weatherwiz Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yeah it's just cold air behind cutters for a day or so and then back to AN And when looking at any "cold shots" in the extended they are going to end up moderating as we get closer. I don't think there is much to suggest its a colder look or we're going to enter a BN regime. The teleconnections can say what they want but there is one thing we're lacking...a colder base across Canada. Just seasonably chilly, at best behind systems. However, if we get some wonky stuff where we're stuck in an onshore misery with extensive clouds and drizzle...that is a different story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Just now, weatherwiz said: And when looking at any "cold shots" in the extended they are going to end up moderating as we get closer. I don't think there is much to suggest its a colder look or we're going to enter a BN regime. The teleconnections can say what they want but there is one thing we're lacking...a colder base across Canada. Just seasonably chilly, at best behind systems. However, if we get some wonky stuff where we're stuck in an onshore misery with extensive clouds and drizzle...that is a different story. Bluewave in the NYC forum showed a map which showed the model bias in the long term-models were too cold past day 7 in a good chunk of the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: agreed but like i said the gains are in the Rockies-New England is flat and I'd counter southern NE smaller areas like Mohawk in CT can't be doing that well the last 10 yrs given the overall warmth. I'd be curious to see how they did this year with the cold Jan/Feb. I went March 1st with my son, but conditions rapidly deteriorated after that weekend with the cutters... Our local area did fabulous this year…they’re still open here. Gonna stay open through next weekend. Great season for them…they made so much snow in January into mid February…their base is carrying them through to the end. Great year for them here in Southington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Memories are short. Unless the arctic is open and pointed in our general direction, the significant bias relative to norms should be AN. You're just facing terrible odds otherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Cousin and her two kids and husband went a few weeks ago somewhere in VT, can’t remember the mountain, but it was $700 all in for tickets and rentals for 1 day for 4 people (only the 2 kids rented skis). It has absolutely become cost prohibitive and I’d guess we are inching towards a tipping point. I’m skeptical of the turnout numbers allegedly being good. Do they count turnout like they count inches of snow at Jay? Regarding the tipping point… I think you can say that about just about any product or service out there right now. Everyone feels like they are at the tipping point whether you are buying groceries or going on vacation. So here’s the thing, the numbers have been decent this season. I think we’ll find it’s down a little bit, as it was expected to be down with the economy, inflation, there was election unknowns at the start of the winter, folks were less likely to pay up front. However, there’s a supply and demand aspect to skiing and riding… where it’s a very fine line between comfortably crowded and oh my god this is a problem crowded. Ski areas hear both complaints that it’s too expensive but it’s also too crowded. So weekend spur-of-the-moment decisions are definitely getting cost prohibiting. The big resorts want you to decide well in advance if you are coming. They do not have the capacity to absorb all of the already planned folks AND a massive influx of spur-of-the-moment decisions. Luckily there are a lot of smaller non-mega resorts to go to as well. Those places are more price friendly for short term decision making. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Bluewave in the NYC forum showed a map which showed the model bias in the long term-models were too cold past day 7 in a good chunk of the east. I mean look at the backside of the past few systems that ejected into the Plains and lifted northeast along with the one for mid-week. For such strong and rapidly deepening low pressure systems, the cold spilling in on the backside seems lackluster. Its cold air wrapping into the system...as soon as these systems are ejecting out of the region, the warm right back up. It's not like these systems are bringing days and prolonged stretches of BN temperatures within the central states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Our local area did fabulous this year…they’re still open here. Gonna stay open through next weekend. Great season for them…they made so much snow in January into mid February…their base is carrying them through to the end. Great year for them here in Southington. Yeah they do a good job with snowmaking. Mohawk is closed this week trying to reopen next weekend but the webcam looks terrible there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Regarding the tipping point… I think you can say that about just about any product or service out there right now. Everyone feels like they are at the tipping point whether you are buying groceries or going on vacation. So here’s the thing, the numbers have been decent this season. I think we’ll find it’s down a