CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:45 PM Also with that higher theta-e 925 and above...there could be a stratus deck keeping temps cool too just north of the front. If this were just a feeble front with the danger being more of a seabreeze and clear skies..it would be much warmer further north. Some models indicate a cloud risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Tuesday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:45 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:38 PM, jbenedet said: Exactly. Expand On 3/25/2025 at 6:40 PM, CoastalWx said: It's a warm front lifting north, but the flow begins to turn and accelerate a bit Saturday morning and eventually pushes it southwest. So maybe semantics, but I wouldn't say it's just a warm front lifting north. Expand Since I do like being technical, the more correct process here would be warm front lifting northward, then becoming stationary, and potentially retreating south as what would then be a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 06:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:46 PM Euro is warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 06:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:46 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:41 PM, CoastalWx said: If it's moderate or greater, it will accumulate even in April. We have this argument all the time. If it's like 33F with 1SM vis during the height of the day, you won't get much. Expand The ground is warm and wet it would have had to been very heavy snow for the accumulation to not be affected. Air temp was 37 when the snow began to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:47 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:45 PM, weatherwiz said: Since I do like being technical, the more correct process here would be warm front lifting northward, then becoming stationary, and potentially retreating south as what would then be a cold front. Expand I'm not worried about what it is vs how these typically behave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Tuesday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:47 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:45 PM, CoastalWx said: Also with that higher theta-e 925 and above...there could be a stratus deck keeping temps cool too just north of the front. If this were just a feeble front with the danger being more of a seabreeze and clear skies..it would be much warmer further north. Some models indicate a cloud risk. Expand I feel like you'll have to really be a good like 75 miles into the warm sector to maximize the true warmth. There is a great deal of llvl moisture along and even just behind the front. If this was late May we could probably mix that out but that's a struggle in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:48 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:46 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: The ground is warm and wet it would have had to been very heavy snow for the accumulation to not be affected. Air temp was 37 when the snow began to fall. Expand On 3/30/97 it was 70. On 3/31 at 3P it was heavy wet snow with 4" tire ruts on rt 24 south of Boston. If it's moderate to heavy, it will stick at 32F or lower. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:49 PM I love ground is too warm arguments. Keep them coming. Nom Nom Nom Nom. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Tuesday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:50 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:49 PM, CoastalWx said: I love ground is too warm arguments. Keep them coming. Nom Nom Nom Nom. Expand How many times have we disproven the warm ground doesn’t matter if it’s snowing steadily and hard? We’ll get May accums if it’s ripping 0.1”/hr water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 06:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:53 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:48 PM, CoastalWx said: On 3/30/97 it was 70. On 3/31 at 3P it was heavy wet snow with 4" tire ruts on rt 24 south of Boston. If it's moderate to heavy, it will stick at 32F or lower. Expand ah,,when did the bulk of that snow fall?????????????..and as I mentioned very heavy snowfall rates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Tuesday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:54 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:49 PM, CoastalWx said: I love ground is too warm arguments. Keep them coming. Nom Nom Nom Nom. Expand Thanksgiving plate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:02 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:53 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: ah,,when did the bulk of that snow fall?????????????..and as I mentioned very heavy snowfall rates... Expand You don't need 4"/hr snow and this was during the day when it was like 1"/hr or a bit more...IE moderate to heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:50 PM, powderfreak said: How many times have we disproven the warm ground doesn’t matter if it’s snowing steadily and hard? We’ll get May accums if it’s ripping 0.1”/hr water. Expand You can only lead them to water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM How about 4/28/87 when it was accumulating duringtrhe day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM On 3/25/2025 at 7:02 PM, CoastalWx said: You don't need 4"/hr snow and this was during the day when it was like 1"/hr or a bit more...IE moderate