March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[weatherwiz]

“Aardvark reimagines current weather prediction methods, offering the potential to make weather forecasts faster, cheaper, more flexible and more accurate than ever before,”

        - This mindset is one of the downfalls of our society. All you have to do is tell someone you can do something for them faster and cheaper and its like dangling a carrot in front of the horse. This crap is food for the gullible.  

 

”Tests of the Aardvark model revealed that it is able to outperform the United States national GFS forecasting system using just 10 per cent of the input data, leading researchers to say it could offer a “revolution in forecasting”.

   so one of the most important aspects of forecasting, especially for short-term, which is input data...you're just going to totally reject? So what's the method, Miss Cleo's crystal ball? 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Up and in Hubb with plowable blue snow 

Eh, low levels look like dung. 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ineedsnow gone.. disappeared like a pound of stuffing off Scooter’s Tgiving plate . 

meh I wasn't expecting much to be honest.. when the 3k NAM is the only model showing it you know its crap unless its mid level warmth.. Sometimes I just post to get some weenies going.. We could get a couple  up here Monday morning though.. I still think we pull off a couple snow events atleast in my location..  

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

And that’s quick.

Even better when it's weenie stuffing. Wait! Make that sausage

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hell, actually I think we see some showers/graupel move across the region tomorrow. 

Ya..that already sounds like a crap day..destructive sunshine type of day. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya..that already sounds like a crap day..destructive sunshine type of day. 

yup...that's what I think anyways. And we may not even get that much...eastern areas maybe a tiny bit more. But that is a good shortwave coming through with sfc cold front, cold mid-level temps, steep lapse rates, and CAA.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

“Aardvark reimagines current weather prediction methods, offering the potential to make weather forecasts faster, cheaper, more flexible and more accurate than ever before,”

        - This mindset is one of the downfalls of our society. All you have to do is tell someone you can do something for them faster and cheaper and its like dangling a carrot in front of the horse. This crap is food for the gullible.  

 

”Tests of the Aardvark model revealed that it is able to outperform the United States national GFS forecasting system using just 10 per cent of the input data, leading researchers to say it could offer a “revolution in forecasting”.

   so one of the most important aspects of forecasting, especially for short-term, which is input data...you're just going to totally reject? So what's the method, Miss Cleo's crystal ball? 

Be careful this was developed by some of the premier minds in physics and Met Before you jump off a cliff read the paper. Amazing 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Strongest sustained winds I’ve seen in quite some time here.  Never seen my neighbors trampoline move before now it’s over the fence and in my yard 

[dendrite]

35.5°

Flaking

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Be careful this was developed by some of the premier minds in physics and Met Before you jump off a cliff read the paper. Amazing 

I'm always happy to read the papers on this stuff but when I do I always find a ton of red flags. First off, because everyone is so interested in AI and there is alot of money to be had, it is extremely easy to suck people in and its even easier to align a presentation or paper in a way that is easily going to do that. Alot of these papers will tell you about the successes but then beat around the bush when it comes to the failures. "Oh such and such did extremely well with this past storm and nailed it 6 days out and blah blah blah"...then its painted in this glorious light and all of a sudden people are hooked. 

There are so many red flags out there on this stuff but because its all lead with faster, cheaper, better...those are words which are meant to draw in an audience and from there you can easy manipulate and then just provide them with whatever they want to hear. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Actually now that the good free stuff came out, 6z Euro looked ok for pasty several inches maybe for Hubby and Ineedweenies.

[weatherwiz]

Pretty soon there will be 500 different AI models out there and all it is going to do is cause even more confusion and a wide range of forecasts. You'll have the companies or whoever producing these models robbing people and industries blind because they will claim their model is "the best" and they can do it cheaper and faster. "Ohhhh my model hit a thunderstorm that hit West Palm Beach and it showed potential for tree damage on whatever Boulevard and that's exactly what happened".  

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

What you don't see reported en mass are the areas that welcome some warming. Future population redistribution?...

I don't wish to get into a protracted debate but ..,  relocation would only be a temporary safety measure, not a tactic that will deliver a long term solution.  Plus it's not really an option - realistically - when 90 or whatever iniquitous number it is, percent of the global population lives close to or in the poverty level, within drowning distance of sea-level rise and/or death from failure to maintain arable land/agraculture.  

Also, we are still inside the planetary atmosphere. No matter where we go, all systems are slaved existentially, and dependent upon it to some degree or the other - yes ...some areas more so than other are directly impacted by a changing climate, one that is outpacing regional adaptation rates ( ...uh, they can't keep up with the speed of the change ).  But other areas, indirectly so, yeah they may buy some time.  What's humanity going to do not if, but when the denial-enabling industrial bubble closes around 8 and a half billion, eating farting over extended species? - move them all to these tiny enclaves and sing Kumbaya?

good luck with that.    ...I'm not directing this sermon at you I'm just pissed off today.   LOL

[40/70 Benchmark]

We really need Christine back.

