March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[CoastalWx]

Warm winter, lasted 4 weeks in Dover. 

[jbenedet]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Warm winter, lasted 4 weeks in Dover. 

A coating in December and a March with April averages but it was a long winter.

[Sn0waddict]

Need weekend looks annoyingly cold if the GFS is right. Hopefully it’s not !

 

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Need weekend looks annoyingly cold if the GFS is right. Hopefully it’s not !

 

Saturday looks chilly, Sunday is like 50F. Any meaningful sun and tick up/take over

[tamarack]

41 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

What an impressive warm stretch; even without major help from teleconnections and MJO…

In that regard things flip biased +AN next week to end of the month.

March gonna end here with April temperature averages.

 

A coating in December and a March with April averages but it was a long winter.

5° AN here after the cold on 3/1-4, but I'd not call it "impressive" - only one day was 10+ AN.  Might get some +15 days with the upcoming rain, however.

GYX has been cautioning about ice jams.  The Sandy jammed briefly in early Dec then the 2" RA cleared it.  Re-jammed later that month, from just upriver from the New Sharon bridge to 1/4 mile upstream from the new bridge in Farmington Falls, about 5 river miles.  Ice is probably being bottom-reduced a bit by river flow after the rain on 3/6.

[tamarack]

On 3/13/2025 at 10:55 AM, CoastalWx said:

Because of CO2. Methane as well. Dumping all that into the atmosphere has an effect. Night time temps warmer, but daytime increasing too. Oceans as well. It all has an effect. 

Only one (non-official) site with a short POR here - 5/98 onward, but the average max has barely moved while the min has climbed quite a bit.

10-year averages:
Period -         MAX    MIN
1999-2008    52.6     30.4
2015-2024    52.7     31.9

1.5° in 16 years for lows, 0.8° for means - I'd call that significant.  (SSS, of course)

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Only one (non-official) site with a short POR here - 5/98 onward, but the average max has barely moved while the min has climbed quite a bit.

10-year averages:
Period -         MAX    MIN
1999-2008    52.6     30.4
2015-2024    52.7     31.9

1.5° in 16 years for lows, 0.8° for means - I'd call that significant.  (SSS, of course)

I think part of the max stasis isn't really something that is necessarily related to CO2 - but a partial constraint, sure... 

By the time we get to 40N, it's harder to get enough insolation in a single diurnal cycle, capable of pushing the maxes through an evaporation exposing air mass.  Evaporation is a heat sink in the mornings.  

The end result, the maxes,   max lower than say ...Iowa, at the same latitude.   They have DP times out there, but they also have other environmental feedbacks that offset.  For example, they are likelier to multi day a heat episode, because the base-line flow structure of the summer continent has a mean WNW trajectory here ... prone to more frequent house cleaner fronts.  That sets them up with a better "thermal battery" with higher and higher successive morning "launch temperatures"  ...etc... There's some complex and subtle feed backs that get them their 105's more frequently using the same sun.   We seem to get heat entries and thoroughfares like,  87 --> 94 --> 101 --> BD or some shallow non-descript possibly not even charted by WPC front  ... and it's game over.

something like this...  meanwhile, the CO2 + WV thermodynamic does support elevating nocturnal temperatures more readily either way comparing both regions.  SO yeah...we're getting sultrier nights in summer with seemingly capped big heat highs.

 

[Sn0waddict]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Saturday looks chilly, Sunday is like 50F. Any meaningful sun and tick up/take over

Friday/Saturday is more what I was referring to.

[H2Otown_WX]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Did not think we'd see (or even need) a Marginal Risk in our area but alas we have it so just enjoy it! Put the snowblowers away, snow shovels, snow map, snow boards...its a new season. Lets get things cooking before May

I doubt we're gonna even see thunder. Like Tip said, we don't do convection in March. Hell, we hardly do it at all lol.

EDIT: You already said this

[H2Otown_WX]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Bigguns undercover of darkness. Wish we there 

No you don't, you sound like someone who's never been to the South.

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Anyone get a look at the Canadian for Monday? Lol wild solution stalls the front forms a low with rain changing to some light accumulating snow for some , low spins near the cape with rain showers everyday next week

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Anyone get a look at the Canadian for Monday? Lol wild solution stalls the front forms a low with rain changing to some light accumulating snow for some 

There’s our late season event. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

There’s our late season event. 