to heavy. Expand I do recall the bulk of the accumulation taking place in the overnight hours. I do recall being at a liquor store in Methuen that night doing an audit for a side gig I had at the time. The roads certainly weren't all that bad to drive on at around 6 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM How about May 11 , 1978 with 6-12 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 07:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:06 PM On 3/25/2025 at 7:03 PM, CoastalWx said: How about 4/28/87 when it was accumulating duringtrhe day. Expand But again you are pointing out the exceptions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 07:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:06 PM On 3/25/2025 at 7:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said: How about May 11 , 1978 with 6-12 ? Expand not here in Methuen....that was mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Tuesday at 07:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:11 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:48 PM, CoastalWx said: On 3/30/97 it was 70. On 3/31 at 3P it was heavy wet snow with 4" tire ruts on rt 24 south of Boston. If it's moderate to heavy, it will stick at 32F or lower. Expand What was the temp on that storm? Upper 20s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:17 PM On 3/25/2025 at 7:05 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: I do recall the bulk of the accumulation taking place in the overnight hours. I do recall being at a liquor store in Methuen that night doing an audit for a side gig I had at the time. The roads certainly weren't all that bad to drive on at around 6 PM Expand Sounds like you were shitfaced and don't remember. I sure do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:18 PM On 3/25/2025 at 7:11 PM, DavisStraight said: What was the temp on that storm? Upper 20s? Expand Started out low 40s in my area in the morning and dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM On 3/25/2025 at 7:06 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: But again you are pointing out the exceptions.... Expand I'm not. I am pointing out that snow can easily stick when it's moderate to heavy even if it was mild the day before. If you had those rates the other day, there is no question Methuen would have done just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:49 PM, CoastalWx said: I love ground is too warm arguments. Keep them coming. Nom Nom Nom Nom. Expand Tried to tell him…he wasn’t understanding. The sad part is, there are METS out there on TV that say stupid crap like that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:20 PM On 3/25/2025 at 7:19 PM, WinterWolf said: Tried to tell him…he wasn’t understanding. The sad part is, there are METS out there on TV that say stupid crap like that too. Expand Halloween 2011 was the best example. Poor OKX used that as part of their reasoning. Oops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:23 PM On 3/25/2025 at 6:53 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: ah,,when did the bulk of that snow fall?????????????..and as I mentioned very heavy snowfall rates... Expand The great April blizzard of 82….snowed all day during the day. It doesn’t matter if the day before was literally 80 degrees…or the sun angle nonsense, we’ve proven this time and time again. The rates are all you need. April, May, October..it doesn’t matter at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 07:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:25 PM On 3/25/2025 at 7:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Halloween 2011 was the best example. Poor OKX used that as part of their reasoning. Oops. Expand Yes, exactly my point, I remember that so well October 2011. We had OCM saying it too in CT…it didn’t matter one bit…the snow stuck like there was crazy glue on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:26 PM On 3/25/2025 at 7:23 PM, WinterWolf said: The great April blizzard of 82….snowed all day during the day. It doesn’t matter if the day before was literally 80 degrees…we’ve proven this time and time again. The rates are all you need. April, May, October..it doesn’t matter at all. Expand what was the air temp during the storm?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:29 PM On 3/25/2025 at 7:26 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: what was the air temp during the storm?.... Expand What exactly are you arguing? Are you saying that it wouldn't have accumulated the other day in Methuen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:30 PM On 3/25/2025 at 7:26 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: what was the air temp during the storm?.... Expand Yes, that was a cold storm…But that doesn’t matter. October 2011 was 30-32 for alot of it. Just yesterday it was around 30 too in a lot of areas. 1997 same thing. It’s all about the rates. Doesn’t matter what time of day either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Tuesday at 07:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:31 PM On 3/25/2025 at 7:29 PM, CoastalWx said: What exactly are you arguing? Are you saying that it wouldn't have accumulated the other day in Methuen? Expand As I mentioned it would have accumulated if it was snowing heavily.....but with that said the accumulation would still have been impacted by the air temp and the ground temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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