March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

How many wheelies has the Pope done already?

he is busy doing donuts in the snowpack at @tunafish's yard

[Cold Miser]

59 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS came south a bit for Wednesday night.. hoping for a little more 

 

[weatherwiz]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The initialization will contain the present information.  Sure.   

Time is the variable there...   out in time, the physics may have some error where is slowing field variable timings, perhaps an emergent property; a consequence of less than very finite scaled/resolution in the interactivity.  

Supposition on that cause ... and, they are not slow (or as much) per se in the first 72 to 96 hrs  ... it's endemic to the longer range.  Curvature in the flow tends to end up less curved, in lieu of 'stretching' in the west to east direction, along with quickening pace of both base-line geostrophic velocities, and the wave propagation speeds.  

One has to consider all this in a nuanced way.  Tendency gets embedded in the day-to-day, and the problem with tendency is that there may or may not be a very coherent manifesting of whatever it is you're looking for at any given point in time/interval on the model illustrations.   But given time ... the tendency will reveal more so in aggregate if subtle corrections.  Then at other times, it just straight is obvious.  This recent thing with the Mar 9/10 blizzard the GFS had... very good example of all this really. 

 

I've always wondered too, is it at all possible that increasing model resolution may actually have some negative impact on model performance moving forward in-time? I could see where I am wrong in this because the equations (deltas in change in wind/direction over time, temperature, pressure, density, etc/) usually only deal with certain scales and I'm sure there are equations built in to perhaps assist with this but I have to wonder if sometimes the increased resolution adds some sort of negative feedback within the extended range. 

[FXWX]

57 degrees... First afternoon on the patio enjoying the view!

[ineedsnow]

Euro is close to.a inch.. it would be nice to cover the spots that get the sun all day one more time.. still a good amount in some spots..

[dendrite]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

it would be nice to cover the spots that get the sun all day one more time.. 

No. No it wouldn’t. 

[dendrite]

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A little jealous.  Looking forward to tomorrow.

[butterfish55]

60s in SEMA....love it

[Torch Tiger]

Nice to see that parade of cutters on the 12z gfs!  Hope that holds

[jbenedet]

58/28.

Love it.

[metagraphica]

Fantastic! Warm and dry Spring day.  61/22.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

64

[Typhoon Tip]

60 here ... warmest day time temp for this location since... I dunno November maybe -

MAV did better than MET

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

58/28.

Love it.

Poppin’ em ??

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro is close to.a inch.. it would be nice to cover the spots that get the sun all day one more time.. still a good amount in some spots..

Let it go..the writing is on the wall. It's ovah

[Typhoon Tip]

Something tells me Ineedsnow would say that if it were July 4th weekend with another of those 100 year 40 F coastals like 2020

 

[Typhoon Tip]

makes my point really ... Last of the -EPOness waned out last week, so onward we got this recent final cold departure and now we're out.

Basically, we are becoming more and more reliant on direct cold loading because otherwise our "polar air mass rot rate" is a shorter recovery window, which is definitely going to be the case in March anyway.

Again, the catch-22 there is that if there is a cold direct source, the pattern is compressed ...which limits storm production.   Attribution giving us more inches than snow ...

[CT Valley Snowman]

62.  Amazing day out there.  

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, butterfish55 said:

60s in SEMA....love it

I hit 60 for a high, nice day, wind finally died.

[Torch Tiger]

t's very very dry with little melt/runoff of snow today.  Stein is really hitting hard out there.  Also from his Twitter, Stein seems to be endorsing #IkonPass now!

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Let it go..the writing is on the wall. It's ovah

Over but we take what we can get..

There could be a some very minor snow accumulations...mainly across
the interior high terrain of MA where temps will be a bit colder and
there is better forcing. Still only looking at a coating to inch of
snow possible.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Something tells me Ineedsnow would say that if it were July 4th weekend with another of those 100 year 40 F coastals like 2020

 

That would be perfect!

[CoastalWx]

62

[Damage In Tolland]

Torch!!!

[Damage In Tolland]

How many were taken ?

https://x.com/vermonsterwx/status/1899207087353385095?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How many were taken ?

https://x.com/vermonsterwx/status/1899207087353385095?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I love snow but cannot empathize with his plight.

It’s glorious outside.  Hoodie walking the dog, 42F and sun feels so warm.

Pack started the day at 21” after last night’s 6”.  Now the trees are snow free, birds chirping, like a different season all the sudden.

[tunafish]

My solar production really took off today with full sun and especially that extra hour of daylight. 

[Torch Tiger]

I vividly remember suffering from snow/winter withdrawrals when I was younger, always so sad to see snow go and Spring arriving.  Now it's the total opposite, nothing is better than those first sun soaked glorious Spring beauts like today and have no use for the past 3 months of wx. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I love snow but cannot empathize with his plight.

It’s glorious outside.  Hoodie walking the dog, 42F and sun feels so warm.

Pack started the day at 21” after last night’s 6”.  Now the trees are snow free, birds chirping, like a different season all the sudden.

Today was fantastic. Near 60, no wind , mostly sunny, shorts on. Everything waking up . Warm spring is here