WinterWolf Posted Friday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:44 PM Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Scattered showers and temps probably maxing out around 60 then tanking .. sounds great .. Probably 30s in Middletown for the tournament.. The colder scenarios have won more often this winter season…looks to continue now into Spring… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 01:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:45 PM Man that is a lot of ice for the high ele of srn VT. Again more the east slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 01:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:48 PM Legit winter storm of snow and sleet from Stowe to PWM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Friday at 01:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:49 PM The HRRR has dews in the mid single digits here tonight, by 21z. That’s very suspect… The euro dews at same time frame are in the upper teens. Currently 49/26… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Friday at 01:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:52 PM The HRRR is OTL on the cold shot this evening. 12z NAM has dews in low 20’s at 21z tonight while HRRR is 6-8F… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 01:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:55 PM 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The HRRR is OTL on the cold shot this evening. 12z NAM has dews in low 20’s at 21z tonight while HRRR is 6-8F… HRRR is warmer at that time. It probably mixes out more hence lower dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:58 PM The 4 people in VT that the HRRR targets for ice will lose the grid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Friday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:59 PM NAM is actually a lot warmer on Saturday than previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Friday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:59 PM So I'm assuming no installs this weekend????????? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted Friday at 02:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:01 PM So what I’m reading now says my house at 800’ at the base of the hill and the weekend event I have to attend in BTV is just going to be a mess of winter weather. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Friday at 02:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:07 PM 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR is warmer at that time. It probably mixes out more hence lower dews. It's not even close, region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 02:09 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:09 PM I don't think a Td of 8 or 18 matters much with these setups. The issue is where the ZR/IP/SN zones set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 02:09 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:09 PM I buy the nam sleet well north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Friday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:11 PM 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think a Td of 8 or 18 matters much with these setups. The issue is where the ZR/IP/SN zones set up. Except when we're talking about wetbulbing right? LOL I mean, the whole premise of where the boundary sets up is based on how dense the antecedent airmass is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:13 PM Just now, jbenedet said: Except when we're talking about wetbulbing right? LOL I mean, the hold premise of where the boundary sets up is based on how dense the antecedent airmass is... The areas that should be most concerned about ZR is higher up so it won't matter a ton. They'll be near 28-30ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Friday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:13 PM This setup has clearly evolved from a persistent cold drain scenario to an antecedent cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 02:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:19 PM 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: This setup has clearly evolved from a persistent cold drain scenario to an antecedent cold shot. Looks cold drain to me tonight, and then becomes left over rot late Saturday night into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 02:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:24 PM Also, if the precip lightens up or stops, temps will creep up too. Basically you'll need a steady stream of precip I think to help keep temps cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Friday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:33 PM 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I buy the nam sleet well north. Yup. Razor edge here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:35 PM Just now, powderfreak said: Yup. Razor edge here lol. Jay already claims 14". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted Friday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:46 PM 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also, if the precip lightens up or stops, temps will creep up too. Basically you'll need a steady stream of precip I think to help keep temps cool. You don’t think we see glazing down to the RT 2 area and maybe Ineed and Dave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:48 PM 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: You don’t think we see glazing down to the RT 2 area and maybe Ineed and Dave? Yeah there could be, especially east slopes. They'll likely see some where they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Friday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:50 PM 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile Dryslot gonna be plowing. May have too, Looks like garbage weather into monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Friday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:58 PM 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks cold drain to me tonight, and then becomes left over rot late Saturday night into Sunday. South of the main boundary sure... But looking where it has already pressed south of...The pressure field really isn't conducive. The 1030 mb bermuda high is really inhibiting the ageo flow. I'm not seeing much --if any -- second cold push. Tonight's surface low/disturbance has been grinded up on guidance - so you're losing the delta in the meso pressure gradient to enhance as well... Generally, this looks like low dews to wet bulb and then persistent rot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted Friday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:15 PM 24 minutes ago, dryslot said: May have too, Looks like garbage weather into monday. I have gas left in my tank. I'm not above using the snow blower on 3" of junk in late March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted Friday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:28 PM Guess we won't notice the partial solar eclipse - max coverage (~60% here) is about 6:30 AM and GYX had us possibly at 1"/hr snow then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted Friday at 03:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:31 PM Looking like there is the potential of some glazing into Central Mass, maybe touching the higher elevations near CT line on some modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Friday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:32 PM OH I've completely prepped myself mentally for tomorrow's barrel bottom abysmality - and kudos to the modeling tech ambit, which overall ... hasn't given anyone much reason to delude themselves for days of persistence with this set up. So much so in fact my attitude's turned to embrace it. Great weather nerding opportunity! There's going to be some pretty fantastic meteorological aspects of this weekend's affairs, both in the larger synoptic specter, but also what's likely going to be observed at the discrete scales. I mean, it is not inconceivable that the lowest 100 mb of the atmosphere is if anything cold enough along Rt 2 for icing, while NYC is nearing 80 F. This somewhat reminds me of the extraordinary differentials that occurred in late March, 1998. Unlike this time, that one was a real backdoor front. This, btw, is not that. The front is in fact laying down across pretty much my house, during today. It just doesn't ever go back N as a warm front in the present guidance mean. "back dooring,", in the sense of the verb, is more for whence the front then bends around and starts collapsing SW through CT during tomorrow - where ever that happens, they could doing a 70 to 38 F hour. Or, it's possible that the whole thing is back built more than guidance by 12z. Some runs, like the ICON...are south of NYC - that's not exactly climo unfriendly in late march with a +PP toting polar air off a Canadian snow shield. It's a nerd's extravaganza of testable aspect tomorrow. LOL I figure in the end, who cares. One fuckin' weekend ain't hurtin' much. Let it ice and sleet itself to a bullshit hide the season on March 29th all it wants ... Summer is still coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Friday at 04:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:11 PM moving the pointer around on my laptop on pivotal I found a 5.94 on the spine of the greens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Friday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:15 PM really wish we could get more precip to make its way south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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