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March DISCO/OBS: Please End It


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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not really ...  not much for seasonal wx forecasting.  Not my bag ...   Ray or someone may have an idea.  

i guess i could say that La Nina have been known to throw out some ridic heat early.  1976 was a whopper.  The VAX up at UML had ASOS records going back that far, and there was a heat wave in April that year that was like 92/93/96/94 ... during a month that seldom saw a high less than 75 - exceedingly rare for a strapped down Labradorian rape month like April...   

that's an extreme though.  Since 2000, we've been getting weird warm spells early (Feb-Apr) that skew the real picture, because they occurred regardless of what ENSO this or that was taking place.  

i dunno. 

Oh ok, I feel like if you did decide to do LR forecasting you would probably kick ass. Yeah definitely some big early heat in the last 25 years. March 2012 and April 2002 come to mind.

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Hard to believe how fast we flipped the switch . Went from a cold winter to basically a mild to at times warm look over the next 4 weeks . One cool shot in and out quickly over the weekend and that’s about it. Not out of the realm of possibilities that we’ve all seen our last accumulating snowfall in SNE. Kind of has that feel of a very quick and abrupt ending 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hard to believe how fast we flipped the switch . Went from a cold winter to basically a mild to at times warm look over the next 4 weeks . One cool shot in and out quickly over the weekend and that’s about it. Not out of the realm of possibilities that we’ve all seen our last accumulating snowfall in SNE. Kind of has that feel of a very quick and abrupt ending 

The 5th-12th as Will pointed out is our window.  After that it’s mid month anyway, and we are ready to transition.   

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

The 5th-12th as Will pointed out is our window.  After that it’s mid month anyway, and we are ready to transition.   

too bad there isn't a bit more confluence next week on the 18z GFS .. probably NNE favored anyway but wouldn't shock me to see it turn into something trackable 3/5-6

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55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hard to believe how fast we flipped the switch . Went from a cold winter to basically a mild to at times warm look over the next 4 weeks . One cool shot in and out quickly over the weekend and that’s about it. Not out of the realm of possibilities that we’ve all seen our last accumulating snowfall in SNE. Kind of has that feel of a very quick and abrupt ending 

We'll probably get some well timed storm after St Patrick's day that melts in 2 days.

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