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March DISCO/OBS: Please End It


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7 minutes ago, tunafish said:

My BIL is just above 1K on an east facing hill in Deering.  How siggy ice is he in for?

That’s a steady line of precip moving in there, but it should move northward with time. I assume he’s around 29°. Can’t rule out some spotty outages up there. How much glaze does he have so far?

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 Monday and Monday night...

Following the cold and raw weekend, Monday will be a breath of fresh
air as a warm front lifts north of southern New England bringing the
return of temperatures well into the 60s. This is thanks to a
surface low which lifts from the Great Lakes Sunday night into Nova
Scotia by Monday night. This drags the warm front into northern New
England bringing a plume of moisture overhead with dewpoints in the
mid 50s and PWATs approaching 1.5". This, together with ample
forcing from a 45-60 kt LLJ, placement beneath the right entrance
region of a 300 mb jet, and the surface cold front will lead to
widespread rain including some heavy downpours and even some
embedded thunder. There is some marginal instability available with
several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE in the warm sector late Monday/Monday
night. By the time the rain moves out Tuesday morning 0.5-1 inches
of rain are likely to have fallen.
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36 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:
 Monday and Monday night...

Following the cold and raw weekend, Monday will be a breath of fresh
air as a warm front lifts north of southern New England bringing the
return of temperatures well into the 60s. This is thanks to a
surface low which lifts from the Great Lakes Sunday night into Nova
Scotia by Monday night. This drags the warm front into northern New
England bringing a plume of moisture overhead with dewpoints in the
mid 50s and PWATs approaching 1.5". This, together with ample
forcing from a 45-60 kt LLJ, placement beneath the right entrance
region of a 300 mb jet, and the surface cold front will lead to
widespread rain including some heavy downpours and even some
embedded thunder. There is some marginal instability available with
several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE in the warm sector late Monday/Monday
night. By the time the rain moves out Tuesday morning 0.5-1 inches
of rain are likely to have fallen.

Swell, widespread rain. Enjoy.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

That’s a steady line of precip moving in there, but it should move northward with time. I assume he’s around 29°. Can’t rule out some spotty outages up there. How much glaze does he have so far?

Yes he's at 29°, couldn't convince him to go check the glaze, but he said precip had been light.  He's got a big dumb white pine over a 200 year old farmhouse so ice (and wind for that matter) is always a concern.  Parent in-laws in Henniker are at 600 ft, 31° and they've been in that steady band, not sure if heavier rates will mean more accreciation though.

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Today does actually look on track to be okay here. Far from good but much better than yesterday. 
 

Nothing that has fallen overnight has accreted; stuck at 33/31 since about 8 p.m. last night. Doesn’t cut it for ice. 
 

Precip will shut off here in a few hours and winds out of the SE should bring up the dews and temps above 40 by this afternoon.

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