40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:15 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Who ever made that proclamation in the first place. wtf does the West Pac do that directly does anything 12,000 mi away? that demonstrates an inherent lack of understanding if that was the rationale. Definitely high marks for creative thinking though - Expand Forky said it earlier...the West Pac being so warm is what is sending along so many impulses, which presumably is attributable to why the northern stream is so disruptive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:24 PM, Allsnow said: Bluewave said the cutter/slider storm pattern will never change Expand I know...then after a spell of back and forth he will eventually admit that he is "open to new data". Problem is that he has it backwards....assume it will change and be "open to new data" indicating that it won't after a couple of decades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 4:51 PM, forkyfork said: the west pac is just too warm. the jet shits out disturbance after disturbance Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:25 PM, CoastalWx said: It changed quite a bit this year. Expand @bluewave said we haven’t had a benchmark costal track since January 2022. It’s been cutters/huggers/southern sliders since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:25 PM, CoastalWx said: It changed quite a bit this year. Expand "This same pattern would have produced 25" more snow in NYC 25 years ago". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know...then after you call him on it he will eventually admit that he is "open to new data". Problem is that he has it backwards....assume it will change and be "open to new data" indicating that it won't after a couple of decades. Expand Just like the mjo would forever be in the torch phases every winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:29 PM, Allsnow said: @bluewave said we haven’t had a benchmark costal track since January 2022. It’s been cutters/huggers/southern sliders since then Expand I wish you didn't tag and summon him...now its going to turn into the CC forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:31 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wish you didn't tag and summon him...now its going to turn into the CC forum. Expand Forky will be here soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:33 PM, Allsnow said: Forky will be here soon Expand Already is.....his response time is faster now that OT is closed. Now look what we've done. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 @AllsnowI like your stance on his...you buy a lot of it, but just don't take the leap that its permanent...more conservative approach. That is my position. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Already is.....his response time is faster now that OT is closed. Now look what we've done. Expand Every forum deserves their insight… It would be selfish of us to just keep them in the nyc forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:26 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Forky said it earlier...the West Pac being so warm is what is sending along so many impulses, which presumably is attributable to why the northern stream is so disruptive. Expand Well ... that can be true in the sense of 'contributory' but that's one component in a giant of machinery of forcing-sources. I guess I wasn't part of that conversation What you just said and how you said it, doesn't sound preclusive tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:29 PM, Allsnow said: @bluewave said we haven’t had a benchmark costal track since January 2022. It’s been cutters/huggers/southern sliders since then Expand So about 85% of the typical storm tracks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:41 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Well ... that can be true in the sense of 'contributory' but that's one component in a giant of machinery of forcing-sources. I guess I wasn't part of that conversation What you just said and how you said it, doesn't sound preclusive tho Expand My interpretation is that its just made that N Jet so active that it impedes proficient phasing, but if I'm wrong...he can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: @AllsnowI like your stance on his...you buy a lot of it, but just don't take the leap that its permanent...more conservative approach. That is my position. Expand It will snow and be cold again… Philly has had longer snow droughts before. The talk before this winter was how we will never see sustained cold again in the winter. We completely shattered that narrative this season. also the southeast ridge connecting to the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:42 PM, CoastalWx said: So about 85% of the typical storm tracks. Expand If you look back throughout peak of post Pacific cold phases....there have been similar stretches. 1950s had a spell like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:43 PM, Allsnow said: It will snow and be cold again… Philly has had longer snow droughts before. The talk before this winter was how we will never see sustained cold again in the winter. We completely shattered that narrative this season Expand Only cold by modern standards, but yea..... Chris glossed over that point by saying it was the expected deviation from MC forcing....I also predicted one this season, as well....but it wasn't a deviation, it was a departure. It wasn't a month or 6 weeks....it was just about all of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you look back throughout peak of post Pacific cold phases....there have been similar stretches. 1950s had a spell like that. Expand We've had some good coastals before this season, but up until this year we have seen a lack of cold. This year was another way of porking. 79-80 like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Decent signal on the eps 1 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:47 PM, CoastalWx said: We've had some good coastals before this season, but up until this year we have seen a lack of cold. This year was another way of porking. 79-80 like. Expand Its been a little of everything....CC has definietely played a role..there have been some marginal events in which we may have fared better 20 years ago, or maybe some near phases that would have phased better back when with less compression. But its also been to a larger degree just some poor multidecadal signals combining with buzzard's luck....that's called regression from the insane 2010's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its been a little of everything....CC has definietely played a role..there have been some marginal events in which we may have fared better 20 years ago, or maybe some near phases that would have phased better back when with less compression. But its also been to a larger degree just some poor multidecadal signals combining with buzzard's luck....that's called regression from the insane 2010's. Expand Went from pulling 12"+ events in warm winters, to struggling to pul advisory events out from attenuating S/W's bouncing NW of us in the coldest winter in 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:55 PM, CoastalWx said: Went from pulling 12"+ events in warm winters, to struggling to pul advisory events out from attenuating S/W's bouncing NW of us in the coldest winter in 10 years. Expand Yea, that has always happened and always will. That said, CC certainly isn't making it easier to avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 I have to be honest....I was wondering last decade if CC was't INCREASING our climo snowfall here in SNE. I never said that because there wasn't near enough data, and now we see why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 next shot at something more substantial is probably the 9-10th as the cutter drops the TPV down and a wave tries to amp into the colder airmass with the transient PNA spike. after that, it's likely curtains outside of NNE with some warm weather on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:59 PM, brooklynwx99 said: next shot at something more substantial is probably the 9-10th as the cutter drops the TPV down and a wave tries to amp into the colder airmass with the transient PNA spike. after that, it's likely curtains outside of NNE with some warm weather on the way Expand Patterns flips quicker than a burger at Coney Island for Anthony. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:43 PM, Allsnow said: It will snow and be cold again… Philly has had longer snow droughts before. The talk before this winter was how we will never see sustained cold again in the winter. We completely shattered that narrative this season. also the southeast ridge connecting to the block Expand Don't forget the permanent forcing in phases four five and six which did not happen this year either. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 7:03 PM, CoastalWx said: Patterns flips quicker than a burger at Coney Island for Anthony. Expand Yep it's almost over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 EPS def likes Mar 9-10 for a last effort to give us something significant. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 6:42 PM, CoastalWx said: So about 85% of the typical storm tracks. Expand I think we went like 4+ seasons without a benchmark track 1988-89 through 1991-92. Couldn’t freaking buy a storm those years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 On 2/25/2025 at 7:16 PM, ORH_wxman said: I think we went like 4+ seasons without a benchmark track 1988-89 through 1991-92. Couldn’t freaking buy a storm those years. Expand Yea, its goes in a cycles. Of course for a while last decade, every sea gull queef got funneled over the BM. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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