March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[CoastalWx]

Man I haven’t seen such a flaccid ending to winter in a long time. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man I haven’t seen such a flaccid ending to winter in a long time. 

Ha .. I was just remarking that same sentiment to my self last hour.   weird - 

It's like the guest of honor slipped away from the party while everyone was carrying on and then looking around, hey, what happened to Joe.

[Typhoon Tip]

Impressive 1 hour recovery here this morning...  I love these fast diurnal delta days.  It was 28 here at dawn, and it's 42 now spanning ~ 1.5 hours. 

28 to 45 at near-by FIT

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah what a rebound. Already 40s in ASH

[Typhoon Tip]

Does anyone remember that big historic blizzard the GFS had for yesterday and today about a week ago ?  

heh.   28 to 47 in ~ 2 hrs here, matches the NWS sites too so it's not just an artifact of home siting, either.

[weatherwiz]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Does anyone remember that big historic blizzard the GFS had for yesterday and today about a week ago ?  

heh.   28 to 47 in ~ 2 hrs here, matches the NWS sites too so it's not just an artifact of home siting, either.

The one I was interested in for like 20 minutes and thought "we had a chance  

I'll take this though...its time to move on from winter

[dendrite]

41.8° already. LFG

[dendrite]

Not bad for 14z on 3/10 with sun

[CoastalWx]

How many wheelies has the Pope done already?

[512high]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How many wheelies has the Pope done already?

Vatican said bed rest! Pope not listening!

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How many wheelies has the Pope done already?

Pope(A) wheelie?? 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pope(A) wheelie?? 

Like in the beginning of the DMX rough ryders anthem song. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Like in the beginning of the DMX rough ryders anthem song. 

Pope A Wheelie!

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You do realize he’s a PWM observer. 

And Tuna's lawn might hold snow a bit longer than the downtown sidewalks of PWM.  

Man I haven’t seen such a flaccid ending to winter in a long time. 

I'll nominate 2021 - March total a slushy 0.1" followed by the rare April failing to reach 70.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The one I was interested in for like 20 minutes and thought "we had a chance  

I'll take this though...its time to move on from winter

Oh I had that sentiment ( bold ) well before that silly model run.   GFS actually even tried to sell that for consecutive runs, too ... three cycles I think maybe.   Even the ensemble mean had a 992 mb low passing through the climate key slot of jaggov model porn during that days' worth of model runs.   None of the other guidance of course ... and we knew...  Save for anyone that hides their hope and emotional investment behind the cozy euphemism, 'we just don't know'

In a fairer objective take, I score this last winter with a passing grade purely because it was cold and there was snow on the ground for like 9 weeks or something.  It may have only been 4 or 5"  ( think 11 at greatest), but that pack resistance was amazing considering how gossamer fragile a 4 and half inch layer is..   It became like getting a 100 on the mid term exam while doing shitting otherwise.  The teacher has to give the kid a C, though reluctantly.    BUT, that reluctance is not going to protract said teachers dreams and desires to keep teaching the class.   This one was ready for fuggin summer vacation before the final, ...a final that as Scott and I were noting earlier, seems to almost not even be happening.   It's like the class and the teacher just up and left the room ... of course leaving one or two autistic types behind that don't really 'get it'   haha

Yeah, this period after this last most recent cold snap has looked like more seasonal oscillations of cold and not as knifed.  The warm periods will probably resume the background climate signal with the usual decimals or whole degree having to be added thereafter and exceeding over guidance etc.  

When does grass green and forsythias bud...  That may be happening S already not sure.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah Brian ...  they're attempting to place that ad shit in lower priority sub forums hoping probably not to be detected right away.  The climate one got hit by the Temu assault team

[jbenedet]

50/28 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

This is the first day where diurnal heating presses the home site temperatures higher than the NWS sites. 

The latter is - in theory ... - more precise.   But fwiw 51 to 53 at all those within a couple clicks of my location, while 50 at FIT  

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Man, “decent” and “respectable” for wintery vibe is the best you can come up with, lol. It hadn’t rained in 2 +- months, no thaws, BN temps and number 6 out of the last 70 years in terms of snowfall with refreshes every 2-3 days. Total snowfall somewhere between 300-400” in the northern greens with more than half of March to go. I’d go with outstanding winter for northern Vermont.


.