Watch next week 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Anyone get a look at the Canadian for Monday? Lol wild solution stalls the front forms a low with rain changing to some light accumulating snow for some , low spins near the cape with rain showers everyday next week

Reminds me of the old west Atl cut off spring gyres of lore...

Those were common in the 1980s ... sometimes in the 1990s. I haven't seen as many of them in the 2000s to present, though I have seen them modeled at times ...failing to verify.   Probably owning the faster hemisphere.  

Anyway, they used to be a more common 'fixture' in April's actually.  I've seen cirrus backing in from a cut-off retrograding gyre... 60 F with cirrus arriving from the east, and the next day is steady cat paws at 38 to the CT River valley east, yet it's still sunny at ALB.  Many a-spring in the 1980s with ruined weeks because once that set up ..it just whirled endlessly. 

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Watch next week 

Could be quite warm indeed just ahead of the front. 

[CoastalWx]

I am worried that cutoff will ruin the warmth to some extent next week. 

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I am worried that cutoff will ruin the warmth to some extent next week. 

welcome to spring in New England

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

5° AN here after the cold on 3/1-4, but I'd not call it "impressive" - only one day was 10+ AN.  Might get some +15 days with the upcoming rain, however.

GYX has been cautioning about ice jams.  The Sandy jammed briefly in early Dec then the 2" RA cleared it.  Re-jammed later that month, from just upriver from the New Sharon bridge to 1/4 mile upstream from the new bridge in Farmington Falls, about 5 river miles.  Ice is probably being bottom-reduced a bit by river flow after the rain on 3/6.

I’m running +7 for the month.
 

It’s impressive given the context of the teleconnections and MJO; not overall. That was my point. 

[Typhoon Tip]

54, dead calm ultra pure air, under unadulterate blue sky and intense equinoxian sun.

about a perfect 10 on the "nape scale"

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Could be quite warm indeed just ahead of the front. 

Yep . Otherwise dreary. 

[yoda]

@weatherwiz 3rd time ever SPC has issued Day 2 HIGH risk

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I am worried that cutoff will ruin the warmth to some extent next week. 

I'm actually not ...   I mean, yar it's there but the background is too progressive for me to think anything severing in the mid/u/a would have much hope of sticking around.  In fact, it's probably moving right along as it is severing - so it's only really 'quasi' closing off in that sense.

If we wanna see a cut-off butt fucker pattern ... May 2005,   April .. pretty much every April had at least one from 1985 to 1988 ..etc, would be better paradigms.  

The trough next week passing west to east probably prevents that.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm actually not ...   I mean, yar it's there but the background is too progressive for me to think anything severing in the mid/u/a would have much hope of sticking around.  In fact, it's probably moving right along as it is severing - so it's only really 'quasi' closing off in that sense.

If we wanna see a cut-off butt fucker pattern ... May 2005,   April .. pretty much every April had at least one from 1985 to 1988 ..etc, would be better paradigms.  

The trough next week passing west to east probably prevents that.

I don't mean days of rain, but it could prolong erly flow and keep the warmth at bay until the front nears Thursday. 

[CoastalWx]

Seeing more subtle signs of that. 

[weatherwiz]

15 minutes ago, yoda said:

@weatherwiz 3rd time ever SPC has issued Day 2 HIGH risk

Thought we may see a high risk 

[Damage In Tolland]

Sounds like a coastal issue mainly 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Thought we may see a high risk 

destructive day ahead

[Cyclone-68]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

A new fail season has begun.

At least with this one we already know not to set expectations too high 

[tamarack]

39 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’m running +7 for the month.
 

It’s impressive given the context of the teleconnections and MJO; not overall. That was my point. 

That would be impressive.  I'm at +2 but that's using my personal averages which began in May of 1998.  If I'd had 1991-2020 norms at my site, the departure likely would've been +3 or +4.  Nowhere near +7.  Of course, we still have 12" on our lawn and 12-18" in the hardwood stands.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

destructive day ahead

About as intense of wording as you'll see with this much lead time. Perhaps the scariest part of these next two days is great significant tornado is evening into overnight period when you get the additional ramp up of the LLJ. Sometimes you'll end up seeing potential lessened because of storm mode (quickly becoming linear) but the southern extent of the whole risk area is really primed for numerous discrete supercells based on wind profiles.