little bit was expected to be down with the economy, inflation, there was election unknowns at the start of the winter, folks were less likely to pay up front. However, there’s a supply and demand aspect to skiing and riding… where it’s a very fine line between comfortably crowded and oh my god this is a problem crowded. Ski areas hear both complaints that it’s too expensive but it’s also too crowded. So weekend spur-of-the-moment decisions are definitely getting cost prohibiting. The big resorts want you to decide well in advance if you are coming. They do not have the capacity to absorb all of the already planned folks AND a massive influx of spur-of-the-moment decisions. Luckily there are a lot of smaller non-mega resorts to go to as well. Those places are more price friendly for short term decision making. I am surprised Vail has not bought a few of the smaller places. (Ski Butternut, Mohawk etc) That changed alot for bigger resorts-people buy the EPIC yearly pass now so a good chunk of the skiers are coming regardless. I'd be curious to know how many buy a day or weekend ticket on demand vs 20 yrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Obviously there is higher error at longer leads, but its forecast to pretty negative and it is likely it will at least be somewhat negative given the major disruption to the PV that is ensuing. Again, do I think we see significant snow in SNE....no....but it won't be mild, either. That's worse than higher error. That's "we don't know" data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Any cold or below-average periods will likely be brief and the result of strong fronts moving through as opposed to any significant changes in the pattern. There will be some crap days for sure but the overall but as long as we continue this theme of rapidly deepening lows which eject into the central Plains and lift northeast, the warmth will outweigh the cold. Yeah, I don't have a problem with this idea... Said words to a similar notion earlier myself. I'm sort of jaded by the fact that just about every cold pattern, suggestive by telecon and/or in the materializing charts et al ..., invariably relay from the LR as being a tepid version. It still got "colder" but just not as such - Both aspects can be true, tho. We can be looking at -EPO dump and +PNA relay, *but* ..it ends up being less amped and also faster to move thru. OR, this could be the one time we buck that persistent behavior and get Spring donged up the proverbial butt ... there's always that - 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 17 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Memories are short. Unless the arctic is open and pointed in our general direction, the significant bias relative to norms should be AN. You're just facing terrible odds otherwise... No problems with this take above. I've been saying also for years actually ...that more and more so we are becoming reliant upon direct cold sourcing into events or the profiles ( this'll trigger some posters ...) are rain now. As an afterthought, there's arguments that we are a NJ climate from 1990s - the climate migration up the coast is a real thing 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, I don't have a problem with this idea... Said words to a similar notion earlier myself. I'm sort of jaded by the fact that just about every cold pattern, suggestive by telecon and/or in the materializing charts et al ..., invariably relay from the LR as being a tepid version. It still got "colder" but just not as such - Both aspects can be true, tho. We can be looking at -EPO dump and +PNA relay, *but* ..it ends up being less amped and also faster to move thru. OR, this could be the one time we buck that persistent behavior and get Spring donged up the proverbial butt ... there's always that - Maybe the problem is just where it is being dumped. I know Ray has mentioned this several times, but we haven't really had any patterns favoring dumping the source region cold directly into our region. The dumps have been central Plains, upper-Midwest, and then those airmasses are moderating quickly as the move our way. Also, even this winter was seasonably cold here (I would at least term it that way), it seemed there was just a lack of that bitterly Arctic cold on this side of the hemisphere. There was that one period in mid-February where the central states got it. Ultimately though, from a research perspective, we may have to fine tune expectations or re-define the sensible aspect of weather as a result from the combination of teleconnections. What probably was a strong correlation in the 1970's and 1980's...might not be as strong anymore. And this could be from a variety of different reasons, including just from building the database itself....adding more scenarios to the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: No problems with this take above. I've been saying also for years actually ...that more and more so we are becoming reliant upon direct cold sourcing into events or the profiles ( this'll trigger some posters ...) are rain now. As an afterthought, there's arguments that we are a NJ climate from 1990s - the climate migration up the coast is a real thing Yea, that's my senses as well. You connect other dots related to population flows/migration and it's pretty damning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17 