March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[Prismshine Productions]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The models might turn colder with the favorable MJO unless it isnt running the pattern.

the MJO isnt... also, I'm ready for 60s to try and get in shape with walks

[UnitedWx]

Uncanny is how many middle fingers Mom Nature has flipped us this year 

[ineedsnow]

We NAM

[weatherwiz]

I don't see this March being an atypical New England March. We're going to have mild periods (perhaps even unseasonably warm for a day or two at a time) but we'll also have our share of colder periods. Looks like we could be dealing with a pretty progressive weather pattern heading into March...but again, not totally uncommon for March.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't see this March being an atypical New England March. We're going to have mild periods (perhaps even unseasonably warm for a day or two at a time) but we'll also have our share of colder periods. Looks like we could be dealing with a pretty progressive weather pattern heading into March...but again, not totally uncommon for March.

Not sure what you are looking at when you say, "I don't see"  but compendium of classical indicators are warmer than your characterization.  

If those indicators were nominal, ...no problem.   But that is not the case.  They are pointed up.

Otherwise, why are there indicators at all if one is not going to use them?   But beyond that... they are useful and that's been demonstrated enough in the past to be empirical and objective.  

Is it fair to say they are not always correct?  sure -    But, so long as we are staring at a wash of +2SD AO(NAO), +2SD EPO, whilst -2SD PNA from ~ the 10th thru the 18th, ... perturbations along the way not withstanding, and not appearing disruptive, it becomes unclear how someone might come to the conclusion that they don't see how -

LOL      good luck.    I don't wish to gaslight anyone's perceptions - it's just that these indicators ... I'm not making this shit up.  There's that,... plus the intangibles - like the recent decadal trends for spring warm burst synoptic events.  Or the longer term indicator of La Nina's sometimes ( but not always...) setting up springs that are decidedly above normal.   Or the CC background elephant taking big shits in the room at all times, smelling like we go above average anyway ...  

I actually "see" it the other way.  It'll be interesting to see which way it goes. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

52 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We NAM

NAM is very mid for you and I

[Typhoon Tip]

tongue in cheek aside...  Yeah, at least through the first week or so, March may do what march does. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure what you are looking at when you say, "I don't see"  but compendium of classical indicators are warmer than your characterization.  

If those indicators were nominal, ...no problem.   But that is not the case.  They are pointed up.

Otherwise, why are there indicators at all if one is not going to use them?   But beyond that... they are useful and that's been demonstrated enough in the past to be empirical and objective.  

Is it fair to say they are not always correct?  sure -    But, so long as we are staring at a wash of +2SD AO(NAO), +2SD EPO, whilst -2SD PNA from ~ the 10th thru the 18th, ... perturbations along the way not withstanding, and not appearing disruptive, it becomes unclear how someone might come to the conclusion that they don't see how -

LOL      good luck.    I don't wish to gaslight anyone's perceptions - these indicators ... I'm not making this shit up.  There's that,... plus the intangibles - like the recent decadal trends for spring warm burst synoptic events.  Or the longer term indicator of La Nina's sometimes ( but not always...) setting up springs that are decidedly above normal.   Or the CC background elephant taking big shits in the room at all times, smelling like we go above average anyway ...  

I actually "see" it the other way.  It'll be interesting to see which way it goes. 

When it comes to anomalous spring time warmth in our region I just exercise extreme caution. I agree with you the teleconnectors and classical indicators are there, however, as you are well aware this time of year little mesoscale and smaller-scale nuisances can outweigh any of those signals. This is why you can't just run off H5 anomalies...H5 could be baking us with 570dm+ heights but the surface could yield an entirely different story. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When it comes to anomalous spring time warmth in our region I just exercise extreme caution. I agree with you the teleconnectors and classical indicators are there, however, as you are well aware this time of year little mesoscale and smaller-scale nuisances can outweigh any of those signals. This is why you can't just run off H5 anomalies...H5 could be baking us with 570dm+ heights but the surface could yield an entirely different story. 

That's true anyway...  

Whether they manifest or not?  fair enough, that can't really be ascertained.   But I'm not sure those should limit you to "not seeing" a pathway toward an anomalous warm period  - which by the way, I'm not talking about the whole spring.  This was the mid March stuff...   Anyway, some years have big warmth, early - so yeah ...sometimes the BS can be suppressed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

3/5 will cut and 3/8 will be wide right…but, we just don’t know yet.

Bastard…

[Sey-Mour Snow]

44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's true anyway...  

Whether they manifest or not?  fair enough, that can't really be ascertained.   But I'm not sure those should limit you to "not seeing" a pathway toward an anomalous warm period  - which by the way, I'm not talking about the whole spring.  This was the mid March stuff...   Anyway, some years have big warmth, early - so yeah ...sometimes the BS can be suppressed.

Weenie range on EPS and GEFS was loading up an epic torch at 500mb.. here’s the surface on EPS 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I like how models are trying to engineer a low developing on the frontal boundary from the low cutting NW of us later next week. That will whiff and cancel any coastal hopes. 

Lol I think it's time you give up and just come back next year. Your mind is 100% made up that we are through. We get it

[Snowcrazed71]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Bastard…

Careful, you might be just like that guy! ;-)

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He and ineedsnow have to be related.

By marriage

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lol I think it's time you give up and just come back next year. Your mind is 100% made up that we are through. We get it

He’s addicted to this place..he’s in here in the summer when there’s really nobody here talking about HHH….and if we hit 88 or 93.  Why do ya think he has close to 200,000 posts.  He can never leave…he’d need to be narcanned. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Could be one helluva a lower Plains look toward mid month, too

[ma blizzard]

can we lock in the extended GFS pattern through September? what an absurd look for mid march at the end of the run 

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's true anyway...  

Whether they manifest or not?  fair enough, that can't really be ascertained.   But I'm not sure those should limit you to "not seeing" a pathway toward an anomalous warm period  - which by the way, I'm not talking about the whole spring.  This was the mid March stuff...   Anyway, some years have big warmth, early - so yeah ...sometimes the BS can be suppressed.

Agreed...I was just stating that because of the progressive nature of the pattern whatever anomalous warmth we see probably won't be sustained. 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He’s addicted to this place..he’s in here in the summer when there’s really nobody here talking about HHH except that dweeb, John ….and if we hit 88 or 93.  Why do ya think he has close to 200,000 posts.  He can never leave…he’d need to be narcanned. 

 

[MJO812]

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats ACY

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats ACY

Every time I see a post from him, I automatically know I'm out. 

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats ACY

I’ll be in Maine…so I’ll miss it, but where does it go from there is the question. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 days…just 10.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ll be in Maine…so I’ll miss it, but where does it go from there is the question. 

Give it 5 days and Ant will say “another good storm that we lost.”, this winter sucks” while everyone else except ineeddongs is outside cleaning their lawns. 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude. You don't stop do you.

Did you know? NYC is the new Fort Kent, Maine. Snows till Memorial Day there

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ll be in Maine…so I’ll miss it, but where does it go from there is the question. 

Not north 

[brooklynwx99]

all ensembles maintain a signal for the 9-10th, just a matter of phasing. worth keeping an eye on

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all ensembles maintain a signal for the 9-10th, just a matter of phasing. worth keeping an eye on

Looks here like what Scott was saying ... impressions like a kink low on a front.  

There's some deep members here ... but it also could be proximity to the pressure well associated with that deep maritime vortex just along the NE edge of this frame... I'd also caution that numerical support for a system on the 9th-10th is waning.  Seems like a candidate for losing amplitude as it nears

[GCWarrior]

Man hope that cutter can trend more west and keep the melting up north at a minimum.