Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,199
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

March DISCO/OBS: Please End It


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

  On 3/6/2025 at 1:57 PM, Spanks45 said:

Stratus had 1.95" in it this morning, 1.85" in the Davis.....good soaker and hopefully the start of knocking back the drought

52° currently, feels/smells/sounds like early spring should

Expand  

Lots of stuff sprouting in the beds here and the lawn is really greening up.

Screenshot_20250306_090020_Gallery.thumb.jpg.2f7007b5507635c23344d164593f5dbb.jpg

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/6/2025 at 12:24 PM, tunafish said:

Nope.

Expand  

Funny saying that while you're cooked Thursday morning at 47/45. Warmest temps of the period right now.

Thursday isn't over guy. 

If you want I can draw a line for you, if it isn't clear enough for just north of PWM, DAW, MHT.

On track unless you're staring at the piles.

 

NOHRSC_model_SWE.png

  • Weenie 2
  • Disagree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/6/2025 at 2:32 PM, weatherwiz said:

I know tomorrow is going to be windy but holy wow bufkit gone wild :lol: has to be overdone 

Expand  

Not trying to sell Kevin's roof ending up on Boston Common, but ... keep in mind, the March sun is very powerful compared to even Feb, and getting stronger by non-negligible %'s per day as we approach the Equinox.   

The boundary layer will bump ...  Whether this is 'why' BUFKIT may appear so well-mixed or not, there is an environmental argument that convective overturning and BL expansion being proficient -   just because it may be an annoyingly cold day, doesn't mean these mechanics are not in play. 

This is just an added aspect to concern.  It's not the same CAA as it is on Jan 6 when the sun is shining from a cool azimuth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/6/2025 at 3:16 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Not trying to sell Kevin's roof ending up on Boston Common, but ... keep in mind, the March sun is very powerful compared to even Feb, and getting stronger by non-negligible %'s per day as we approach the Equinox.   

The boundary layer will bump ...  Whether this is 'why' BUFKIT may appear so well-mixed or not, there is an environmental argument that convective overturning and BL expansion being proficient -   just because it may be an annoyingly cold day, doesn't mean these mechanics are not in play. 

This is just an added aspect to concern.  It's not the same CAA as it is on Jan 6 when the sun is shining from a cool azimuth

Expand  

It is noteworthy seeing the NAM/GFS so well-mixed but that degree of mixing almost seems overstated here...I mean it has us mixing a good 5-6-7K. I can certainly buy 5K but upwards of 7K...seems a bit overstated for our region, no? Difficult to even do that during the summer.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/6/2025 at 3:20 PM, weatherwiz said:

It is noteworthy seeing the NAM/GFS so well-mixed but that degree of mixing almost seems overstated here...I mean it has us mixing a good 5-6-7K. I can certainly buy 5K but upwards of 7K...seems a bit overstated for our region, no? Difficult to even do that during the summer.

Expand  

it may be that there are two disparate things going on ...

Those models you mention may be over selling the mixing.    But the March sun and bigger gusts aspect is real physics.  

It's just not clear if these models are picking up on that, or if they are just wild for some other reason.  

The sun's aspect may not account for the amount of overturning in the models, in other words.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/6/2025 at 3:23 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

it may be that there are two disparate things going on ...

Those models you mention may be over selling the mixing.    But the March sun and bigger gusts aspect is real physics.  

It's just not clear if these models are picking up on that, or if they are just wild for some other reason.  

The sun's aspect may not account for the amount of overturning in the models, in other words.

Expand  

My thinking is the models are overmixing. We're certainly going to mix and have steep lapse rates, but winds at 850mb aren't anything eye popping. What's happening is with the over-mixing, that is tapping into the base of the 700 jet so we're seeing some big numbers atop the mixed layer. But with this said, I think we see widespread 35-45 mph gusts and upwards of 50 for higher elevations but this 50-60+ potential from bufkit I think is overdone. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/6/2025 at 2:36 PM, dryslot said:

1.18" here, Pack took a hit but holds on.

Expand  

1.21" here, pack drops from 19" to 16", maybe 15 by day's end but that stuff has a lot of SWE.  Highest reports are from downriver, not the mountains, though data from uphill is sketchy.  I highly doubt that the ice will move much on the Sandy.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/6/2025 at 3:52 PM, tamarack said:

1.21" here, pack drops from 19" to 16", maybe 15 by day's end but that stuff has a lot of SWE.  Highest reports are from downriver, not the mountains, though data from uphill is sketchy.  I highly doubt that the ice will move much on the Sandy.

Expand  

Looking at some web cams and from camp, They took a hit but still has a solid snow pack, Suppose to cool overnight into tomorrow, I'm heading up this afternoon, Either i'll ride tomorrow depending on conditions or i'm hauling the trailer back tomorrow instead of Saturday, Either way, This was the last weekend for me whether it rained or snowed.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/6/2025 at 3:52 PM, tamarack said:

1.21" here, pack drops from 19" to 16", maybe 15 by day's end but that stuff has a lot of SWE.  Highest reports are from downriver, not the mountains, though data from uphill is sketchy.  I highly doubt that the ice will move much on the Sandy.

Expand  

I was surprised with 0.80” of rain our pack in town only went from 21” to 19” as of this morning’s obs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...