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March DISCO/OBS: Please End It


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29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Cost is somewhat prohibitive however.    I know some folks (more casual skiers who tend to rent and not buy season passes) who have said they either gave it up or just go once or twice now.  Also agree on the youth sports aspect-both of my sons play and by mid March practices are in full swing.    Alot of that goes back to the earlier DST switch-can have practices later in the day etc.

Cousin and her two kids and husband went a few weeks ago somewhere in VT, can’t remember the mountain, but it was $700 all in for tickets and rentals for 1 day for 4 people (only the 2 kids rented skis).

 

It has absolutely become cost prohibitive and I’d guess we are inching towards a tipping point.

 

I’m skeptical of the turnout numbers allegedly being good. Do they count turnout like they count inches of snow at Jay?

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8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Cousin and her two kids and husband went a few weeks ago somewhere in VT, can’t remember the mountain, but it was $700 all in for tickets and rentals for 1 day for 4 people (only the 2 kids rented skis).

 

It has absolutely become cost prohibitive and I’d guess we are inching towards a tipping point.

 

I’m skeptical of the turnout numbers allegedly being good. Do they count turnout like they count inches of snow at Jay?

I go out west with my dad he still skis at 75-but to take my family out there...you'd be looking at $7500 even if you went with basic housing-not sure how most afford that.    No one pays it anymore but the day pass at Breck is $240 lol.   Makes everyone buy the Epic pass...

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21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Cousin and her two kids and husband went a few weeks ago somewhere in VT, can’t remember the mountain, but it was $700 all in for tickets and rentals for 1 day for 4 people (only the 2 kids rented skis).

 

It has absolutely become cost prohibitive and I’d guess we are inching towards a tipping point.

 

I’m skeptical of the turnout numbers allegedly being good. Do they count turnout like they count inches of snow at Jay?

I agree....same thing happens in pro sports when teams pad their attendance figures...

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah it looks Assey .. garbage. Pattern doesn’t look cold next few weeks . Looks normal to AN. Where are they getting cold pattern from? 

Looks like we definitely are going to have some ass stretches. Not a fan. 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like it’ll end up slightly AN . We are done with cold, snow, freezes etc 

Hmmm... Not sure you are correct ( I mean, I'm not calling for a snowy cold pattern per se )... But the Outlook towards the last part of this month looks colder. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

No way 

Screenshot_20250317_094703_Drive.jpg

Screenshot_20250317_094717_Drive.jpg

Depressing stats for the east. All of the big gains out west. Basically flat for 40 years in the east. 1983, there was 100 million less people in the US...let that sink in..

 

There's some bias for booming industry here. "it's packed" Yea it is, but because there's also a lot less competition (supply).

 

 

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Depressing stats for the east. All of the big gains out west. Basically flat for 40 years in the east.

 

There's some bias for booming industry here. "it's packed" Yea it is, but because there's also a lot less competition (supply).

 

 

I wonder why the west is gaining-what's different out there other than better conditions/more terrain but that's always been the case

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11 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Hmmm... Not sure you are correct ( I mean, I'm not calling for a snowy cold pattern per se )... But the Outlook towards the last part of this month looks colder. 

the problem is that models have been too cold all winter in the LR....ends up being muted/modified as we get closer in time.

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The teleconnections aren't flagging cold. +AO, and even the NAO tendency is to a positive phase phase state over next 7 days.

 

GEFS also looks warm....

 

For 95% of us, start planning for plants and seeding; not your next prospect of accumulating snow.

 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

The teleconnections aren't flagging cold. +AO, and even the NAO tendency is to a positive phase phase state over next 7 days.

 

GEFS also looks warm....

 

For 95% of us, start planning for plants, not your next prospect of accumulating snow.

 

-EPO/+PNA interval between the 22nd and 28th most certainly does ...

Not a matter of disagreement - that is clad

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

-EPO/+PNA interval between the 22nd and 28th most certainly does ...

Not a matter of disagreement - that is clad

Kind of an irony that a "bad pacific pattern" can actually yield N to BN temperatures in our spring, with the pacific reaching its minimum SST's at this time, and our daily temp averages exceeding this by April. This is all thanks to the ISR which leads the ocean by a few months. In Dec, Jan, Feb a bad pacific is a torch, but that affect disappears by late march.

I'm more focused on the NAO/AO phases for that reason...

 

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Any cold or below-average periods will likely be brief and the result of strong fronts moving through as opposed to any significant changes in the pattern. There will be some crap days for sure but the overall but as long as we continue this theme of rapidly deepening lows which eject into the central Plains and lift northeast, the warmth will outweigh the cold.

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14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The teleconnections aren't flagging cold. +AO, and even the NAO tendency is to a positive phase phase state over next 7 days.

 

GEFS also looks warm....

 

For 95% of us, start planning for plants and seeding; not your next prospect of accumulating snow.

 

It flips next week, but I agree it doesn't look very cold...seasonably cold.

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Kind of an irony that a "bad pacific pattern" can actually yield N to BN temperatures in our spring, with the pacific reaching its minimum SST's at this time, and our daily temp averages exceeding this by April. This is all thanks to the ISR which leads the ocean by a few months. In Dec, Jan, Feb a bad pacific is a torch, but that affect disappears by late march.

I'm more focused on the NAO/AO phases for that reason...

 

Last week of the month...

1742169600-c6cJCsAbYdwgrb2.png1742169600-MPq1mcVVDaggrb2.png

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Any cold or below-average periods will likely be brief and the result of strong fronts moving through as opposed to any significant changes in the pattern. There will be some crap days for sure but the overall but as long as we continue this theme of rapidly deepening lows which eject into the central Plains and lift northeast, the warmth will outweigh the cold.

yeah it's just cold air behind cutters for a day or so and then back to AN

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10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Mud season has claimed me as a victim. The thawing of the ground, the heavy rain, and a super heavy oil delivery truck lead to a driveway loss at my house this morning 

IMG_7142.jpeg

:damage:

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11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Holy error bars.... 

Really lose skill after 7 days on this. 

Wouldn't be using this as a predictor for the end of the month. Not enough skill.

Best to just monitor...

Obviously there is higher error at longer leads, but its forecast to pretty negative and it is likely it will at least be somewhat negative given the major disruption to the PV that is ensuing. Again, do I think we see significant snow in SNE....no....but it won't be mild, either.

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