March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I get it. I mean if there’s a big dog imminent I’ll be right there bunning away. 
 

But man got to be impressed with that signal. Only issue will be the anal leakage I mentioned from the north. That is possible. 

You can’t deny those maps you posted are a 2012 look

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Especially in my portion of the region...soooo prone to that.

You know what will happen. Will be ice and snow from PF to dryslot. 38 and rain here while a cop in NYC fights off the mentally ill in Times Square where it’s sunny and 75. That will be this winter’s final rusty trombone for us. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You know what will happen. Will be ice and snow from PF to dryslot. 38 and rain here while a cop in NYC fights off the mentally ill in Times Square where it’s sunny and 75. That will be this winter’s final rusty trombone for us. 

Ya....completely ready to ingest ma nature's home brew of rectal porridge, while the balance of the region enjoys a VIP lap dance from spring.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Anyway,  telecon insists a significant change occurs ...  the timing is the 10th and has been for like 10 days since this signal was very outer horizon, and is now 12 days...   Still time to modulate, but, in that time the signal has only grown. 

The operational runs ending up around 300+ hours with that ridge in the SE and the polar boundary displaced west... warmer hydrostats flooding up to at least Boston's latitude    might be an early detection form those resolution sources, but it really is way too early to sure there.  This all, so far, only useful to warm weather enthusiasts like me, who like to monitor the seasonal transition, for now. 

Sounds about right

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can't hold low level cold with a nor' easter lumbering up the coast in January, but lord knows you can't pry it out of my cold, dead hand in April....nope. I'm one with that b1tch until Memorial day.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can’t deny those maps you posted are a 2012 look

Pretty colors at H5. 2012 was torched well into QB. Both models have HP and cold lurking just over the border. But it’s d14 so whatev. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty colors at H5. 2012 was torched well into QB. Both models have HP and cold lurking just over the border. But it’s d14 so whatev. 

Let’s get 35 and drizzle there with a warm front stalled at MHT. We pray. 

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I get it. I mean if there’s a big dog imminent I’ll be right there bunning away. 
 

But man got to be impressed with that signal. Only issue will be the anal leakage I mentioned from the north. That is possible. 

Big time Labradorian anus pointed at us.

Take that 00z Euro.  It's not likely to verify as is, no, but just to use that to make the example. In a situation like that the warmth in SNE is very precarious.  If that mid level orientation rotates even 5 deg in the clockwise over Ontario, that boundary will collapse SE down the coastal plain clear to NE Va.  It'll be 76 F to 40F across eastern PA we'll be so far inside the rectum that it's not even close.   Meanwhile, from orbit the pattern looks like we're breaking warm weather records to add to the insult

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty colors at H5. 2012 was torched well into QB. Both models have HP and cold lurking just over the border. But it’s d14 so whatev. 

He’s always pimping a once in a generation warm spell that went from March…right into summer.  And as you said, it was warm right up to, and into Canada(Quebec).  Huge difference with this look.   However, I do hope we can break into some warmth by the mid month period.  But a 2012 look it is not as we all know. 

[Typhoon Tip]

sometimes I think planet earth created SNE just for the purpose of being an abandoned, cold misery cesspool -

[8611Blizz]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Big time Labradorian anus pointed at us.

Take that 00z Euro.  It's not likely to verify as is, no, but just to use that to make the example. In a situation like that the warmth in SNE is very precarious.  If that mid level orientation rotates even 5 deg in the clockwise over Ontario, that boundary will collapse SE down the coastal plain clear to NE Va.  It'll be 76 F to 40F across eastern PA we'll be so far inside the rectum that it's not even close.   Meanwhile, from orbit the pattern looks like we're breaking warm weather records to add to the insult

My neighbor had a Labrador,  it took giant shits on the sidewalks.  Testify!

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

He’s always pimping a once in a generation warm spell that went from March…right into summer.  And as you said, it was warm right up to, and into Canada(Quebec).  Huge difference with this look.   However, I do hope we can break into some warmth by the mid month period.  But a 2012 look it is not as we all know. 

Apples and oranges comparison really ..

2012 preceding February was almost as absurdly warm - not in scalar value but relative to climate.   I can recall cargo shorts and just light sweat shirt sometimes tied off around the waste on Saturday mornings, every weekend that February playing disk golf.    The pattern lead was highly conducive; just a little more synoptic nudge was both easy to get there, and probably likely given the inertia in the total system...

