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March DISCO/OBS: Please End It


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Also with that higher theta-e 925 and above...there could be a stratus deck keeping temps cool too just north of the front. If this were just a feeble front with the danger being more of a seabreeze and clear skies..it would be much warmer further north. Some models indicate a cloud risk. 

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Exactly. 

 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a warm front lifting north, but the flow begins to turn and accelerate a bit Saturday morning and eventually pushes it southwest. So maybe semantics, but I wouldn't say it's just a warm front lifting north. 

Since I do like being technical, the more correct process here would be warm front lifting northward, then becoming stationary, and potentially retreating south as what would then be a cold front. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If it's moderate or greater, it will accumulate even in April. We have this argument all the time. If it's like 33F with 1SM vis during the height of the day, you won't get much.

The ground is warm and wet it would have had to been very heavy snow for the accumulation to not be affected. Air temp was 37 when the snow began to fall.  

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Since I do like being technical, the more correct process here would be warm front lifting northward, then becoming stationary, and potentially retreating south as what would then be a cold front. 

I'm not worried about what it is vs how these typically behave. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Also with that higher theta-e 925 and above...there could be a stratus deck keeping temps cool too just north of the front. If this were just a feeble front with the danger being more of a seabreeze and clear skies..it would be much warmer further north. Some models indicate a cloud risk. 

I feel like you'll have to really be a good like 75 miles into the warm sector to maximize the true warmth. There is a great deal of llvl moisture along and even just behind the front. If this was late May we could probably mix that out but that's a struggle in late March. 

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Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

The ground is warm and wet it would have had to been very heavy snow for the accumulation to not be affected. Air temp was 37 when the snow began to fall.  

On 3/30/97 it was 70. On 3/31 at 3P it was heavy wet snow with 4" tire ruts on rt 24 south of Boston. If it's moderate to heavy, it will stick at 32F or lower.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I love ground is too warm arguments. Keep them coming. Nom Nom Nom Nom.  :popcorn:

How many times have we disproven the warm ground doesn’t matter if it’s snowing steadily and hard?

We’ll get May accums if it’s ripping 0.1”/hr water.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

On 3/30/97 it was 70. On 3/31 at 3P it was heavy wet snow with 4" tire ruts on rt 24 south of Boston. If it's moderate to heavy, it will stick at 32F or lower.

ah,,when did the bulk of that snow fall?????????????..and as I mentioned very heavy snowfall rates...

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8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

ah,,when did the bulk of that snow fall?????????????..and as I mentioned very heavy snowfall rates...

You don't need 4"/hr snow and this was during the day when it was like 1"/hr or a bit more...IE moderate to heavy. 

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

How many times have we disproven the warm ground doesn’t matter if it’s snowing steadily and hard?

We’ll get May accums if it’s ripping 0.1”/hr water.

You can only lead them to water.

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You don't need 4"/hr snow and this was during the day when it was like 1"/hr or a bit more...IE moderate to heavy. 

I do recall the bulk of the accumulation taking place in the overnight hours. I do recall being at a liquor store in Methuen that night doing an audit for a side gig I had at the time. The roads certainly weren't all that bad to drive on at around 6 PM

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11 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I do recall the bulk of the accumulation taking place in the overnight hours. I do recall being at a liquor store in Methuen that night doing an audit for a side gig I had at the time. The roads certainly weren't all that bad to drive on at around 6 PM

Sounds like you were shitfaced and don't remember. I sure do.

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11 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

But again you are pointing out the exceptions....

I'm not. I am pointing out that snow can easily stick when it's moderate to heavy even if it was mild the day before. If you had those rates the other day, there is no question Methuen would have done just fine. 

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love ground is too warm arguments. Keep them coming. Nom Nom Nom Nom.  :popcorn:

Tried to tell him…he wasn’t understanding.  The sad part is, there are METS out there on TV that say stupid crap like that too. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Tried to tell him…he wasn’t understanding.  The sad part is, there are METS out there on TV that say stupid crap like that too. 

Halloween 2011 was the best example. Poor OKX used that as part of their reasoning. Oops.

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32 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

ah,,when did the bulk of that snow fall?????????????..and as I mentioned very heavy snowfall rates...

The great April blizzard of 82….snowed all day during the day.  It doesn’t matter if the day before was literally 80 degrees…or the sun angle nonsense,  we’ve proven this time and time again. The rates are all you need. April, May, October..it doesn’t matter at all.  

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Halloween 2011 was the best example. Poor OKX used that as part of their reasoning. Oops.

Yes, exactly my point, I remember that so well October 2011. We had OCM saying it too in CT…it didn’t matter one bit…the snow stuck like there was crazy glue on the ground.  

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The great April blizzard of 82….snowed all day during the day.  It doesn’t matter if the day before was literally 80 degrees…we’ve proven this time and time again. The rates are all you need. April, May, October..it doesn’t matter at all.  

what was the air temp during the storm?....

 

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1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

what was the air temp during the storm?....

 

Yes, that was a cold storm…But that doesn’t matter.  October 2011 was 30-32 for alot of it.  Just yesterday it was around 30 too in a lot of areas.  1997 same thing.  It’s all about  the rates. Doesn’t matter what time of day either. 

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