 High expectations.  Trying not to let the past 4-5 winters cloud judgement.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh I had that sentiment ( bold ) well before that silly model run.   GFS actually event tried to sell that for consecutive runs, too ... three cycles I think maybe.   Even the ensemble mean had a 992 mb low passing through the climate key slot of jaggov model porn during that days' worth of model runs.   None of the other guidance of course ... and we knew...  Save for anyone that hides their hope and emotional investment behind the cozy euphemism, 'we just don't know'

In a fairer objective take, I score this last winter with a passing grade purely because it was cold and there was snow on the ground for like 9 weeks or something.  It may have only been 4 or 5"  ( think 11 at greatest), but that pack resistance was amazing considering how gossamer fragile it only 4 and half is..   It became like getting a 100 on the mid term exam while doing shitting otherwise.  The teacher has to give the kid a C, though reluctantly.    BUT, that reluctance is not going to protract said teachers dreams and desires to keep teaching the class.   This one was ready for fuggin summer vacation before the final, ...a final that as Scott and I were noting earlier, seems to almost not even be happening.   It's like the class and the teacher just up and left the room ... of course leaving one or two autistic types behind that don't really 'get it'   haha

Yeah, this period after this last most recent cold snap has looked like more seasonal oscillations of cold and not as knifed.  The warm periods will probably resume the background climate signal with the usual decimals or whole degree over guidance.   When does grass green and forsythias bud...  That may be happening S already not sure.

With alot of the recent changes this may not be as feasible anymore, however, I wonder if there was alot of work/research going into the GFS in the extended range and what is causing it to struggle mightily with the northern stream and why there is a tendency towards the evolution of snow storms within the Northeast. I'm sure there had to be because this is how upgrades are performed but this tendency is often enough there must be something within its physics...but this goes welllll beyond the ability of my brain comprehension. 

Anyways...its not good. Its not good for the field and its not good for those involved in forecasting professionally. There were the last storm we got and someone I work with said, "Weather is always changing, look at this storm we just got. My wife a few weeks ago saw something where we we were supposed to get 30" and look, we got like 8". I know exactly what he was talking about...it was the one storm where the asshole snow maps were getting tossed around all over because they were showing 20-30 inches over a huge chunk of the region. But there is just so much hype generated in the 6-10+ day time frame it's absolutely ridiculous. 

It really drives me to the point to where sometimes this isn't fun anymore, there is no more science its just pure hyped garbage. Just like when you read content posted...and from meteorologists, "This isn't a forecast and I'm not saying this is happening but a possible solution" captioned above something clearly meant to drive hype. WHAT POINT IS THERE POSTING SOMETHING LIKE THAT? There is none outside of generating clicks, likes, and followers...that is it. But the field is getting watered down by pure senseless garbage. 

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

With alot of the recent changes this may not be as feasible anymore, however, I wonder if there was alot of work/research going into the GFS in the extended range and what is causing it to struggle mightily with the northern stream and why there is a tendency towards the evolution of snow storms within the Northeast. I'm sure there had to be because this is how upgrades are performed but this tendency is often enough there must be something within its physics...but this goes welllll beyond the ability of my brain comprehension. 

Anyways...its not good. Its not good for the field and its not good for those involved in forecasting professionally. There were the last storm we got and someone I work with said, "Weather is always changing, look at this storm we just got. My wife a few weeks ago saw something where we we were supposed to get 30" and look, we got like 8". I know exactly what he was talking about...it was the one storm where the asshole snow maps were getting tossed around all over because they were showing 20-30 inches over a huge chunk of the region. But there is just so much hype generated in the 6-10+ day time frame it's absolutely ridiculous. 

It really drives me to the point to where sometimes this isn't fun anymore, there is no more science its just pure hyped garbage. Just like when you read content posted...and from meteorologists, "This isn't a forecast and I'm not saying this is happening but a possible solution" captioned above something clearly meant to drive hype. WHAT POINT IS THERE POSTING SOMETHING LIKE THAT? There is none outside of generating clicks, likes, and followers...that is it. But the field is getting watered down by pure senseless garbage. 

Well, it's the peril of the perception crisis that came about during this socio-technological experiment of recent Humanity. Just like everything else that is "real" in this age of alternates and miss-information, they are subsuming objective truth.  Now ... every season has a duality.  Jesus, I feel like Morpheus speaking to Neo in the Matrix, there is the real, vs the fantasies and paragons created by media.  And by " media" we mean everything that is audience oriented.  Not just FOX, CNN ...ABC and NBC...or whatever.   All media and these, combined.

