jbenedet Posted Monday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:54 PM I don’t see the depression, either in GEFS or teles. Torch incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 01:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:01 PM I don't know about past the second week of April or so, but I don't see any "torches" upcoming, unless one wants to count a brief period ahead of a FROPA. I mean we'll still end up on the + side of departures but I don't see anything for prolonged or sustained torchy weather (which I would define as highly anomalous). With the way the northern hemispheric flow has been we really need to watch FROPAs too because we could end up wedged in and maybe even start introducing cutoff potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 01:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:04 PM Back door season is upon us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 01:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:13 PM 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't know about past the second week of April or so, but I don't see any "torches" upcoming, unless one wants to count a brief period ahead of a FROPA. I mean we'll still end up on the + side of departures but I don't see anything for prolonged or sustained torchy weather (which I would define as highly anomalous). With the way the northern hemispheric flow has been we really need to watch FROPAs too because we could end up wedged in and maybe even start introducing cutoff potential. Heights look to be AN for awhile. Obviously at the surface AN heights don’t mean a whole lot if we are wedged, but that’s a good sign of mild weather even if you get just a little sun and are inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted Monday at 01:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:18 PM 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: This happens quite often now Zero snow in March does not happen that often. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 01:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:21 PM 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Heights look to be AN for awhile. Obviously at the surface AN heights don’t mean a whole lot if we are wedged, but that’s a good sign of mild weather even if you get just a little sun and are inland. These signals though for some impressive ridging into the Inter-mountain West/Great Plains region makes me a bit nervous. Wouldn't take too much to get omega blockish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 01:40 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:40 PM Sounds like sleet here in Chelsea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 01:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:40 PM I don’t know. If this was winter and we were expecting snow.. I’d be very worried about radar right now. With ending time 4-7 Pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 01:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:42 PM 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: These signals though for some impressive ridging into the Inter-mountain West/Great Plains region makes me a bit nervous. Wouldn't take too much to get omega blockish. Just looking at the EPS, ridge retros a tad west into the Plains which could allow for warm front to stall nearby or just west, but still looks AN. Usually when that happens you get a pulse or two of good WAA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Monday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:44 PM 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t know. If this was winter and we were expecting snow.. I’d be very worried about radar right now. With ending time 4-7 Pm You'll see some wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 01:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:47 PM 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just looking at the EPS, ridge retros a tad west into the Plains which could allow for warm front to stall nearby or just west, but still looks AN. Usually when that happens you get a pulse or two of good WAA. I wouldn't be shocked if we are able to sneak in some super warm days for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted Monday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:51 PM Yesterday the GYX 90%-most likely-10% for Farmington was 0-1-4. This morning it's 2-4-12. Slight change. Actual forecast is 3-6, so maybe we can finally get a 1"+ event this month. Not quite what was happening last year on this date, but decent. Nice cold ground (low was 14°) so accum shouldn't be an issue (unless it's only S-- and doesn't start until afternoon). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Monday at 01:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:52 PM 43 minutes ago, dryslot said: Back door season is upon us. It is, but the pattern for this weekend couldn't be anything less favorable for a back door. There isn't meridional flow out of canada - it's very progressive West to East. I'm feeling good in seacoast NH - but as always someone will get screwed, probably Winne-->north where it gets questionable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Monday at 01:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:54 PM GEFS vs EPS for this weekend. GEFS showing +NAO and which will be sending canadian cold east to labrador/Newfoundland. It's not fully there on guidance yet, but it's getting there. EPS showing -NAO and CAD into new england. No door, vs back door, respectively. The teles support the GEFS look not the EPS... I'm with the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Monday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:56 PM Ping ping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 02:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:23 PM 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Back door season is upon us. Oh, your fucked up there - high confidence bum tenderizer pattern all the way down to S NJ for that matter. So Maine? - probably could go ahead and change its name to "Shawshank" - ha...actually, I think that film's prison setting was supposed to be in Maine. weird. Anyway, the N stream is active... even the Euro solution. I mean it's cold as a witch's tit right up to the door stop, and then it's 80 in PA being a circumstance resulting from an N/stream that is persisting beyond seasonality across S Canada. The 00z GGEM looks likes it accepted a pay-out by the GFS coup de etat attempt over spring even happening on Earth ( eh hm). Both have some kinda blue bomb implicated some point between D7 and 11 out there. Sell ... Kidding aside, there's a lot of large scaled indicator conflicts right now. The operational GFS derived teleconnnector for the EPO is just about exactly opposite it's own ensemble derived value. It's like +2 SD in the GEFs, vs -2 SD int he GFS. So there's a major internal breakdown there. I'm not sure why-for, but that kind of diametrical anomaly distribution creates a ginormous implication variance for for cold loading across the Canadian shield. The EPS on the other hand, does not have this conflict between itself, and the operational version. Both are +2-ish SD. So less in the wave of breakdown. +2 is warming signal mind you, particularly in the presence of an ongoing -PNA the PNA is in fact negative in the EPS and GEFS, and the operational GFS is neutral-neggie. So this is an odd morass where the operational Euro is a warm outlier relative to the operational GGEM and GFS, but neither the of the latter, having 00z cinemas of endless trough carving and abeyance of any seasonal migration/climate awareness over eastern mid latitude continent have much larger numerical mass field support. I guess I lean warmer given to the weight of the ensemble mean, but since there is an active N/stream and cold presentation in the Euro, this is precarious at best. The Euro could in principle end up more right about a warmer ridge and we get completely tubed up the rectum and it's not even on the weather charts its so discrete. God I love spring in this dumpster land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 02:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:24 PM 39 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: You'll see some wednesday What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:32 PM 38 minutes ago, jbenedet said: GEFS vs EPS for this weekend. GEFS showing +NAO and which will be sending canadian cold east to labrador/Newfoundland. It's not fully there on guidance yet, but it's getting there. EPS showing -NAO and CAD into new england. No door, vs back door, respectively. The teles support the GEFS look not the EPS... I'm with the GEFS. The EPS is warm ... and it doesn't appear ( in principle ) to be largely enough differentiated from the 00z GEFs derivative re the combination of the EPO/PNA, either. Both were similarly warm. Here's the EPS' PNA top, EPO bottom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted Monday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:37 PM Heavy sleet ASH 35F did see a few flakes mixing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:37 PM Had an inch of snow with a little sleet mixed in earlier, rain already made rather quick work of it but officially hit seasonalSent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:38 PM 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What? Beer and lots of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:41 PM Beer and lots of it.Or Doweast CiderSent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:42 PM This weekend looks meh to me. We door. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:42 PM Should be pretty snow squally up north tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted Monday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:46 PM 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This weekend looks meh to me. We door. Will it make it as far west as Springfield ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:47 PM I would say the extended HRRR is out to lunch with some showers and flakes mixing in for the higher terrain tomorrow night but the Euro has it too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted Monday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:57 PM Flakes arrived 10:25, light-moderate. Temp still in the 20s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Monday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:30 PM 31.2° -SN Whitening up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted Monday at 03:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:33 PM 28.6°, SN. Pretty good growth actually. HRRR is still insisting on a good little thump for Mt. Sunapee. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted Monday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:37 PM Actually dumping right now. Very good growth. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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