March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[metagraphica]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Winter Strom warning all the way to the ma NH border now

Meanwhile we have a 'cold water while boating' hazardous weather outlook down here:

Air temperatures will rise into the 70s to lower 80s across much of
the region on Saturday. However, water temperatures remain in the 40s
and 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia
and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water.
Anyone venturing out on the water in small boats, canoes or kayaks
tomorrow should be mindful of the cold water dangers.

[Damage In Tolland]

Furnaced month 

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1905740499652395347?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Lava Rock]

Furnaced month 
https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1905740499652395347?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

12th? Wtf cares

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[Torch Tiger]

25 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

12th? Wtf cares

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That's 12th out of 140? years of records. Wowzers

[Lava Rock]

That's 12th out of 140? years of records. Wowzers

Meh. Get back to me when it's top 5

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[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

12th? Wtf cares

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Enjoy winter and indoors thru late Napril there 

[Lava Rock]

Enjoy winter and indoors thru late Napril there 

I will

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[CoastalWx]

Back half of this month had sucked 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Back half of this month had sucked 

Not inland 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not inland 

Si inland

[CoastalWx]

All around. Meh since Erin went braless on 3/16

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Si inland

We’ve had some nice days. Even today was sunny and 50’s

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve had some nice days. Even today was sunny and 50’s

Today was nice and then clouded over. Meh.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Today was nice and then clouded over. Meh.

Sunny all day here 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Saw first bats of the season tonight, always good to see them show up in the spring. 

[Dan76]

Frist Osprey  of the year today 

[dendrite]

Fish has some mentally ill followers

[Damage In Tolland]

Summer animals out, trees and plants starting to bud ready to pop been a torch Morch . We close 

[dendrite]

Still have snow banks here. Still an inch of snow from the other day in the shaded areas too. Just when it seems like we’re on the other side winter decides to return. Freakin CAD.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Still have snow banks here. Still an inch of snow from the other day in the shaded areas too. Just when it seems like we’re on the other side winter decides to return. Freakin CAD.

Would you move?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would you move?

Thought about it. The high terrain of NE CT seems like a good place for a long growing season, nice breaks from the cold in winter, not excessively snowy either. A very safe place for my fruit trees.

[CoastalWx]

Forsythia about to burst here 

[powderfreak]

Solid AFD from BTV... noting a few spots may approach Ice Storm Warning criteria.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 655 PM EDT Friday...Based on crnt sfc obs and radar trends
have delayed arrival of steadier precip by 1 to 3 hours,
otherwise rest of fcst in good shape. Crntly still pretty dry in
the llvls with sfc dwpts in the single digits to mid teens,
while cloud hghts are btwn 7000 and 12000 feet agl. Initial
returns on radar have only resulted in a few flakes in the
Potsdam area per webcams. However, expect deeper moisture and
better lift over central NY to converge with additional moisture
angling east/southeast over the Great Lakes to quickly enhance
precip returns from west to east acrs our cwa btwn 9 PM and
midnight.

Guidance continues to support favorable parameters for
narrow band of enhanced heavier qpf btwn midnight and 9 AM Sat,
associated with strong 850mb fgen forcing with quasi stationary
west to east boundary draped acrs our fa. Also, pretty
impressive lightning display associated with elevated
instability and embedded s/w energy upstream over the
central/northern Great Lakes, which wl push into our cwa,
helping to enhance hourly precip rates on Saturday morning.
Have noted the HREF hrly ensemble mean snowfall rates of 0.50 to
0.75" btwn midnight and 10 AM acrs northern NY into
central/northern VT. This correlates well with GFS/NAM/RAP/HRRR
all showing a 4 to 8 hour window of 0.60 to 0.80 QPF mostly in
the form of snow mainly along and north of a Malone to BTV to
MPV line, while a messy mix of snow/sleet and freezing rain is
expected south. Generally 2 to 6 inches of snow anticipated by
sunrise north with a dusting to 2 inches south, along with ice
accumulation of 0.05 to 0.15".

By midday, better forcing and axis of enhanced qpf should drop
south over our central/southern cwa, where additional ice
accumulation is likely thru Sat night. Always a little
concerning for additional snowfall accumulation during the
daytime hours in the valleys if the strongest forcing/best lift
and associated heavy precip rates are not directly overhead and
the old 540DAM thickness line is hovering near the International
Border. This could result in sleet/mixed precip a bit further
north and at the same time we wl have to watch drier air
advecting into our northern zones, which can uncut the better
moisture, especially on Sat aftn.

