March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Still holding out hope for a late winter/early spring miracle before I put a final grade on the winter.

Well, you have more Hope than I do…but it’s certainly not impossible as we’ve seen many times. But after returning from my trip sledding yesterday..my winter desire has been satisfied. So I’m ready for nice weather now.  But if a late season monster popped up..I’d be interested for sure.  But I’m not looking for it at all. 

[kdxken]

42 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I mean, it got to 65. I predicted 68 but the southerly wind held the temp at 64 for hours.

Not 70

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It doesn’t look wet at all . Sunday is like .50 then dry again 

This is after a wet 6 to 10 day. No Stein in sight. 

 

[Snowedin]

Yep, another beauty out there for sure. Sat outside for a solid hour on the deck and could really feel the increasing power of the sun all over. It felt incredible after months of  practical hibernation. The backyard is a total swamp right now but I’ll take every ounce of it if it leads to more days like this! 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Snowedin said:

Yep, another beauty out there for sure. Sat outside for a solid hour on the deck and could really feel the increasing power of the sun all over. It felt incredible after months of  practical hibernation. The backyard is a total swamp right now but I’ll take every ounce of it if it leads to more days like this! 

Hopefully many more! Great night outside on the patio at 10p:15 pm in March. Even hear signs of life in the local marsh 

[kdxken]

9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It doesn’t look wet at all . Sunday is like .50 then dry again 

If you say so. 

 

[qg_omega]

We warm and stein recap

https://www.noaa.gov/news/despite-arctic-air-outbreaks-us-had-warm-dry-winter-on-average?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR29R-rZISSO7vMqC8RAuofjxCNHrGDvPEvJTC8Mu3PEsg3L0Ay4NA1KPhk_aem_IrEzjr86nWbDJ4BHLvbuTg

[qg_omega]

It’s so easy to record warm and so hard to record cold

[Typhoon Tip]

Not so sure we are going to just blossom out of this sneaky cold under cut in time for such a balmy Saturday. 

Looking at the behavior of the sfc PP in the model blended cinema ...it's trying really hard to dam.  That may mean in reality it's even more so in the tougher to resolve BL at the bottom.  Could be calm or even a light ENE drift underneath these kind of clouds as the warm surge at larger synoptic scales is running over top .. Friday is definitely not in time, but it may take more of Saturday for a quasi warm front to liberate us.

[Typhoon Tip]

p.s. ... I hope we actually do erode out by 12z on Saturday, for the record.  haha

[H2Otown_WX]

12 hours ago, kdxken said:

Not 70

Ok? I wouldn't qualify 65 as "not even close" to 70 but, whatever

[Typhoon Tip]

Hope everyone's enjoying your cold air today ...

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Ok? I wouldn't qualify 65 as "not even close" to 70 but, whatever

He beer 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not so sure we are going to just blossom out of this sneaky cold under cut in time for such a balmy Saturday. 

Looking at the behavior of the sfc PP in the model blended cinema ...it's trying really hard to dam.  That may mean in reality it's even more so in the tougher to resolve BL at the bottom.  Could be calm or even a light ENE drift underneath these kind of clouds as the warm surge at larger synoptic scales is running over top .. Friday is definitely not in time, but it may take more of Saturday for a quasi warm front to liberate us.

What in god's name is that awful, depressing and brutal looking building that looks like a parking garage that was dropped on it's side from space aliens?

[H2Otown_WX]

06z GFS looks awfully ...concerning

[Cold Miser]

...good riddance, winter 24/25.  You can go right in the trash can next to winters 23/24 & 22/23.  

Thanks for nothing.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

06z GFS looks awfully ...concerning

spring warm sector types often fail to produce along the trailing b-clinic zone/cold frontal aspect because they are theta-e challenged.

It's not unusual for warm air masses, particularly prior to continental green-up, to be low DP transport.  In 1998, March 29, 30 and 31, we made 89, 91, 90 up at the UML weather lab in the heart of Merrimack Valley, Lowell.  But the DPs was like 30 F.

The models are trying though.  The Euro's RH field shows a 925 mb plume of >70% over the NJ/Try State state region at 18z Saturday, which is probably some SE Coastal/Atl moisture being entrained and a nose of theta-e modeled up the coast.  Whether that happens in reality, we'll see.

Anyway, if you took this synoptic and transported it to early June, you'd probably get a better convective production and heavier rains associated with that coherent c-front advancing toward the coast.   

Also, keep in mind, the model layout for QPF will also look 'sharp' like that in regimes were the QPF is convectively driven, anyway.  It's not the same as strataform rain production, with swaths of mulit-inch you might see on on the N slope of a stationary boundary and/or coastal type systems..