Author Share Posted March 17 22 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That's worse than higher error. That's "we don't know" data. Ok...revisit in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Won't happen but maybe something here 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I am surprised Vail has not bought a few of the smaller places. (Ski Butternut, Mohawk etc) That changed alot for bigger resorts-people buy the EPIC yearly pass now so a good chunk of the skiers are coming regardless. I'd be curious to know how many buy a day or weekend ticket on demand vs 20 yrs ago. Yeah I have no firm data on that but the amount of people using a pre-purchased product to access skiing & riding has to be significantly higher. Also goes to your comment about paid attendance at sports or concerts/shows, vs. actual attendance. In the end, paid attendance is what matters to the business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah I have no firm data on that but the amount of people using a pre-purchased product to access skiing & riding has to be significantly higher. Also goes to your comment about paid attendance at sports or concerts/shows, vs. actual attendance. In the end, paid attendance is what matters to the business. And if I buy an EPIC pass, does that count as one visit or 20? I buy the pass but only ski one day one year at Mt Snow, but the next year I ski 20x? How's that all counted for visits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: And if I buy an EPIC pass, does that count as one visit or 20? I buy the pass but only ski one day one year at Mt Snow, but the next year I ski 20x? How's that all counted for visits? There are different metrics. Skier visits are still counted as an individual unique pass scan on a given day. So if you walk up to a lift, get scanned, that is "1 skier visit" whether you are there all day or just take one run and then go to work. What I was alluding to is when you see the earnings reports and it says "skier visits were down 4% but ticket revenue and units sold was up 5%" is sort of like a sports stadium saying physical attendance was down a bit, but we still sold more tickets ahead of time. I've never seen how many unredeemed days are sold but it has to be a decent number. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Congrats to the Greens and Berkshires on the GFS for Friday. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Well we’ll be back in town Friday evening. Seems we’ll be greeted with oodles of dreck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Hopefully that trends a bit cooler and a little further east 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Euro looks more ANA and less coiled up so fast ...that may actually be more reasonable given the pattern foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Mud season has claimed me as a victim. The thawing of the ground, the heavy rain, and a super heavy oil delivery truck lead to a driveway loss at my house this morning Yikes! I think I'd rather deal with the mud of my gravel driveway than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Back over to light snow even on the valley floor. Crazy after having the sliding doors open last evening and it feeling almost humid, that flakes are now falling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Friday has a chance for measurable and ensembles have a decent signal for next week too. I'm just trying to get to 75% of average, need about a foot to get there. My yard threw in the towel today - first time without a full coverage pack since 11/25. Decent retention year here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 9 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Friday has a chance for measurable and ensembles have a decent signal for next week too. I'm just trying to get to 75% of average, need about a foot to get there. My yard threw in the towel today - first time without a full coverage pack since 11/25. Decent retention year here. I'm at about 80% for the season. I got down to patches with the pre-NYD thaw but other than that it was solid since Thanksgiving week. Just under 4 months 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 At 65.0" here. Annual average is 89", YTD is 77" so we're a foot shy of the 3/17 cumulative. There's no 22" dump around the corner, like last March, but another 6" gets us to 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 5 hours ago, Brian5671 said: the problem is that models have been too cold all winter in the LR....ends up being muted/modified as we get closer in time. I wouldn't disagree with that. I was just making the point that it wasn't showing above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 hopefully the start of a active year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 hour ago, NW_of_GYX said: Friday has a chance for measurable and ensembles have a decent signal for next week too. I'm just trying to get to 75% of average, need about a foot to get there. My yard threw in the towel today - first time without a full coverage pack since 11/25. Decent retention year here. Contemplating skiing SR with wife on Friday, but don't want to be wiping goggles all day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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