March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[Spanks45]

Stratus had 1.95" in it this morning, 1.85" in the Davis.....good soaker and hopefully the start of knocking back the drought

52° currently, feels/smells/sounds like early spring should

[BrianW]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Stratus had 1.95" in it this morning, 1.85" in the Davis.....good soaker and hopefully the start of knocking back the drought

52° currently, feels/smells/sounds like early spring should

Lots of stuff sprouting in the beds here and the lawn is really greening up.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Been a while since I have felt the humidity like this.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, 512high said:

.72" total unless the stuff from the west coming adds more. Overnight stayed @ 51F.

 

Still snow on the ground along with piles, and dog shit lol

 

There is way too much snow left. 

[Torch Tiger]

I'm just glad there is no arctic cold in sight. A little snow/slush is fine if it happens 

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, tunafish said:

Nope.

Funny saying that while you're cooked Thursday morning at 47/45. Warmest temps of the period right now.

Thursday isn't over guy. 

If you want I can draw a line for you, if it isn't clear enough for just north of PWM, DAW, MHT.

On track unless you're staring at the piles.

 

[UnitedWx]

59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another nice spring enroute. We’ve had a bunch recently 

Suits me! The RAM needs a serious detail! Just turned 200K so things have been building up 

[weatherwiz]

I know tomorrow is going to be windy but holy wow bufkit gone wild  has to be overdone 

[dryslot]

1.18" here, Pack took a hit but holds on.

[Lava Rock]

Fog city. 47F

[jbenedet]

50/49. 

HRRR saying eastern sections flirt with 60.

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I know tomorrow is going to be windy but holy wow bufkit gone wild  has to be overdone 

Not trying to sell Kevin's roof ending up on Boston Common, but ... keep in mind, the March sun is very powerful compared to even Feb, and getting stronger by non-negligible %'s per day as we approach the Equinox.   

The boundary layer will bump ...  Whether this is 'why' BUFKIT may appear so well-mixed or not, there is an environmental argument that convective overturning and BL expansion being proficient -   just because it may be an annoyingly cold day, doesn't mean these mechanics are not in play. 

This is just an added aspect to concern.  It's not the same CAA as it is on Jan 6 when the sun is shining from a cool azimuth.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not trying to sell Kevin's roof ending up on Boston Common, but ... keep in mind, the March sun is very powerful compared to even Feb, and getting stronger by non-negligible %'s per day as we approach the Equinox.   

The boundary layer will bump ...  Whether this is 'why' BUFKIT may appear so well-mixed or not, there is an environmental argument that convective overturning and BL expansion being proficient -   just because it may be an annoyingly cold day, doesn't mean these mechanics are not in play. 

This is just an added aspect to concern.  It's not the same CAA as it is on Jan 6 when the sun is shining from a cool azimuth

It is noteworthy seeing the NAM/GFS so well-mixed but that degree of mixing almost seems overstated here...I mean it has us mixing a good 5-6-7K. I can certainly buy 5K but upwards of 7K...seems a bit overstated for our region, no? Difficult to even do that during the summer.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

It is noteworthy seeing the NAM/GFS so well-mixed but that degree of mixing almost seems overstated here...I mean it has us mixing a good 5-6-7K. I can certainly buy 5K but upwards of 7K...seems a bit overstated for our region, no? Difficult to even do that during the summer.

it may be that there are two disparate things going on ...

Those models you mention may be over selling the mixing.    But the March sun and bigger gusts aspect is real physics.  

It's just not clear if these models are picking up on that, or if they are just wild for some other reason.  

The sun's aspect may not account for the amount of overturning in the models, in other words.

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it may be that there are two disparate things going on ...

Those models you mention may be over selling the mixing.    But the March sun and bigger gusts aspect is real physics.  

It's just not clear if these models are picking up on that, or if they are just wild for some other reason.  

The sun's aspect may not account for the amount of overturning in the models, in other words.

My thinking is the models are overmixing. We're certainly going to mix and have steep lapse rates, but winds at 850mb aren't anything eye popping. What's happening is with the over-mixing, that is tapping into the base of the 700 jet so we're seeing some big numbers atop the mixed layer. But with this said, I think we see widespread 35-45 mph gusts and upwards of 50 for higher elevations but this 50-60+ potential from bufkit I think is overdone. 

[CoastalWx]

Should be widespread 45-55 with G to 60 in a lot of areas. Good mixing with bare ground in many areas. 

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully the ice castles aren’t torched. 

Are you going up to see them?  
Every year I say I'm going and then I don't.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

1.18" here, Pack took a hit but holds on.

1.21" here, pack drops from 19" to 16", maybe 15 by day's end but that stuff has a lot of SWE.  Highest reports are from downriver, not the mountains, though data from uphill is sketchy.  I highly doubt that the ice will move much on the Sandy.

[dryslot]

Just now, tamarack said:

1.21" here, pack drops from 19" to 16", maybe 15 by day's end but that stuff has a lot of SWE.  Highest reports are from downriver, not the mountains, though data from uphill is sketchy.  I highly doubt that the ice will move much on the Sandy.

Looking at some web cams and from camp, They took a hit but still has a solid snow pack, Suppose to cool overnight into tomorrow, I'm heading up this afternoon, Either i'll ride tomorrow depending on conditions or i'm hauling the trailer back tomorrow instead of Saturday, Either way, This was the last weekend for me whether it rained or snowed.

[Torch Tiger]

54 in Allenstown NH. Torch!!

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be widespread 45-55 with G to 60 in a lot of areas. Good mixing with bare ground in many areas. 

You can envision a lot of white pine snapping tomorrow regionally. 

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Are you going up to see them?  
Every year I say I'm going and then I don't.

Maybe you go together…An Ice castleback weekend ?

[jbenedet]

56/50. Sun ain't even out yet.

[CoastalWx]

32 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Are you going up to see them?  
Every year I say I'm going and then I don't.

Yeah I want to...but don't want to spend the money if it's a melting mess.

[powderfreak]

45 minutes ago, tamarack said:

1.21" here, pack drops from 19" to 16", maybe 15 by day's end but that stuff has a lot of SWE.  Highest reports are from downriver, not the mountains, though data from uphill is sketchy.  I highly doubt that the ice will move much on the Sandy.

I was surprised with 0.80” of rain our pack in town only went from 21” to 19” as of this morning’s obs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can envision a lot of burly white men snapping one of on my back tomorrow. 

Nookie cookie on the weekend?

[Typhoon Tip]

Man that is an ugly sfc evolution next week from the 12z op GFS.  Bring back the 00z please ...

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You I can envision fantasize a lot of white men pine snapping tomorrow regionally. 

yeah yeah, we know -

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I was surprised with 0.80” of rain our pack in town only went from 21” to 19” as of this morning’s obs.

Hopefully just getting ready to wash Jay Peak into the St Lawrence. 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully just getting ready to wash Jay Peak into the St Lawrence. 

We had damage last night on the hill from water.  That pack is deep and cold but the streams and drainages need to go somewhere… just sometimes not in their channels.