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March DISCO/OBS: Please End It


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42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models continue showing the torch next week and beyond. At least that’s been consistent 

Except for that obvious tendency for -NAO retrograde behavior to the circulation mode to suppress heights along 40 N, sure ...

If we can avoid that, bombs away.   The question is whether it is real or not. 

I spoke at length about this yesterday but it likely wasn't read.  The NOA index is the worst handled of all of them.  The models may phantom either negative or positive modes, about half of the time.  This negative NAO, or quasi likeness to a -NAO circulation over eastern Canada, was not a part of the original warm outlook for the mid month.  It became a part over the last 3 to 4 days-worth of guidance.   Warm enthusiasts will have to rely upon the poorer performance of the index and 'hope' the current -NAO coherency in the runs is false.   Otherwise, ... the warmth will not get past 40 N - or perhaps 40 F either.  It just doesn't at our latitude, and proximity to the rest of the continent, in March, if/when there is a backward oriented jet coming from the D. Straight and pointed at the Great Lakes.

So we'll see. 

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