March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NAM has 70+ well into south central NH on Saturday 

I’ll sell that. I’ll also sell those ice maps from gfs. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll sell that. I’ll also sell those ice maps from gfs. 

NAM usually is best with cold wedge so it’s refreshing to see that warmth so far north on it 

[dendrite]

There’s a wave of low pressure moving across the region during the day Saturday. Once it passes it opens the door for the cold to spill south into CT. 

[ineedsnow]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll sell that. I’ll also sell those ice maps from gfs. 

Ya but even half that up there would cause issues.. models are showing big amounts of ice somewhere.. southern parts of Canada gone? 

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Only one day below freezing in over two weeks. We grow.

How long ?

[powderfreak]

Winter.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How long ?

I mean that’s all I’ve had. It’s been spring since 3/10.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Winter.

Is that Denali?

[dryslot]

Spring.......lol

[Typhoon Tip]

 ...  It's a sharpy differentiated air mass situation this weekend, particularly Saturday.  Actually some of the bigger lateral gradients, across the boundary, as we are capable of physically generating around here - mainly the warm side is being rather eye-poppish.  

I like this UKMET's  Rembrandting, call it the "Portrait Of Frustration"  ... But it's also among the warm guidance. The GFS and less popular ICON as others were noted are suppressing the boundary farther S than this below. 

As I said yesterday ... climo, and experience, both, for late March do not support any warmth N of central NJ - particularly when you have +PP loading going on across southern Ontario, spilling around the corner of the Whites/Greens topography.   The models are likely not correct in the implied vector pointing SW due to the fluid mechanics of DVM curl - that is a built in perpetual restoring force in this cold suck circumstance around here. 

The only way to combat that is to change the synoptics.  so we'll see ... good luck

[Lava Rock]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Spring.......lol

please warm up and melt this garbage already

[Typhoon Tip]

The NAM actually does have a different synoptic scenario - not a lot but crucially so.  It has a slightly stronger surface wave moving along the boundary along a farther N latitude - actually way up by PF-Dryslot transit.  

The 12z precariously dangling boundary that's sort of right on top of me actually ...ends up over N Nashua NH by 10 and to 2pm.

Two cautions though...    The NAM typically has a N/NW bias at this range with just about everything that it does.   The other is probably an even greater limitation on confidence,   it's the NAM.  

I don't know but expressively it's like 1::100 return rate for the a warm solution to work given a NAM vs the world competition in this regard.  Yeah, it's true that the NAM [ in theory ] should have better surface resolution when it comes to cold undercutting antics...  however, that is moot if the wave does in fact scoot by that far N - I'm just not sure that's not a NAM fantasy.    If that corrects S along with the front, the NAM would then be the more aggressive and the BD slams through Chesapeake Bay

[mreaves]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Is that Denali?

You mean McKinley, right?

[weatherwiz]

Going to see a few nasty S-N moving supercells in Washington State today. Don't know what the record hail size is in Washington but I say they break it today. There will be a >2" hail report...book it

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, mreaves said:

You mean McKinley, right?

Donald, is that you?

[dendrite]

Gulf of Nova Scotia

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI gets the front barely to HFD. Skynet knows.

[weatherwiz]

This is bull****. The deep south got a bigger winter storm than we did and now the PAC NW will get a better severe event than we will this summer. May as well just skip summer and try luck with next winter

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

This is bull****. The deep south got a bigger winter storm than we did and now the PAC NW will get a better severe event than we will this summer. May as well just skip summer and try luck with next winter

When will you learn we suck for severe?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

When will you learn we suck for severe?

Never!!!

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

This is bull****. The deep south got a bigger winter storm than we did and now the PAC NW will get a better severe event than we will this summer. May as well just skip summer and try luck with next winter

Just wait until Quebec gets a better spring. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Just wait until Quebec gets a better spring. 

Yup...not looking forward to them pulling off 83 while its 52, cloudy, and drizzle here

[CoastalWx]

6z Euro cancelling warmth in Tolland. Hate to see it. Wolfie out in a thong.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Is that Denali?

Lol… since 1:30pm yesterday.  W. T. F. 

[Snowcrazed71]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z Euro cancelling warmth in Tolland. Hate to see it. Wolfie out in a thong.

Lol... Poor DIT.... 

It's close though.... Any deviation within 25 miles will be the difference between swamp ass and chilled underpants. 

[Ginx snewx]

It's a different world in NNE Stowe 

9:30 AM Update - High Road Snow Plot observation showing 9" since 1:30pm yesterday, including 7" after 4pm.  Powder day.

[Layman]

18 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Back in the day, there was this stuff called Ultimate Orange. I think it rivaled any high quality blow lol. 

Absolutely.  Dan Duchaine FTW formulating the original.  There were some exceptional pre-workouts in the early 2000's that HAD to have been spiked with Adderall.  I remember feeling like a machine on some of them.  

48 here at 10:45am.  Definitely pulling for the NAM to be right this weekend.  Even just a taste of 70's before crashing back to the high 30's will be fine.

[ma blizzard]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Lol… since 1:30pm yesterday.  W. T. F. 

I think we’ve had 1 storm of that magnitude in the past 4 years .. must be nice  

 

[DavisStraight]

46 minutes ago, Layman said:

Absolutely.  Dan Duchaine FTW formulating the original.  There were some exceptional pre-workouts in the early 2000's that HAD to have been spiked with Adderall.  I remember feeling like a machine on some of them.  

48 here at 10:45am.  Definitely pulling for the NAM to be right this weekend.  Even just a taste of 70's before crashing back to the high 30's will be fine.

I think Ultimate Orange is back on shelves, I used to take those pre workout supplements, spend 20 minutes in the bathroom and then get in a good workout.

[Cold Miser]

Me going through some old photos and realizing how much of a weenie I am. This pic was from 10 years ago.  I have so many pics from snow events, and many are just rulers stuck in the ground from during snow hikes.