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March DISCO/OBS: Please End It


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

GFS has 34 degrees on Saturday, Euro has 77 degrees

Ugh. Wish I hadn’t seen that. If I end up 32° while CT is 70s on Sat afternoon I’m going to have to sacrifice a few people. 
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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Ugh. Wish I hadn’t seen that. If I end up 32° while CT is 70s on Sat afternoon I’m going to have to sacrifice a few people. 
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It’s already begun in srn VT since 2K got screwed in a late season event.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s already begun in srn VT since 2K got screwed in a late season event.

Man look at Wey…44 on Saturday, while we bask in 75.   As has been suggested, that warmth probably all ends up further SW of SNE, but that would be something. 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't plan on sustained nice weather until May in this area, on average....

Sure…I get it. But if I’m going to be dreary 30s on a weekend I’m taking SOP down with me. 

The spring equivalent of “rains to Maine”.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Sure…I get it. But if I’m going to be dreary 30s on a weekend I’m taking SOP down with me. 

The spring equivalent of “rains to Maine”.

We're onto gypsie moths, installs and spring clean up at this point...and then we passive aggressively chastise those who don't keep up with our timeline.

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's March...we enjoy the nice guys and suffer through the shitty days...but these shitty days with clouds/rain early in spring are needed so we don't burn come summer. 

How much rain did we get last Feb/Mar again?

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1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said:

70s on the Euro , 30s on the GFS here for Saturday. We all know the gfs will win this one :axe:

time to force feed a random poster a bunch of philosophy no one asked for ...

When one implements a combination of climatology with experience, this weekend's doesn't have a prayer of elevating temperatures as high as the Euro vision ...anywhere N and E of about middle NJ   About ... oh, 1 time in 100, warmth wins when looking at a 108 hour table setting that features pure arctic crystal air slabbed into Ontario, back built by actual sfc +PP.   ... so, we'll see..  

Over the next 10 days, the EPO rises into a warm mode(positive), while he PNA settles into a warm mode (negative), per the ensemble mean derivatives from both the EPS and GEFs.  

Yet, among the operational model versions, we have been seeing these persistently modeled impressive cold slabs at continental sized air masses, dumped into southern Canada, replete with +PP to implicate the correction vector is always pointed S ...

The ens/indexes have seasonality + some of other argumentative stuff to support it.

These op versions have an antecedent cold winter ( relative to the world) persistence that despite some mild days recently, doesn't really "feel" like it's let completely go of the nut grip.   Not when you see this f-up verkokta hemisphere below... This is a minefield of reasons not to assume it warms up until something erases this the hemisphere in lieu of an entirely new paradigm.  I'm not sure what that will take ... maybe July ?     For that matter, how the hell the numerical calculations for the index fields end up with a +EPO/-PNA with this is really rather remarkable.  It's like the circulation mode is designed to be cold using warm correlators :blink:

image.png.d23feec6f5450b510dd81b6c8fa540b8.png

 

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