This?    different scenario entirely.   We are going from a cold inertial state, trying to correct toward a new paradigm that removes that inertia.   From a modeling perspective, there is 0  ( Z-E-R-O) logical usefulness in attempting to compare the settings of either year.    We may very well flip to some sort of obscenely warm scenario...  we might.  But it would be coming from apples, not oranges.    Or, we may end up with some lesser variation too...etc.  

I think for now, the better take away is that spring is coherently and undeniably in the present indicator outlooks. Just be aware that there is a higher ceiling also a part of all that. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

same for me. last trip up north coming up, returning on 3/9. after that, we are on to yard work (after the melt)

Same here 6th-10th…looks like we’re gonna time it perfectly, with it still cold up there, and then a couple days after we get home, maybe we burst into some nice spring weather.    
 

Of course, now that we would like that…it’ll get muted to nothing over the next two weeks. 

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

sometimes I think planet earth created SNE just for the purpose of being an abandoned, cold misery cesspool -

That has been the season of winter lately. Used to be my favorite, but becoming less and less enjoyable. Too long of a season for this bullshit.

[UnitedWx]

14 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You can come out now and be free. It’s 2025. 

I was going to say, that should be my line... but the door can always open wide

[UnitedWx]

12 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmao about folks thinking Kev is Gay…that’s some funny stuff. 

LOL! I am,  and tend to have his political leanings... so ANYTHING could be true

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

LOL! I am,  and tend to have his political leanings... so ANYTHING could be true

He definitely may not be coming clean on a few things for sure. 

[UnitedWx]

45 degrees in Simsbury already. Suits me fine today, we're working in a horse barn

[UnitedWx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He definitely may not be coming clean on a few things for sure. 

You know... I drive a big Ram pickup as well....

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

You know... I drive a big Ram pickup as well....

He's a few IPAs away from the truth. 

[MJO812]

Euro MJO gets stuck in 1

[ORH_wxman]

EPS still has the 3/9 signal. Prob our last chance of anything significant outside of a rogue late season event. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS still has the 3/9 signal. Prob our last chance of anything significant outside of a rogue late season event. 

The models might turn colder with the favorable MJO unless it isnt running the pattern.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The models might turn colder with the favorable MJO unless it isnt running the pattern.

Dude. You don't stop do you.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS still has the 3/9 signal. Prob our last chance of anything significant outside of a rogue late season event. 

And it may be heading out the door on future run/means.    we'll see...

Thing is ... uuuusually, a larger hemispheric systemic change, like going from the cold inertia ( to use that phrase again ) into a completely new paradigm ( that happens to be warmer no less - )  take longer and the guidance will often enough bias on the short side of when that really happens. 

In this case?  it seems a speed up is happening.  It may be the solar irradiance/flux increasing ...not sure, but something is trying to speed this up.  I noticed the telecon spread has -PNA now on the 9th...where prior it was -d(PNA)... so the -PNA scaffolding, when the NAO is statically positive...not sure how that really numerically supports the 9th. 

That 5-7th transit through the Lakes,... my guess is hoping that corrects E, because that one still has ( though slipping) numerical support. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude. You don't stop do you.

He and ineedsnow have to be related.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And it may be heading out the door on future run/means.    we'll see...

Thing is ... uuuusually, a larger hemispheric systemic change, like going from the cold inertia ( to use that phrase again ) into a completely new paradigm ( that happens to be warmer no less - )  take longer and the guidance will often enough bias on the short side of when that really happens. 

In this case?  it seems a speed up is happening.  It may be the solar irradiance/flux increasing ...not sure, but something is trying to speed this up.  I noticed the telecon spread has -PNA now on the 9th...where prior it was -d(PNA)... so the -PNA scaffolding, when the NAO is statically positive...not sure how that really numerically supports the 9th. 

That 5-7th transit through the Lakes,... my guess is hoping that corrects E, because that one still has ( though slipping) numerical support. 

Of course the support will wane for the coastal, but the pinweel through the lakes is full steam ahead. Last 6 years in a nutshell.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course the support will wane for the coastal, but the pinweel through the lakes is full steam ahead. Last 6 years in a nutshell.

I like how models are trying to engineer a low developing on the frontal boundary from the low cutting NW of us later next week. That will whiff and cancel any coastal hopes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I like how models are trying to engineer a low developing on the frontal boundary from the low cutting NW of us later next week. That will whiff and cancel any coastal hopes. 

Its like the metoeorological equivalent of Final Destination....just uncanny.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude. You don't stop do you.

Not until April