The two seasons happen concurrently ... there is winter, and the duality with a perception of winter.  Oh, once in a blue moon they may come to a nexus and share a sense of rightfulness.  But that requires a 944 mb stalled 60" mortality blizzard parked on  the eastern tip of Long Island.  Because this latter aspect happens 'so often'      most of the time, the illusory winter seems to be preferential.   haha

Seriously, there is a troubling problem with information at this latter end of the Information Era of Humanity - the current state distinction.  Weather access/modeling and cinema just being available to any yahoo without real or proven, or sustaining rank ... you're not going to get sensibility.   20-30"  failures are more common. 

Meanwhile, no officiated source ( we hope ...) that is of a proven rank and sophistication ever said anything like that.   It's not just media - as machinery... It's a humanity crisis of information. 

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah Brian ...  they're attempting to place that ad shit in lower priority sub forums hoping probably not to be detected right away.  The climate one got hit by the Temu assault team

I unleashed the T-800 on him. 

[Typhoon Tip]

heh, actually 54 at FIT now...  maybe this 55 is legit.  

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well, it's the peril of the perception crisis that came about during the socio-technological experiment of recent Humanity. Just like everything else that is "real" in this age of alternates and miss-information, they are subsuming objective truth.  Now ... every season has a duality.  Jesus, I feel like Morpheus speaking to Neo in the Matrix, there is the real, vs these paragons created by media. 

They happen concurrently ... a winter and a perception of winter that is created.  Oh, once in a blue moon they may come to a nexus and share a sense of rightfulness.  But that requires a 944 mb stalled 60" mortality blizzard parked on  the eastern tip of Long Island.  Because this latter aspect happens 'so often'      most of the time, the illusory winter seems to be preferential.   haha

Seriously, there is a troubling problem with information at this latter end of the Information Era of Humanity - the current state distinction.  Weather access/modeling and cinema just being available to any yahoo without real or proven, or sustaining rank ...this is what you get.   20-30"  failures. 

Meanwhile, no officiated source ( we hope ...) that is of a proven rank and sophistication ever said anything like that.   It's not just media - as machinery... It's a humanity crisis of information. 

Well said. 

And now that we are moving into Spring we're going to see the hype train transition over the the severe track. Obviously it will go unnoticed with our region but over the next 2-3 months it will be nothing but Supercell Composite/Significant Tornado Parameter charts circulating all over social media and hyping every trough ejecting into the southern Plains as the next 5/3/99 or April 2011. 

Back to the research side of things, if I get time this summer I really want to dig into the last 3-4 winters and do a more in-depth comparison to previous winters, winters which produced and winters which didn't. I know this research exists out there and there are people who are already well advanced in this topic already, but what I really want to focus on are pattern transitions and pattern evolutions. This is at least the 3rd winter in a row where we've been tantalized by "good looks" in the extended range with little return. Yes, good looks doesn't guarantee anything but that answer just doesn't suffice with me. We get too caught up in just static plots...we can look at monthly 500mb height anomalies in the Arctic domain for some of the most negative NAO January's on record and make some conclusions...but the reality is, its not the averaged pattern or the averaged anomalies which count, its how you transitioned to that point. 

If you look at the last several years (maybe not so much this year) but all these "good looks" that developed, those favorable patterns occurred on the back end of cutters or back end of weather systems moving off the East Coast and then its a quick transition to not so favorable patterns ahead of the next system...that isn't going to cut it. 

I know there are statistics which correlate teleconnection phases, ENSO, etc. to temperatures, precipitation, and snow but none of those correlations are strikingly high. I have to think through the means of additional research and critical thinking, we can probably increase forecasting accuracy, even if there is little improvement in model skill in the medium range.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well said. 

And now that we are moving into Spring we're going to see the hype train transition over the the severe track. Obviously it will go unnoticed with our region but over the next 2-3 months it will be nothing but Supercell Composite/Significant Tornado Parameter charts circulating all over social media and hyping every trough ejecting into the southern Plains as the next 5/3/99 or April 2011. 

