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March DISCO/OBS: Please End It


40/70 Benchmark
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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This storm is a pretty good case study though, to be honest. The surface reflection stayed true and kept almost all on the cold side…yet…warmer and warmer with time.

I didn't follow it for one second....I'm at the point of the season where I remain checked out if I am reasonably confident that an event will not end up offering singificant wintry potnetial. I couldn't care less whether its 41 degrees F and raining or 38.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't follow it for one second....I'm at the point of the season where I remain checked out if I am reasonably confident that an event will not end up offering singificant wintry potnetial. I couldn't care less whether its 41 degrees F and raining or 38.

It wasn’t even favorable. Had no cold. Never looked promising. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It wasn’t even favorable. Had no cold. Never looked promising. 


Airmasses skunked. 

The surface was completely unworkable. You needed it to tear open the mid levels; but nothing showed that. Something really dynamic. 970’s in the western GOM and then maybe you get some of what the GFS was showing at ~120hrs.

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30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Local planner has 56 with clouds tomorrow …I sure hope that isn’t right for tomorrow. 

Yeah tomorrow morning may be sunny or have a good deal of Sun, but I think we cloud up quick. That's a pretty potent shortwave moving through during the day with very cold mid-level temperatures. 50's for highs though which isn't terrible...but would feel better with Sun.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Poo Poo airmass again.

Not only that but is there really any good opportunity for that shortwave to dig as much as GFS/Euro have hinted it? I mean we've seen that same crap all winter long. Something going on where in this range they get dig happy with that northern stream. The way I see it now its going to end up just a weak wave with some showers and maybe snow showers for higher elevations. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah tomorrow morning may be sunny or have a good deal of Sun, but I think we cloud up quick. That's a pretty potent shortwave moving through during the day with very cold mid-level temperatures. 50's for highs though which isn't terrible...but would feel better with Sun.

Hell, actually I think we see some showers/graupel move across the region tomorrow. 

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Saw an article about a new AI weather model:

“Aardvark reimagines current weather prediction methods, offering the potential to make weather forecasts faster, cheaper, more flexible and more accurate than ever before,”

”Tests of the Aardvark model revealed that it is able to outperform the United States national GFS forecasting system using just 10 per cent of the input data, leading researchers to say it could offer a “revolution in forecasting”.

If you just want better and cheaper than the GFS, you can use a dart board.  Darts are pretty fast.  

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2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Saw an article about a new AI weather model:

“Aardvark reimagines current weather prediction methods, offering the potential to make weather forecasts faster, cheaper, more flexible and more accurate than ever before,”

”Tests of the Aardvark model revealed that it is able to outperform the United States national GFS forecasting system using just 10 per cent of the input data, leading researchers to say it could offer a “revolution in forecasting”.

If you just want better and cheaper than the GFS, you can use a dart board.  Darts are pretty fast.  

This stuff is getting so out of hand :lol: 

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