March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why can’t we get this? Why is it so difficult to have this happen fairly often ?

https://x.com/anthonyfarnell/status/1906385912302350635?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Because you need an ideal combination of cold  air drain, moisture and lift which usually only occurs over a relatively small area.

edit: a stalled front is also helpful.   It's one of the more elusive weather events.

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, dendrite said:

Fish’s fault

 

This is assuming a lot.  First, splitting hairs between frozen precip (snow vs. sleet) when it is only a trace is inconsequential as to wx/climate.  So BOS has a trace of sleet instead of snow in a month -  makes zero difference in long-term climate normals or in sensible wx.  Second, March 1894, 1901, 1915. 1921, and 1925 all had a trace of frozen precip.  Do we really know if all those months had snow?  Like 2025, it could have been just sleet.

And from a climate standpoint, why is it that a trace of frozen precip occurred 5 times in March 1894-1925, and then did not occur again until 1979 despite overall warming?  And then it took another 30+ years for to have another March trace again?  The point is what has happened in recent years for the dearth of snow in March in BOS is nothing new and not unprecedented when avoiding short periods slicing/dicing things down to do everything possible to find a record and mention the word 'unprecedented'  for content and something to hype.  Just b/c recently snow has dipped big time is meaningless in the context of climate and trends.  Much too short term for determining anything either way.

The "recency bias" logical fallacy is tiresome, yet it is pushed on us repeatedly b/c people fall for it over and over.  We live way too much in the here and now and forget even the recent past, which skews our perception of things big time.

So I say stop making things bigger or more impressive than they really are, esp. when you are talking about long-term wx/climate, records, and the overall pix.  Sure, it 'CoastalWx blows' that snow has been hard to come by in recent years in SNE, but CoastalWx knows the pain all too well from the 1980s how crappy it was then!    Decadal cycles occur!  He needs to remember that 1991-2020 was the *snowiest* 30-yr period on record for BOS, w/ the seasonal avg going *up* 6" from the 1981-2010 normals.  Now that is impressive for a 30-yr normal change for snowfall for a location that is right on the ocean and deals w/ ptype issue a lot!

 

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

This is assuming a lot.  First, splitting hairs between frozen precip (snow vs. sleet) when it is only a trace is inconsequential as to wx/climate.  So BOS has a trace of sleet instead of snow in a month -  makes zero difference in long-term climate normals or in sensible wx.  Second, March 1894, 1901, 1915 1921, and 1925 all had a trace of frozen precip.  Do we really know if all those months had snow?  Like 2025, it could have been just sleet.

And from a climate standpoint, why is it that a trace of frozen precip occurred 5 times in March 1894-1925, and then did not occur again until 1979 despite overall warming?  And then it took another 30+ years for to have another March trace again?  The point is what has happened in recent years for the dearth of snow in March in BOS is nothing new and not unprecedented when avoiding short periods slicing/dicing things down to do everything possible to find a record and mention the word 'unprecedented'  for content and something to hype.  Just b/c recently snow has dipped big time is meaningless in the context of climate and trends.  Much too short term for determining anything either way.

The "recency bias" logical fallacy is tiresome, yet it is pushed on us repeatedly b/c people fall for it over and over.  We live way to much in the here and now and forget even the recent past, which skews our perception of things big time.

So I say stop making things bigger or more impressive than they really are, esp. when you are talking about long-term wx/climate, records, and the overall pix.  Sure, it 'CoastalWx blows' that snow has been hard to come by in recent years in SNE, but CoastalWx knows the pain all too well from the 1980s how crappy it was then!    Decadal cycles occur!  He needs to remember that 1991-2020 was the *snowiest* 30-yr period on record for BOS, w/ the seasonal avg going *up* 6" from the 1981-2010 normals.  Now that is impressive for a 30-yr normal change for snowfall for a location that is right on the ocean and deals w/ ptype issue a lot!

 

Not a single part of that quoted tweet referenced climate or trends.

It just says a “very quiet stretch.”  It has been.  What’s the issue?

[vortex95]

30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not a single part of that quoted tweet referenced climate or trends.

It just says a “very quiet stretch.”  It has been.  What’s the issue?

When you reference all the back to the start of period of record for location, that's a climate statement by default, or will be inferred as such by many.  I pointed out the caveats of the data and details on a meteorological level (how snow and sleet are counted as one - frozen precip).  Not everyone is aware of this.   Details count in science.

Also, stating "for the first time on record" is subject to debate here.  One should not talk in absolutes when there is this kind of uncertainly.  That's a big problem in science-based data these days, the level of uncertainty is often ignored w/ measurements and data.

No one is discounting this is a low snow period for SNE, as I said that in my post, but the historical context perspective was of value.  Facts are meaningless w/o context.
 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

When you reference all the back to the start of period of record for location, that's a climate statement by default, or will be inferred as such by many.  I pointed out the caveats of the data and details on a meteorological level (how snow and sleet are counted as one - frozen precip).  Not everyone is aware of this.   Details count in science.

Also, stating "for the first time on record" is subject to debate here.  One should not talk in absolutes when there is this kind of uncertainly.  That's a big problem in science-based data these days, the level of uncertainty is often ignored w/ measurements and data.

No one is discounting this is a low snow period for SNE, as I said that in my post, but the historical context perspective was of value.  Facts are meaningless w/o context.
 