Back to the research side of things, if I get time this summer I really want to dig into the last 3-4 winters and do a more in-depth comparison to previous winters, winters which produced and winters which didn't. I know this research exists out there and there are people who are already well advanced in this topic already, but what I really want to focus on are pattern transitions and pattern evolutions. This is at least the 3rd winter in a row where we've been tantalized by "good looks" in the extended range with little return. Yes, good looks doesn't guarantee anything but that answer just doesn't suffice with me. We get too caught up in just static plots...we can look at monthly 500mb height anomalies in the Arctic domain for some of the most negative NAO January's on record and make some conclusions...but the reality is, its not the averaged pattern or the averaged anomalies which count, its how you transitioned to that point. 

If you look at the last several years (maybe not so much this year) but all these "good looks" that developed, those favorable patterns occurred on the back end of cutters or back end of weather systems moving off the East Coast and then its a quick transition to not so favorable patterns ahead of the next system...that isn't going to cut it. 

I know there are statistics which correlate teleconnection phases, ENSO, etc. to temperatures, precipitation, and snow but none of those correlations are strikingly high. I have to think through the means of additional research and critical thinking, we can probably increase forecasting accuracy, even if there is little improvement in model skill in the medium range.

Oh ..I'm all but convinced I know what/where the origination of the problem is:  perception yet again ... but this is case it is the "miss"guidance of guidance that is causing it.

I would consider speeding up as a d(modulation) as causal.    The models "see" something in the physical temporal horizon ( D10 say ..or even out around 13), *HOWEVER* they are seeing a timing of interacting massfields that is being assessed slower than it really will be when said time frame arrives into nearer terms.    Consequence of that too-slow error, they necessarily speed up ... the big event goes with it or gets changed..etc.  

This has been a leitmotif actually going back many winters.  I've been opining this observations or the like going back ... 2008 even.  It's just getting more egregious in recency.   The last 5 years in particular, the hemisphere is setting air-land speed records for intercontinental flights on W--> E trajectories, while the models are trying to sell slow moving bombs...  The latter will likely not survive the speeding up the models will have to do.  Even if it's only speeding up a little... ?  some sort of acceleration is required the majority of eval periods, and these events get negatively interfered by it.

[ineedsnow]

GFS came south a bit for Wednesday night.. hoping for a little more 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully it goes back north.

[Layman]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This has been a leitmotif actually going back many winters.  I've been opining this observations or the like going back ... 2008 even.  It's just getting more egregious in recency.   The last 5 years in particular, the hemisphere is setting air-land speed records for intercontinental flights on W--> E trajectories, while the models are trying to sell slow moving bombs...  The latter will likely not survive the speeding up the models will have to do.  Even if it's only speeding up a little... ?  some sort of acceleration is required the majority of eval periods, and these events get negatively interfered by it.

Am I incorrect in thinking that the models take inputs from sensors reading actual weather stats across the hemisphere?  If they do read actual data, wouldn't they be sampling the record West to East speeds?  If so, I'm confused as to why the models would be slowing systems down for the past 15ish years.  I could see a programming issue, but it seems that this data would scream for some sort of adjustment or at the very least, make an attempt to assimilate it better in the outputs.   

[ineedsnow]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully it goes back north.

CMC is south but light on qpf

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, Layman said:

Am I incorrect in thinking that the models take inputs from sensors reading actual weather stats across the hemisphere?  If they do read actual data, wouldn't they be sampling the record West to East speeds?  If so, I'm confused as to why the models would be slowing systems down for the past 15ish years.  I could see a programming issue, but it seems that this data would scream for some sort of adjustment or at the very least, make an attempt to assimilate it better in the outputs.   

The initialization will contain the present information.  Sure.   

Time is the variable there...   out in time, the physics may have some error where is slowing field variable timings, perhaps an emergent property; a consequence of less than very finite scaled/resolution in the interactivity.  

Supposition on that cause ... and, they are not slow (or as much) per se in the first 72 to 96 hrs  ... it's endemic to the longer range.  Curvature in the flow tends to end up less curved, in lieu of 'stretching' in the west to east direction, along with quickening pace of both base-line geostrophic velocities, and the wave propagation speeds.  

One has to consider all this in a nuanced way.  Tendency gets embedded in the day-to-day, and the problem with tendency is that there may or may not be a very coherent manifesting of whatever it is you're looking for at any given point in time/interval on the model illustrations.   But given time ... the tendency will reveal more so in aggregate if subtle corrections.  Then at other times, it just straight is obvious.  This recent thing with the Mar 9/10 blizzard the GFS had... very good example of all this really.