ineedsnow Posted Tuesday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:06 PM 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Southern or northern? Both 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Tuesday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:34 PM 55 minutes ago, Layman said: My understanding is you have an inclination for summer-time severe weather and I'm assuming the greens -> orange imply that. On these maps though, when the green/yellow/orange show up, what is it signifying? Wind direction/speed? I'm assuming wind direction and speed at various height levels but I don't have an understanding of how that translates weather-wise. I'm also assuming that may have something to do with the phrase "mixing down" that I kind of understand. The map I posted is mixed-layer CAPE and the color shadings correlating to CAPE values (with increasing values left to right) which is a measure of energy (J/KG). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Tuesday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:35 PM Don't see this often 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM 36 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: You tryin to tell us sumthin? Certainly looks like it... but I'm already taken. Can't stand muscles like that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:46 PM 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Your rates just weren’t heavy enough…heavy rates and the whole warm ground nonsense goes out the window. it would have had to be snow+++++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM 6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: it would have had to be snow+++++ Nahh..not really. We saw it in October of 2011. Heavy rates and the warm ground eventually gets overcome by the melting snowflakes and eventually cools and accumulates fine. It doesn’t take long when the rates are there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted Tuesday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:53 PM 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: wherever the cold sets up is going to have a heck of a ice storm I think That would be a 'Dack destroyer. Uff Da Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:55 PM Just now, WinterWolf said: Nahh..not really. We saw it in October of 2011. Heavy rates and the warm ground eventually gets overcome by the melting snowflakes and eventually cools and accumulates fine. It doesn’t long when the rates are there. .....totally different than in late march especially during the daytime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Tuesday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:00 PM Euro trying to go N with the front on Saturday, too - in fact...it looks like it gets up to S VT/NH so much of SNE busts into warm sector, 18z Saturday Actually edit: it's not as far N as it looked from that broader synoptic perspective. It's about the same as where the GFS places it. Significant gradient through the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Tuesday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:01 PM 14 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: .....totally different than in late march especially during the daytime... How did it easily accumulate just north of you yesterday during the daylight hours? The warm ground didn’t care… it snowed moderately to heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Tuesday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:16 PM Looking at the sfc, its difficult to see the warm front making much northward progression within the region Saturday, though the Euro would probably favor this moreso - which is reflected within its output. If anything, there is a better chance for much of the region to warm sector Sunday, unfortunately it would be a dirty warm sector. Regardless, that is going to be one monster gradient Saturday...Great Plains like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Gonna be dung Already by 18z Saturday you have all of the deep cold bottled up towards Hudson bay Canada. This is a battle that the warmth can win for most of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Tuesday at 06:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:26 PM 45 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Certainly looks like it... but I'm already taken. Can't stand muscles like that Yes .. I agree with you as well!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:30 PM 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Already by 18z Saturday you have all of the deep cold bottled up deep into Canada. This is a battle that the warmth can win for most of us... A GEFS ensemble for a back door front? If it's 70+ at the Vatican in Dover, I'll shine up your chrome on the bike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:31 PM 35 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: .....totally different than in late march especially during the daytime... I don’t think late October during the day time is much different to be honest. The point is if you have the rates it doesn’t matter at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Tuesday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:33 PM 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A GEFS ensemble for a back door front? If it's 70+ at the Vatican in Dover, I'll shine up your chrome on the bike. Yea when it's 100+ hrs out. All day. It's not even really a back door, with the surface anoms to the north, basically normal. The question is if we warm sector or not. Not backdoor... No one is selling 70+ in Dover at this point. But I do think 60+ is a better bet than sub 40 and misery mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:33 PM Just now, WinterWolf said: I don’t think late October during the day time is much different to be honest. The point is if you have the rates it doesn’t matter at all. 5 1/2 weeks after the equinox...diminishing sun strength as opposed to gaining sun strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:34 PM 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: How did it easily accumulate just north of you yesterday during the daylight hours? The warm ground didn’t care… it snowed moderately to heavily. Thank you. He’s not getting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Tuesday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:34 PM 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: A GEFS ensemble for a back door front? If it's 70+ at the Vatican in Dover, I'll shine up your chrome on the bike. Is it really a backdoor front? I thought it was more a warm front lifting north and having its progression shunted....didn't seem to be much of a mechanism to continue driving the warm front northward until Sunday when the main SLP lifting across the Great Lakes region deepened a bit and lifted northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Thank you. He’s not getting it. I am getting it....lol there was no accumulation in my area at all. The snow was melting on contact. As I mentioned it would have had to been very heavy snowfall for it to accumulate. Both the air temp and ground temp were above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: 5 1/2 weeks after the equinox...diminishing sun strength as opposed to gaining sun strength It doesn’t matter bro…the rates are what matters. I mean c’mon..4/6/82 it accumulated to 2ft here. It’s not the ground, it’s the rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Thank you. He’s not getting it. It literally just happened yesterday a couple counties north of him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM I think the anomaly maps are kind of "useless" anyways for this. They aren't really providing any information that we don't know. If you warm sector, its going to be anomalously warm and if you fail to warm sector, it will be awful. The key is determining what the likelihood of either scenario occurring is and IMO a 2m temp anomaly map isn't going to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:36 PM 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I am getting it....lol Well the ground doesn’t mean Jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:38 PM Just now, WinterWolf said: Well the ground doesn’t mean Jack. so are you saying warm ground doesn't impact accumulation totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Tuesday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:38 PM 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I don’t think late October during the day time is much different to be honest. The point is if you have the rates it doesn’t matter at all. Interesting just looked it up. Late October is equivalent to mid Feb sun angle. Late March is equivalent to early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Tuesday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:38 PM 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Is it really a backdoor front? I thought it was more a warm front lifting north and having its progression shunted....didn't seem to be much of a mechanism to continue driving the warm front northward until Sunday when the main SLP lifting across the Great Lakes region deepened a bit and lifted northeast. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 06:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:39 PM Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Interesting just looked it up. Late October is equivalent to mid Feb sun angle. Late March is equivalent to early September. Correct and that means the sun is much stronger in late March than it is during late October.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:40 PM 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Is it really a backdoor front? I thought it was more a warm front lifting north and having its progression shunted....didn't seem to be much of a mechanism to continue driving the warm front northward until Sunday when the main SLP lifting across the Great Lakes region deepened a bit and lifted northeast. It's a warm front lifting north, but the flow begins to turn and accelerate a bit Saturday morning and eventually pushes it southwest. So maybe semantics, but I wouldn't say it's just a warm front lifting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 06:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:41 PM 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: so are you saying warm ground doesn't impact accumulation totals? If it's moderate or greater, it will accumulate even in April. We have this argument all the time. If it's like 33F with 1SM vis during the height of the day, you won't get much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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