Its extremely challenging to determine ice accumulation/impacts
with late March sun angle, marginal temps in the 28-33F range,
and heavy precip rates at times, which can limit ice accretion.
With that said, I feel given the impressive qpf expected acrs parts
of central/southern VT and Dacks (Eastern Rutland, Eastern
Addison, Orange, and Windsor Counties and Western Essex, NY),
a few areas could approach ice storm warning criteria by 15z
Sunday with localized ice amounts >0.50" especially above 800
feet. We wl continue to monitor and pass along potential to
midshift for potential upgrades if necessary.

[ineedsnow]

0z NAM is 30 here while its 76 in SW CT

[CT Valley Snowman]

Yeah SW CT especially Fairfield county is gonna torch tomorrow.  Unfortunately, we lost the warmth here although I was always skeptical to begin with.  

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Solid AFD from BTV... noting a few spots may approach Ice Storm Warning criteria.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 655 PM EDT Friday...Based on crnt sfc obs and radar trends
have delayed arrival of steadier precip by 1 to 3 hours,
otherwise rest of fcst in good shape. Crntly still pretty dry in
the llvls with sfc dwpts in the single digits to mid teens,
while cloud hghts are btwn 7000 and 12000 feet agl. Initial
returns on radar have only resulted in a few flakes in the
Potsdam area per webcams. However, expect deeper moisture and
better lift over central NY to converge with additional moisture
angling east/southeast over the Great Lakes to quickly enhance
precip returns from west to east acrs our cwa btwn 9 PM and
midnight.

Guidance continues to support favorable parameters for
narrow band of enhanced heavier qpf btwn midnight and 9 AM Sat,
associated with strong 850mb fgen forcing with quasi stationary
west to east boundary draped acrs our fa. Also, pretty
impressive lightning display associated with elevated
instability and embedded s/w energy upstream over the
central/northern Great Lakes, which wl push into our cwa,
helping to enhance hourly precip rates on Saturday morning.
Have noted the HREF hrly ensemble mean snowfall rates of 0.50 to
0.75" btwn midnight and 10 AM acrs northern NY into
central/northern VT. This correlates well with GFS/NAM/RAP/HRRR
all showing a 4 to 8 hour window of 0.60 to 0.80 QPF mostly in
the form of snow mainly along and north of a Malone to BTV to
MPV line, while a messy mix of snow/sleet and freezing rain is
expected south. Generally 2 to 6 inches of snow anticipated by
sunrise north with a dusting to 2 inches south, along with ice
accumulation of 0.05 to 0.15".

By midday, better forcing and axis of enhanced qpf should drop
south over our central/southern cwa, where additional ice
accumulation is likely thru Sat night. Always a little
concerning for additional snowfall accumulation during the
daytime hours in the valleys if the strongest forcing/best lift
and associated heavy precip rates are not directly overhead and
the old 540DAM thickness line is hovering near the International
Border. This could result in sleet/mixed precip a bit further
north and at the same time we wl have to watch drier air
advecting into our northern zones, which can uncut the better
moisture, especially on Sat aftn.

Its extremely challenging to determine ice accumulation/impacts
with late March sun angle, marginal temps in the 28-33F range,
and heavy precip rates at times, which can limit ice accretion.
With that said, I feel given the impressive qpf expected acrs parts
of central/southern VT and Dacks (Eastern Rutland, Eastern
Addison, Orange, and Windsor Counties and Western Essex, NY),
a few areas could approach ice storm warning criteria by 15z
Sunday with localized ice amounts >0.50" especially above 800
feet. We wl continue to monitor and pass along potential to
midshift for potential upgrades if necessary.

Those areas above 800’ open to the NE and more central and srn VT will get smoked I think. But you will see huge variations given the factors stated above and what I mentioned earlier. 

[WinterSnow]

Keep that torch below me, please.

But I suspect it will make it up to me because I'd hate it and that's how weather works in my life. Totally not scientific, but it happens anyway.

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Saw first bats of the season tonight, always good to see them show up in the spring. 

They'll be under my shutters shitting on my patio soon enough.

[dryslot]

11 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m mildly concerned we’re gonna get into a pattern of crappy weekends.

Heading into april would not be surprised.

[Sn0waddict]

Looking forward to my three, maybe if I’m lucky five hour torch tomorrow? That cold front is going to feel terrible once it comes through though lol