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Strongest sustained winds I’ve seen in quite some time here.  Never seen my neighbors trampoline move before now it’s over the fence and in my yard 

Jump around on it !

[Layman]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm always happy to read the papers on this stuff but when I do I always find a ton of red flags. First off, because everyone is so interested in AI and there is alot of money to be had, it is extremely easy to suck people in and its even easier to align a presentation or paper in a way that is easily going to do that. Alot of these papers will tell you about the successes but then beat around the bush when it comes to the failures. "Oh such and such did extremely well with this past storm and nailed it 6 days out and blah blah blah"...then its painted in this glorious light and all of a sudden people are hooked. 

There are so many red flags out there on this stuff but because its all lead with faster, cheaper, better...those are words which are meant to draw in an audience and from there you can easy manipulate and then just provide them with whatever they want to hear. 

 

This is pervasive throughout society no matter the topic.  We all have our individual biases where we tend to agree or disagree with whichever topic du jour is being discussed and base our opinions on the data we believe is factual and relevant.  The depth of conviction of those individual beliefs and the louder one proclaims their allegiance to them often helps manipulate the audience's commitment to those ideas as you have mentioned.  Interesting stuff.  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Layman said:

This is pervasive throughout society no matter the topic.  We all have our individual biases where we tend to agree or disagree with whichever topic du jour is being discussed and base our opinions on the data we believe is factual and relevant.  The depth of conviction of those individual beliefs and the louder one proclaims their allegiance to them often helps manipulate the audience's commitment to those ideas as you have mentioned.  Interesting stuff.  

I think alot of it is touching a dangerous line. Is there use and benefit with AI, absolutely, 100%. But at the same time I think there is a dangerous line with it. 

[NW_of_GYX]

Just flipped to snow, 37, winds starting to pick up as the CF approaches

[Layman]

44 minutes ago, dendrite said:

35.5°

Flaking

We drove up past your area yesterday heading to Bretton Woods.  Rain/mist the entire way until we got about 2 miles onto Route 3 above Cannon.  It was beautiful up there!  Mid-50's, clear blue skies.  Night and day difference.  That recent warmth and rain sure decimated the snow depths.  Let's get this useless cold out of here and head onto 70+ degree temps!  

41 here with 0.45" or rain overnight.

[UnitedWx]

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't wish to get into a protracted debate but ..,  relocation would only be a temporary safety measure, not a tactic that will deliver a long term solution.  Plus it's not really an option - realistically - when 90 or whatever iniquitous number it is, percent of the global population lives close to or in the poverty level, within drowning distance of sea-level rise and/or death from failure to maintain arable land/agraculture.  

Also, we are still inside the planetary atmosphere. No matter where we go, all systems are slaved existentially, and dependent upon it to some degree or the other - yes ...some areas more so than other are directly impacted by a changing climate, one that is outpacing regional adaptation rates ( ...uh, they can't keep up with the speed of the change ).  But other areas, indirectly so, yeah they may buy some time.  What's humanity going to do not if, but when the denial-enabling industrial bubble closes around 8 and a half billion, eating farting over extended species? - move them all to these tiny enclaves and sing Kumbaya?

good luck with that.    ...I'm not directing this sermon at you I'm just pissed off today.   LOL

Oh no offense taken, don't worry. It's just an observation I've made the last couple of years but I get your point. And even though we don't agree on everything, you're one of my favorite posters in this forum and have been for years

[tamarack]

15 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Just flipped to snow, 37, winds starting to pick up as the CF approaches

Just mid-30s catpaws here, especially going over the hill to the west.  In other news, the ice jam at Farmington Falls has cleared.

[alex]

Birch bender in progress. 30F

 

 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, alex said:

Birch bender in progress. 30F

 

 

Yeah you’re probably doing well on the west slope with this.

We are tapering off after 2” or so at 1500ft and 3.5” at 3000ft.

Heated plaza still on for Will/ORH.

[weatherwiz]

Sun breaking out here and wind is beginning to crank 

[Lava Rock]

Pounding sn pretty good at home. 33.1F

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Just flipped to snow, 37, winds starting to pick up as the CF approaches

Yes, Snowing at good clip here as well, Kind of been of the weather grid here but looks like we have more coming too on Monday.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Snowing at good clip here as well, Kind of been of the weather grid here but looks like we have more coming too on Monday.

You gettin’ 2”-4” on Monday 

[dryslot]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You gettin’ 2”-4” on Monday 

Seems that way or a bit more, I hadn't looked at a model in 3 weeks once i was done riding, But i just looked at the last few runs.

[dryslot]

Starting to accumulate a bit.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Starting to accumulate a bit.

I love how the slide leads right into a puddle of water!