932 was no peach there either.  Lots of ebbing and flowing throughout over that span of recorded winters.  I'll continue to contend that 150ish years of data is insanely small when dealing with something like meteorology.  Glad people had the wherewithal to track that at least.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

At 10 days out it’s not surprising…but ya, I don’t think anybody in SNE sees anything of consequence.   We were the odd man out this winter unfortunately.  To the south and to the north did much better than we did. Although it looked and felt like winter this season..so there’s that I guess.  But disappointing in the snowfall department for sure. 

Signal is still there. Will it produce ? Probably not, I’m sure it’ll fade