weatherwiz Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 “Aardvark reimagines current weather prediction methods, offering the potential to make weather forecasts faster, cheaper, more flexible and more accurate than ever before,” - This mindset is one of the downfalls of our society. All you have to do is tell someone you can do something for them faster and cheaper and its like dangling a carrot in front of the horse. This crap is food for the gullible. ”Tests of the Aardvark model revealed that it is able to outperform the United States national GFS forecasting system using just 10 per cent of the input data, leading researchers to say it could offer a “revolution in forecasting”. so one of the most important aspects of forecasting, especially for short-term, which is input data...you're just going to totally reject? So what's the method, Miss Cleo's crystal ball? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 1:42 PM, Ginx snewx said: Up and in Hubb with plowable blue snow Expand Eh, low levels look like dung. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 12:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Ineedsnow gone.. disappeared like a pound of stuffing off Scooter’s Tgiving plate . Expand meh I wasn't expecting much to be honest.. when the 3k NAM is the only model showing it you know its crap unless its mid level warmth.. Sometimes I just post to get some weenies going.. We could get a couple up here Monday morning though.. I still think we pull off a couple snow events atleast in my location.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 12:07 PM, CoastalWx said: And that’s quick. Expand Even better when it's weenie stuffing. Wait! Make that sausage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 1:31 PM, weatherwiz said: Hell, actually I think we see some showers/graupel move across the region tomorrow. Expand Ya..that already sounds like a crap day..destructive sunshine type of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 1:46 PM, WinterWolf said: Ya..that already sounds like a crap day..destructive sunshine type of day. Expand yup...that's what I think anyways. And we may not even get that much...eastern areas maybe a tiny bit more. But that is a good shortwave coming through with sfc cold front, cold mid-level temps, steep lapse rates, and CAA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 1:42 PM, weatherwiz said: “Aardvark reimagines current weather prediction methods, offering the potential to make weather forecasts faster, cheaper, more flexible and more accurate than ever before,” - This mindset is one of the downfalls of our society. All you have to do is tell someone you can do something for them faster and cheaper and its like dangling a carrot in front of the horse. This crap is food for the gullible. ”Tests of the Aardvark model revealed that it is able to outperform the United States national GFS forecasting system using just 10 per cent of the input data, leading researchers to say it could offer a “revolution in forecasting”. so one of the most important aspects of forecasting, especially for short-term, which is input data...you're just going to totally reject? So what's the method, Miss Cleo's crystal ball? Expand Be careful this was developed by some of the premier minds in physics and Met Before you jump off a cliff read the paper. Amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Strongest sustained winds I’ve seen in quite some time here. Never seen my neighbors trampoline move before now it’s over the fence and in my yard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 35.5° Flaking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 1:49 PM, Ginx snewx said: Be careful this was developed by some of the premier minds in physics and Met Before you jump off a cliff read the paper. Amazing Expand I'm always happy to read the papers on this stuff but when I do I always find a ton of red flags. First off, because everyone is so interested in AI and there is alot of money to be had, it is extremely easy to suck people in and its even easier to align a presentation or paper in a way that is easily going to do that. Alot of these papers will tell you about the successes but then beat around the bush when it comes to the failures. "Oh such and such did extremely well with this past storm and nailed it 6 days out and blah blah blah"...then its painted in this glorious light and all of a sudden people are hooked. There are so many red flags out there on this stuff but because its all lead with faster, cheaper, better...those are words which are meant to draw in an audience and from there you can easy manipulate and then just provide them with whatever they want to hear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Actually now that the good free stuff came out, 6z Euro looked ok for pasty several inches maybe for Hubby and Ineedweenies. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Pretty soon there will be 500 different AI models out there and all it is going to do is cause even more confusion and a wide range of forecasts. You'll have the companies or whoever producing these models robbing people and industries blind because they will claim their model is "the best" and they can do it cheaper and faster. "Ohhhh my model hit a thunderstorm that hit West Palm Beach and it showed potential for tree damage on whatever Boulevard and that's exactly what happened". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 10:17 AM, UnitedWx said: What you don't see reported en mass are the areas that welcome some warming. Future population redistribution?... Expand I don't wish to get into a protracted debate but .., relocation would only be a temporary safety measure, not a tactic that will deliver a long term solution. Plus it's not really an option - realistically - when 90 or whatever iniquitous number it is, percent of the global population lives close to or in the poverty level, within drowning distance of sea-level rise and/or death from failure to maintain arable land/agraculture. Also, we are still inside the planetary atmosphere. No matter where we go, all systems are slaved existentially, and dependent upon it to some degree or the other - yes ...some areas more so than other are directly impacted by a changing climate, one that is outpacing regional adaptation rates ( ...uh, they can't keep up with the speed of the change ). But other areas, indirectly so, yeah they may buy some time. What's humanity going to do not if, but when the denial-enabling industrial bubble closes around 8 and a half billion, eating farting over extended species? - move them all to these tiny enclaves and sing Kumbaya? good luck with that. ...I'm not directing this sermon at you I'm just pissed off today. