WinterWolf Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 59 minutes ago, MJO812 said: For your area and north it's not over. Alot of those silly maps have a lot of snow south of your area even. I mean we’ll see if there’s any credence to any of this.. but just saying verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 8 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said: GFS looking for @40/70 Benchmark to give More garbage another sub: >2 feet in NYC, <2" for the Maine foothills - that worked for Feb 2006. Chances for a repeat in late March 2025: 0.001%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think for most..any snow shots come later next week.. no? I'm still a little interested for this Friday here. Just depends on long the precip last and if there's enough cold around.. GFS is close to being fun and the NAM increased.. srefs probs for one inch also jumped at 9z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Alot of those silly maps have a lot of snow south of your area even. I mean we’ll see if there’s any credence to any of this.. but just saying verbatim. The snow maps look cute and all but when you actually start looking at everything...they're even more of a giant LOLz than they usually are. They are garbage in winter but they are even more garbage this time of year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I'm still a little interested for this Friday here. Just depends on fast the precip last and if there's enough cold around.. GFS is close to being fun and the NAM increased.. srefs probs for one inch also jumped at 9z Seems like there has been a trend towards CAA occurring more slowly. Adirondacks still look a tad interesting but the CAA push seems to be slowing, even within the OV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Seems like there has been a trend towards CAA occurring more slowly. Adirondacks still look a tad interesting but the CAA push seems to be slowing, even within the OV Looked to me like the cold is just less in every direction. It was over-modeled ( perhaps ...) and is just modulating/correcting toward less extreme. Everything else about the wave on the front thing is essentially the same though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 As a cashier who has been having customers saying how much they been loving the warm weather... I had to remind them we got 10" last April, kinda funny how I only been up here a year yet I am already conditioned to how a New England Spring goes Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looked to me like the cold is just less in every direction. It was over-modeled ( perhaps ...) and is just modulating/correcting toward less extreme. Everything else about the wave on the front thing is essentially the same though. Yes, agreed. This is a better take and analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Seems like there has been a trend towards CAA occurring more slowly. Adirondacks still look a tad interesting but the CAA push seems to be slowing, even within the OV Meh we will see what 12z does but 6z definitely trended a bit better I think.. just hoping for 1 to 3 of paste here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I'm still a little interested for this Friday here. Just depends on long the precip last and if there's enough cold around.. GFS is close to being fun and the NAM increased.. srefs probs for one inch also jumped at 9z No way! heh pretty sure you'd say this if it were July 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Meh we will see what 12z does but 6z definitely trended a bit better I think.. just hoping for 1 to 3 of paste here I think we'll see many probably end as some snow but I don't know if anyone will really accumulate. One thing to watch too is for the wave to become a bit less impressive. one of the drivers in a stronger wave was stronger temperature gradient but if the gradient is weakening this could have a negative impact on wave development. There are other factors at play and involved for wave development though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think we'll see many probably end as some snow but I don't know if anyone will really accumulate. One thing to watch too is for the wave to become a bit less impressive. one of the drivers in a stronger wave was stronger temperature gradient but if the gradient is weakening this could have a negative impact on wave development. There are other factors at play and involved for wave development though probably ends as raging smells-like-snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: probably ends as raging smells-like-snow Also looks like we may start drying out aloft pretty quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Also looks like we may start drying out aloft pretty quickly Lol 12z NAM is meh for all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Lol 12z NAM is meh for all Friday is nothing for anyone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Friday is nothing for anyone. I'm not writing it off for here yet. It won't be anything big but could whiten things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Canada geese in the field and on the "goose puddle" (refilled by yesterday's ice jam on the Sandy) along Rt 2 here. They must've decided that spring has sprung, flying a couple hundred miles of night-time travel, gambling that there will be food available where they land. Deep blue sky here after the low 20s morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 3 minutes ago, tamarack said: Canada geese in the field and on the "goose puddle" (refilled by yesterday's ice jam on the Sandy) along Rt 2 here. They must've decided that spring has sprung, flying a couple hundred miles of night-time travel, gambling that there will be food available where they land. Deep blue sky here after the low 20s morning. For the past couple weeks there has been a huge flock of geese in a big field in Stratham off Rt 108. Been hearing them daily overhead as they're maneuvering around locally. The liquor store parking lot/sidewalk at the Portsmouth Traffic Circle was loaded with goose crap last weekend but no geese in sight. Didn't see many/any down there over the winter this year where the past couple years they seemed to bed down for the entirety of winter. Not sure if it speaks to anything or not, but I tend to believe along the lines you mentioned where they figured it was time to see if it's safe and ready to come back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 The GEFS guidance teleconnections continues to reflect +NAO/+AO towards ends of the month. Developing -PNA as well... MJO to phase 7. End of the month to first week in april would end up very warm should this verify.. The ensemble guidance isn't on board yet but something will have to start caving very soon... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The GEFS guidance teleconnections continues to reflect +NAO/+AO towards ends of the month. Developing -PNA as well... MJO to phase 7. End of the month to first week in april would end up very warm should this verify.. The ensemble guidance isn't on board yet but something will have to start caving very soon... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 Looks as though AO neutralizes and NAO slips negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks as though AO neutralizes and NAO slips negative. Pope hoping for pope a wheelie weather…he might be waiting a bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 I suppose we should watch this period for one last porking... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 29 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The GEFS guidance teleconnections continues to reflect +NAO/+AO towards ends of the month. Developing -PNA as well... MJO to phase 7. End of the month to first week in april would end up very warm should this verify.. The ensemble guidance isn't on board yet but something will have to start caving very soon... agreed in principle ... No secret to those that follow my content over the years ...big time proponent of the mathematically derived/statistical correlation fields. Why? because of your ending sentiment there for one... (bold), and when the cave happens, it's never going to be the other direction. It's either the whole way in favor, or...meets half way. But the "correction vectors" point to expressions that will emerge - just a matter of how much. That all said, there is a -EPO/+PNA in the foreground. We're going to need to tip toe through that period as warmth/spring enthusiasts... or, perhaps event suffer an event. That's just the reality in the meantime. But beyond that... unless the tele's change, the correlation goes warm shortly after the 28th or 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks as though AO neutralizes and NAO slips negative. Depends on the source re the bold? CPC here is different than those 'bell graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Very sad times Today is the last day of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks as though AO neutralizes and NAO slips negative. Yes. That window 26-29 aligns with the MJO progression quickly through 6. That dip is likely real but very short lived. I was referencing to the period right after which looks like ++AN. 30th through first week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Depends on the source re the bold? CPC here is different than those 'bell graphics Its more the first few days of April....as that graphic focuses more on latter March. The H5 plot seems to imply as much, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Yes. That window 26-29 aligns with the MJO progression quickly through 6. That dip is likely real but very short lived. I was referencing to the period right after which looks like ++AN. I'm just killing some time before lunch, anyway....I don't expect anything to come of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its more the first few days of April....as that graphic focuses more on latter March. The H5 seems to imply as much, as well. Huh. That doesn't look like a negative NAO to me... neutral perhaps with that flow being slightly top heavy near the Brits but that's also almost too far east of the NAO domain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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