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March DISCO/OBS: Please End It


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 ...  It's a sharpy differentiated air mass situation this weekend, particularly Saturday.  Actually some of the bigger lateral gradients, across the boundary, as we are capable of physically generating around here - mainly the warm side is being rather eye-poppish.  

I like this UKMET's  Rembrandting, call it the "Portrait Of Frustration"  ... But it's also among the warm guidance. The GFS and less popular ICON as others were noted are suppressing the boundary farther S than this below. 

image.png.87178632b34f28e3e725fd1366721d01.png

As I said yesterday ... climo, and experience, both, for late March do not support any warmth N of central NJ - particularly when you have +PP loading going on across southern Ontario, spilling around the corner of the Whites/Greens topography.   The models are likely not correct in the implied vector pointing SW due to the fluid mechanics of DVM curl - that is a built in perpetual restoring force in this cold suck circumstance around here. 

The only way to combat that is to change the synoptics.  so we'll see ... good luck

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The NAM actually does have a different synoptic scenario - not a lot but crucially so.  It has a slightly stronger surface wave moving along the boundary along a farther N latitude - actually way up by PF-Dryslot transit.  

The 12z precariously dangling boundary that's sort of right on top of me actually ...ends up over N Nashua NH by 10 and to 2pm.

Two cautions though...    The NAM typically has a N/NW bias at this range with just about everything that it does.   The other is probably an even greater limitation on confidence,   it's the NAM.  

I don't know but expressively it's like 1::100 return rate for the a warm solution to work given a NAM vs the world competition in this regard.  Yeah, it's true that the NAM [ in theory ] should have better surface resolution when it comes to cold undercutting antics...  however, that is moot if the wave does in fact scoot by that far N - I'm just not sure that's not a NAM fantasy.    If that corrects S along with the front, the NAM would then be the more aggressive and the BD slams through Chesapeake Bay

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18 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Back in the day, there was this stuff called Ultimate Orange. I think it rivaled any high quality blow lol. 

Absolutely.  Dan Duchaine FTW formulating the original.  There were some exceptional pre-workouts in the early 2000's that HAD to have been spiked with Adderall.  I remember feeling like a machine on some of them.  

48 here at 10:45am.  Definitely pulling for the NAM to be right this weekend.  Even just a taste of 70's before crashing back to the high 30's will be fine.

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46 minutes ago, Layman said:

Absolutely.  Dan Duchaine FTW formulating the original.  There were some exceptional pre-workouts in the early 2000's that HAD to have been spiked with Adderall.  I remember feeling like a machine on some of them.  

48 here at 10:45am.  Definitely pulling for the NAM to be right this weekend.  Even just a taste of 70's before crashing back to the high 30's will be fine.

I think Ultimate Orange is back on shelves, I used to take those pre workout supplements, spend 20 minutes in the bathroom and then get in a good workout.

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