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21 Author Share Posted March 21 We really need Christine back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 1:54 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Strongest sustained winds I’ve seen in quite some time here. Never seen my neighbors trampoline move before now it’s over the fence and in my yard Expand Jump around on it ! 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 1:57 PM, weatherwiz said: I'm always happy to read the papers on this stuff but when I do I always find a ton of red flags. First off, because everyone is so interested in AI and there is alot of money to be had, it is extremely easy to suck people in and its even easier to align a presentation or paper in a way that is easily going to do that. Alot of these papers will tell you about the successes but then beat around the bush when it comes to the failures. "Oh such and such did extremely well with this past storm and nailed it 6 days out and blah blah blah"...then its painted in this glorious light and all of a sudden people are hooked. There are so many red flags out there on this stuff but because its all lead with faster, cheaper, better...those are words which are meant to draw in an audience and from there you can easy manipulate and then just provide them with whatever they want to hear. Expand This is pervasive throughout society no matter the topic. We all have our individual biases where we tend to agree or disagree with whichever topic du jour is being discussed and base our opinions on the data we believe is factual and relevant. The depth of conviction of those individual beliefs and the louder one proclaims their allegiance to them often helps manipulate the audience's commitment to those ideas as you have mentioned. Interesting stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 2:26 PM, Layman said: This is pervasive throughout society no matter the topic. We all have our individual biases where we tend to agree or disagree with whichever topic du jour is being discussed and base our opinions on the data we believe is factual and relevant. The depth of conviction of those individual beliefs and the louder one proclaims their allegiance to them often helps manipulate the audience's commitment to those ideas as you have mentioned. Interesting stuff. Expand I think alot of it is touching a dangerous line. Is there use and benefit with AI, absolutely, 100%. But at the same time I think there is a dangerous line with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Just flipped to snow, 37, winds starting to pick up as the CF approaches 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 1:56 PM, dendrite said: 35.5° Flaking Expand We drove up past your area yesterday heading to Bretton Woods. Rain/mist the entire way until we got about 2 miles onto Route 3 above Cannon. It was beautiful up there! Mid-50's, clear blue skies. Night and day difference. That recent warmth and rain sure decimated the snow depths. Let's get this useless cold out of here and head onto 70+ degree temps! 41 here with 0.45" or rain overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 2:12 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I don't wish to get into a protracted debate but .., relocation would only be a temporary safety measure, not a tactic that will deliver a long term solution. Plus it's not really an option - realistically - when 90 or whatever iniquitous number it is, percent of the global population lives close to or in the poverty level, within drowning distance of sea-level rise and/or death from failure to maintain arable land/agraculture. Also, we are still inside the planetary atmosphere. No matter where we go, all systems are slaved existentially, and dependent upon it to some degree or the other - yes ...some areas more so than other are directly impacted by a changing climate, one that is outpacing regional adaptation rates ( ...uh, they can't keep up with the speed of the change ). But other areas, indirectly so, yeah they may buy some time. What's humanity going to do not if, but when the denial-enabling industrial bubble closes around 8 and a half billion, eating farting over extended species? - move them all to these tiny enclaves and sing Kumbaya? good luck with that. ...I'm not directing this sermon at you I'm just pissed off today. LOL Expand Oh no offense taken, don't worry. It's just an observation I've made the last couple of years but I get your point. And even though we don't agree on everything, you're one of my favorite posters in this forum and have been for years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 2:34 PM, NW_of_GYX said: Just flipped to snow, 37, winds starting to pick up as the CF approaches Expand Just mid-30s catpaws here, especially going over the hill to the west. In other news, the ice jam at Farmington Falls has cleared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Birch bender in progress. 30F 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 2:53 PM, alex said: Birch bender in progress. 30F Expand Yeah you’re probably doing well on the west slope with this. We are tapering off after 2” or so at 1500ft and 3.5” at 3000ft. Heated plaza still on for Will/ORH. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Sun breaking out here and wind is beginning to crank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Pounding sn pretty good at home. 33.1F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 2:34 PM, NW_of_GYX said: Just flipped to snow, 37, winds starting to pick up as the CF approaches Expand Yes, Snowing at good clip here as well, Kind of been of the weather grid here but looks like we have more coming too on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 3:49 PM, dryslot said: Yes, Snowing at good clip here as well, Kind of been of the weather grid here but looks like we have more coming too on Monday. Expand You gettin’ 2”-4” on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 3:54 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: You gettin’ 2”-4” on Monday Expand Seems that way or a bit more, I hadn't looked at a model in 3 weeks once i was done riding, But i just looked at the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Starting to accumulate a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/21/2025 at 4:00 PM, dryslot said: Starting to accumulate a bit. Expand I love how the slide leads right into a puddle of water! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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