wxeyeNH Posted Friday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:22 PM I'm sure parts of New England will go under a freezing rain advisory but what are the chances of putting out an Ice Storm Warning? That calls for .5" of ice or more. Looking at the models that does look possible for parts of Central NE. Thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted Friday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:35 PM 1 hour ago, dryslot said: May have too, Looks like garbage weather into monday. I’m mildly concerned we’re gonna get into a pattern of crappy weekends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Friday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:37 PM 14 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I'm sure parts of New England will go under a freezing rain advisory but what are the chances of putting out an Ice Storm Warning? That calls for .5" of ice or more. Looking at the models that does look possible for parts of Central NE. Thoughts? There is no more ice storm watch, just right into ice storm warning. I don't think there are any other advisories tied into solely freezing rain (though winter weather advisory could cover minor glazing). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Friday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:43 PM 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:49 PM I don't envy GYX. Unlike an icing event earlier in the season when you just need to look at soundings, there's like 4 more variables in this one. This isn't as easy as looking at FRAM output. 1) Elevation 2) Solar Insolation 3) Wind speed/direction 4) precip rates/type 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Friday at 04:54 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:54 PM 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: OH I've completely prepped myself mentally for tomorrow's barrel bottom abysmality - and kudos to the modeling tech ambit, which overall ... hasn't given anyone much reason to delude themselves for days of persistence with this set up. So much so in fact my attitude's turned to embrace it. Great weather nerding opportunity! There's going to be some pretty fantastic meteorological aspects of this weekend's affairs, both in the larger synoptic specter, but also what's likely going to be observed at the discrete scales. I mean, it is not inconceivable that the lowest 100 mb of the atmosphere is if anything cold enough along Rt 2 for icing, while NYC is nearing 80 F. This somewhat reminds me of the extraordinary differentials that occurred in late March, 1998. Unlike this time, that one was a real backdoor front. This, btw, is not that. The front is in fact laying down across pretty much my house, during today. It just doesn't ever go back N as a warm front in the present guidance mean. "back dooring,", in the sense of the verb, is more for whence the front then bends around and starts collapsing SW through CT during tomorrow - where ever that happens, they could doing a 70 to 38 F hour. Or, it's possible that the whole thing is back built more than guidance by 12z. Some runs, like the ICON...are south of NYC - that's not exactly climo unfriendly in late march with a +PP toting polar air off a Canadian snow shield. It's a nerd's extravaganza of testable aspect tomorrow. LOL I figure in the end, who cares. One fuckin' weekend ain't hurtin' much. Let it ice and sleet itself to a bullshit hide the season on March 29th all it wants ... Summer is still coming. Yup, what he said- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:01 PM I wish we had more precip in this area.. hoping we slide south the next 24 hours.. if not we take a hour drive north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Friday at 05:12 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:12 PM 11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I wish we had more precip in this area.. hoping we slide south the next 24 hours.. if not we take a hour drive north Even my area with a hundreth of a inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Friday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:30 PM 46 minutes ago, dendrite said: Get excited and get prepared! Shits crashing down! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Friday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:42 PM Apparently that’s flat accretion too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted Friday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:46 PM 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Ugh, gross. Get that lavender shade off of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Friday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:06 PM 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: Apparently that’s flat accretion too. So .39 of about .6? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted Friday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:28 PM BTV's take on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Friday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:36 PM 58/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted Friday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:03 PM 26 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 58/11 Wish that breeze would subside a bit and the dews would come up to enjoy it before this weekend. Chilly out there! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Friday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:37 PM BTV's take on things.Me in that tiny little sliver of rain only... For once, no complaintsSnow I loveSleet is fun Rain is relaxing But *fuck ice storms*Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted Friday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:43 PM Solidly in the 4-6". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Friday at 07:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:52 PM Winter Strom warning all the way to the ma NH border now 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:10 PM 27 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Solidly in the 4-6". Lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted Friday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:21 PM 27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Winter Strom warning all the way to the ma NH border now Except my county (Grafton) in NH. Just a winter weather advisory here. Personally, I would have included it. It seems Gray goes conservative much of the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 08:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:32 PM 10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Except my county (Grafton) in NH. Just a winter weather advisory here. Personally, I would have included it. It seems Gray goes conservative much of the time It’s probably because the WSW is more for freezing rain and they feel that criteria will be met further south of you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Friday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:39 PM Dendy ground zero with strong wording for significant damage and outages . Reminiscent of that Morch icestorm in Upstate NY / Rochester area back the early 90’s. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted Friday at 08:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:40 PM 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: OH I've completely prepped myself mentally for tomorrow's barrel bottom abysmality - and kudos to the modeling tech ambit, which overall ... hasn't given anyone much reason to delude themselves for days of persistence with this set up. So much so in fact my attitude's turned to embrace it. Great weather nerding opportunity! There's going to be some pretty fantastic meteorological aspects of this weekend's affairs, both in the larger synoptic specter, but also what's likely going to be observed at the discrete scales. I mean, it is not inconceivable that the lowest 100 mb of the atmosphere is if anything cold enough along Rt 2 for icing, while NYC is nearing 80 F. This somewhat reminds me of the extraordinary differentials that occurred in late March, 1998. Unlike this time, that one was a real backdoor front. This, btw, is not that. The front is in fact laying down across pretty much my house, during today. It just doesn't ever go back N as a warm front in the present guidance mean. "back dooring,", in the sense of the verb, is more for whence the front then bends around and starts collapsing SW through CT during tomorrow - where ever that happens, they could doing a 70 to 38 F hour. Or, it's possible that the whole thing is back built more than guidance by 12z. Some runs, like the ICON...are south of NYC - that's not exactly climo unfriendly in late march with a +PP toting polar air off a Canadian snow shield. It's a nerd's extravaganza of testable aspect tomorrow. LOL I figure in the end, who cares. One fuckin' weekend ain't hurtin' much. Let it ice and sleet itself to a bullshit hide the season on March 29th all it wants ... Summer is still coming. I'll be pushing 80 down here 10 miles WNW of Manhattan, meanwhile Stowe gets 6-8"+ Can't recall ever seeing that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Friday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:58 PM 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s probably because the WSW is more for freezing rain and they feel that criteria will be met further south of you. Yeah…not enough frozen to trigger a WSW up there and not enough ZR either. The high terrain further south is where they’re expecting the outages…E Sullivan/Cheshire and W Merrimack/Hillsborough. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Friday at 09:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:03 PM 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dendy ground zero with strong wording for significant damage and outages . Reminiscent of that Morch icestorm in Upstate NY / Rochester area back the early 90’s. I think I’m going to have quite a bit of sleet tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted Friday at 09:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:05 PM 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah…not enough frozen to trigger a WSW up there and not enough ZR either. The high terrain further south is where they’re expecting the outages…E Sullivan/Cheshire and W Merrimack/Hillsborough. Yeah, I get that. I think the black asphalt roads will be okay except places like your hill facing north. It will be an interesting weather day for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Friday at 09:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:10 PM 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think I’m going to have quite a bit of sleet tomorrow. I think you’ll get primarily ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Friday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:18 PM 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think you’ll get primarily ZR 3k is like 12hrs of pingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Friday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:27 PM 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: 3k is like 12hrs of pingers The warm nose is always faster and farther north than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Friday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:43 PM 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The warm nose is always faster and farther north than modeled. Okay what does that have to do with the cold wedge below it? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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