 

[Cyclone-68]

Man this sucks. We must be the only part of the country with nothing going on weather wise in the last couple of years. 

[Layman]

22 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

...good riddance, winter 24/25.  You can go right in the trash can next to winters 23/24 & 22/23.  

Thanks for nothing.

 

 

Did you measure the depth?

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Man this sucks. We must be the only part of the country with nothing going on weather wise in the last couple of years. 

Amen.

altho ... i've been wondering if we are somewhat gas lit by media's aggrandizing. Maybe when stuff is happening everywhere in the world, as though we are being left out ... but in reality, there's an oversell of disaster/dystopian drama. 

LOL.   Then I look at some disheartening imagery and cinemas of walls of fire ... or 48" of snow in 12 hours ... or 101 F March heat waves in lower Eurasia ... or whatever and nah.   I do think there is something to it where we are seeing a mollified profile history, probably because of limitations that are geologically built in. 

Like, heat ... we can get damn hot.  But only damn hot.  We can't get the 109 like it was recently at Hetahrow AP in London, or the 120 like it was in lower B.C. Canada, Washington and Oregon like it was in 2021.  We just really can't geophysically generate those temperatures.   Maybe some crazy year we'll get the 103 in frequency... We can make headlines where say... 102 occurs at Logan 13 times the same summer.   if that would ever happen that's our "109"  ?   something like that.  

Or take wind...  being east of the elevations of 2K, the elevation drops out, so air density rises as you head east of roughly western CT to Manchester NH to Fryeburg ME type of axis... That alone may be why all our "omg we're all gonna die" wind forecasts end up manageable.   It's no wonder why when we do get a wind explosion, they are over the SE coastal plain, in fall, when the near by SSTs are warm and this hyper mixes momentum from llv jet fields more readily down to the surface there.     

Then there's convection.  We've had our 1953's and 2010 tors... but those are fleetingly rare.  Seattle Washington probably doesn't want to hear our complaints when it comes to convection, but regionally relativity aside ... we all know where we stand when it comes to baseball hail and regular wall cloud filmography.  Also, limited by geomorphology and proximity to colder ocean in the summer.  There's also a non-linear wave function built in where convection that has any chance in the first place, will "dive" S early as part of the geo limitation, and this effectively robs us... It's a complicating model of reasons to go less.   So the return rate on big deal scenarios isn't worth the wait.  

Really, our profile is best painted through big bomb nor'easters.   That's been our bread and butter since the dawn of awareness.  Unfortunately, part of the awareness, very recently in geological time, is an unsettling emergent reality of lessening bread and butter ... We definitely feel hungry.

This part of the world is probably circumstantially going to be a kind of protected enclave while the rage of climate change continues to deny us our way to glory while incinerating the rest of the world with giant events.   Invest in realestate I guess, because the climate refugees are going to start coming in waves.   haha

[DavisStraight]

25 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Man this sucks. We must be the only part of the country with nothing going on weather wise in the last couple of years. 

We're way overdue for something.

[mreaves]

46 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

What in god's name is that awful, depressing and brutal looking building that looks like a parking garage that was dropped on it's side from space aliens?

The centerpiece for the film The Brutalist?

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

What in god's name is that awful, depressing and brutal looking building that looks like a parking garage that was dropped on it's side from space aliens?

yeah, I don't what or where that is...

who cares - the point was the sky/cloud type.

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

We're way overdue for something.

Yes sir…but be careful what you wish for as the saying goes.  When it snaps…it could be ugly.  

[tamarack]

54 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Man this sucks. We must be the only part of the country with nothing going on weather wise in the last couple of years. 

Last winter had the storms.  The 3 events, 12/18, 1/10 and 1/13 were far more powerful than anything that has come our way this winter.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He beer 

43 here making a run at 50.

[dendrite]

32.8/11

High will be the 43 at midnight. 

[DavisStraight]

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

43 here making a run at 50.

Same here, I think colder tomorrow before a warmup.

[Chrisrotary12]

18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Absolutely zero mud season this year. Went from pack to dead , dry ground / grass. Stein fall and winter and windy conditions were superb for a quick get out on lawn season 

Hit a bucket of golf balls at range yesterday and the ground wasn’t soggy at all. A tiny bit wet, but I would call it mud at all. Glorious. 

[Cyclone-68]

45 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Last winter had the storms.  The 3 events, 12/18, 1/10 and 1/13 were far more powerful than anything that has come our way this winter.

 Not for us poor saps in eastern NE lol. Haven’t had over 5 inches of snow in almost three years which is almost unprecedented for us.. The 80’s were lean too as I recall though