You’ve managed to say absolutely nothing with a lot of words. 

[dendrite]

31-33° with rain and fog for the last 48hrs. 

What a way to run a weekend. 

[dendrite]

Those were snow obs at BOS anyway…they can augment the PL in if it’s occurring. 

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Those were snow obs at BOS anyway…they can augment the PL in if it’s occurring. 

I saw a mention in a NWS chat group that the BOS -SN reported was most likely PL, but I can't confirm if that was indeed the case.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I saw a mention in a NWS chat group that the BOS -SN reported was most likely PL, but I can't confirm if that was indeed the case.

Yeah who knows…but it would be a little strange to COR an hourly METAR and leave the -SN in the ob if it was really PL. Vis dropped to 1.5sm too and the previous SPECI was +1C. Lots of legit snow obs in NE MA too from the salt nuclei. I think CoastalWx reported some RASN as well. 
 

KBOS 291954Z COR 04015KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC015 02/00 A3015 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 SLP210 RAB04E18SNB44 P0000 T00170000

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah who knows…but it would be a little strange to COR an hourly METAR and leave the -SN in the ob if it was really PL. Vis dropped to 1.5sm too and the previous SPECI was +1C. Lots of legit snow obs in NE MA too from the salt nuclei. I think CoastalWx reported some RASN as well. 
 

KBOS 291954Z COR 04015KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC015 02/00 A3015 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 SLP210 RAB04E18SNB44 P0000 T00170000

It probably was snow given the obs nearby too. I was in Abington and there was some mangled crap falling, but I wouldn’t call it snow. You could see pieces of frozen crap sliding up on the windshield. 

[jbenedet]

Pretty cool to see a battle in very early spring where the warmth ultimately wins. 

we 70+

High temp records look threatened. 

[Ginx snewx]

Phil is in Ontario 

https://x.com/Parkerwilson742/status/1906452039040643364?t=Z1y5jqmOhQORVNcVTfj0WA&s=19

[jbenedet]

Pretty sure March will be around +8 for my hood. 
 

It was a “long winter” for some of those in SNE though. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Pretty sure March will be around +8 for my hood. 
 

It was a “long winter” for some of those in SNE though. 

+1.6 at PWM. It’s not +8 lol. 

[CoastalWx]

+4.3 at MHT but we know they are running warm. 

[jbenedet]

PWM? 
 

GWDLT

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

+4.3 at MHT but we know they are running warm. 

Yea I know everything but the cold obs are running warm. 
 

MHT is “fixed” when it’s colder than progged though. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Yea I know everything but the cold obs are running warm. 
 

MHT is fixed when it’s colder than progged though. 

How many wheelies today?

[jbenedet]

ASH and PSM?

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

How many wheelies today?

Yea will take the bike out this afternoon. Perfect.

[wxeyeNH]

31.7F Moderate freezing rain.  Tree damage is begining to occur.  We have yet to go above 32.0F

[Damage In Tolland]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Phil is in Ontario 

https://x.com/Parkerwilson742/status/1906452039040643364?t=Z1y5jqmOhQORVNcVTfj0WA&s=19

Just to have that happen would be so awesome. That is so exhilarating. An extreme weather fanatics dream. One of them anyway .

[wx2fish]

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I know everything but the cold obs are running warm. 
 

MHT is “fixed” when it’s colder than progged though. 

CON is +4F, so MHT doesn't seem outrageous on the monthly. 

But, I wasn't too far from the airport yesterday (south of it, same elevation) and there was solid glaze on everything, yet the airport obs never went below 33F. So, there is still something going on at times, and seems most apparent with precip near freezing. 

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

CON is +4F, so MHT doesn't seem outrageous on the monthly. 

But, I wasn't too far from the airport yesterday (south of it, same elevation) and there was solid glaze on everything, yet the airport obs never went below 33F. So, there is still something going on at times, and seems most apparent with precip near freezing. 

I was watching that here too. To be honest all this skepticism is really lame when it could be verified with a reliable, calibrated thermometer. This isn’t theoretical stuff. 

[CoastalWx]

MHT also reported ice accretion in the I group. So yeah it’s off.

[jbenedet]

There was a very brief window Saturday night we dipped to 30/28. but other than that —33/31; I sat here too. That brief window was largely dry until precip started again overnight Saturday but we then quickly warmed back up to 33/31.. I think what you had was more of a stale mate between the chemical processes of melting/freezing. Whatever had accreted during the coldest points was maintaining but couldn’t accrete further from there. Melting was cooling then freezing was warming…see saw leading to nothing but the initial glaze from when the cold made its best push.
 

This event really was limited by no persistent CAD drain. It really shows when you have to go to Winne north to find damage.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dave_wx said:

They can be quite impressive to witness. I have seen a few events while living in Southern Ontario and now in New Brunswick, like this from Jan 2023.

I’ve seen ice storms , but nothing like those . Hopefully before my time here on Earth is done, I’ll have the opportunity 

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

+1.6 at PWM. It’s not +8 lol. 

What's 6.5 degrees between weenies

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What's 6.5 degrees between weenies

MHT was +8.3 in 2012. This was nowhere close to 2012. 

[jbenedet]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What's 6.5 degrees between weenies

Laughable having PWM as same climate to Dover NH. 

That's like Gloucester MA vs BED.