March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[Typhoon Tip]

Just reviewed the teleconnector spread from overnight.  The numbers went next level for mid month. 

There's need to establish continuity ... barring that failure, the short version is that the total spread supports a very warm period.  It isn't too absurd to suggest something more extraordinary could emerge in that ~ 15th to 20th period.  Note, warmth is the most fragile of all metrics in guidance at extended leads.  That is an understatement in March.  It is also 2 weeks+ away ... so this is purely for early monitoring.

Longer version,  teleconnector convergence via multiple mass-field/domain sources.  There is an overlap in space and time, when also considering the functional lags that exist in the correlating source/regions.

Example, The EPO is very warm on it's own.  The PNA is just warm.  However, when you then combine those two, look for positive feedback amplitude.  Meanwhile, the NAO, a metric I use more to assess the exit latitude/orientation of the westerlies across the eastern mid latitude continent, is lodged up at +2SD (~) in the week prior and sustains positive during these EPO(PNA) synergies. Thus, we're losing any way to stop a height expansion from occurring over the eastern continent, one that comes with an unusually high ceiling.  

These early spring heat bomb synoptic scenarios have been going off all over the planet, with higher frequency, for the last 20 years.  They are different than run-o-the-mill balm you might get for a couple of days in melt and mud seasons.  They take you to June, with sun shining type stuff. It's okay to try and recognize/study in attempt to see one coming.  

As an afterthought .. one of the concepts that haunts for me is how enabling I suspect this season's weirdly unrelenting -EPO and cold loaded continent may have guided perceptions.  If/when removing that factor, there is implication baked in that the correction, both sensibly and in the objective results, would have surprisingly big potential.   It's going to be interesting as we head deeper into March ... seeing how/if this manifests.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats Ray Hubbdave

What part of NYC do you live in?

[WinterWolf]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is it?

Yes it is. It won’t even be close to March 2012.  More silly hyperbole.  

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd be careful about slipping into the defeatist "whoa is me" meterorological stupor type of trap.....things are changing on a multidecadal scale. As far as the "CC will not allow for any more coastal track seasons" philosophy goes.....my only response is to wait and see because nothing anyone says will change your mind.

There will be plenty of coastals to come in the years ahead… bank on it. 

[CoastalWx]

Story of the winter as Wolfie has said many times is how we just couldn’t put anything together. A new way to put that rusty trombone up your tail pipe. 

[Cyclone-68]

Have I already seen my last flakes of the season? For that to happen in mid Feb would be interesting 

[WinterWolf]

We’ll se a few more flakes..but I don’t think we put anything of substance together. Just doesn’t want to work this year. 

[DJln491]

NNE may still have some legs but I think we're cooked down here in death valley

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Pretty much just piles here. Hoping the rest is gone this week so I can get going on some outdoor projects in the coming weeks. Need to stain the deck, paint the shed doors, power wash the house, etc etc 

[Prismshine Productions]

Congrats Ray Hubbdave

An inch and a half when I need 2.55 to hit seasonal... Dayum

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[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

An inch and a half when I need 2.55 to hit seasonal... Dayum

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Not 2.54 or 2.56"?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Not 2.54 or 2.56"?

 

You gotta give the southerners a break on the snowfall measuring. They will eventually learn there’s no such thing as a unit smaller than one tenth when it comes to snowfall. 

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Story of the winter as Wolfie has said many times is how we just couldn’t put anything together. A new way to put that rusty trombone up your tail pipe. 

Well I feel for you man. I guess I am grateful to be more used to disappointment out this way. Get numb after awhile the sting wears off.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I guess the next exciting weather will be tracking a hurricane into Florida 6 months from now.   

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

You gotta give the southerners a break on the snowfall measuring. They will eventually learn there’s no such thing as a unit smaller than one tenth when it comes to snowfall. 

You know Winter has been bad when some people start including Trace amounts in their seasonal total. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Well I feel for you man. I guess I am grateful to be more used to disappointment out this way. Get numb after awhile the sting wears off.

His area was prob due for the hardest reversion to the mean of anywhere in SNE. That BOS to south shore stretch performed just obscenely above long term climo for a long time. All those 128-495 storms we had growing up seemed to really not be as prevalent during the 2000s/2010s. The south shore jackpotted or near-jackpotted so many storms.

We’ve seen a return to a few more of those 128 or 495 storms since then to go along with shit winters in general.  
 

That said, I didn’t think the reversion would be this extreme over a 3 winter period. It’s like Mother Nature is trying to make up for everything over the last 20 years there inside of a 5 year period, lol. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Not 2.54 or 2.56"?

 
You gotta give the southerners a break on the snowfall measuring. They will eventually learn there’s no such thing as a unit smaller than one tenth when it comes to snowfall. 

Ok then.

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[Typhoon Tip]

yeah maybe the 5th -9th if we wanted to hone into a time span.  There's an interesting ( sort of ..) look there with a strong N branch moving by N, while there is a subtle split toting along a S stream wave...It's all like the last of the +PNA as it it finally soon collapses.

Could be a seasonal exit event so to speak.  last hurrah.          Getting a 33" April 97 redux of course but that's a different thing .haha

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

His area was prob due for the hardest reversion to the mean of anywhere in SNE. That BOS to south shore stretch performed just obscenely above long term climo for a long time. All those 128-495 storms we had growing up seemed to really not be as prevalent during the 2000s/2010s. The south shore jackpotted or near-jackpotted so many storms.

We’ve seen a return to a few more of those 128 or 495 storms since then to go along with shit winters in general.  
 

That said, I didn’t think the reversion would be this extreme over a 3 winter period. It’s like Mother Nature is trying to make up for everything over the last 20 years there inside of a 5 year period, lol. 

Been brutal. At least we had snow otg vs something like early 2003 when I had a crusty inch if that, while N and W of 128/90 had 18-24". Fully expected a revision, but this is brutal.

[CoastalWx]

Where is the PV when you want it next week?

[Chrisrotary12]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No....not when the season has 50% of average. It was an awful season with a decent month of February.

What if we just switched our expectations to snow season being just January & February? Anything received in December or March is bonus. 

[Prismshine Productions]

ineedsnow needs to answer for this...

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[CoastalWx]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

ineedsnow needs to answer for this...

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Only 10 days away!

[Prismshine Productions]

Only 10 days away!

Ray jackpot, so we know that won't happen

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[Typhoon Tip]

ha... wasn't actually seeing that 12z gfs when wrote that but yeah I guess.  it's possible

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

ineedsnow needs to answer for this...

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Cutter gone

Congrats Georgia ?

[Prismshine Productions]

Cutter gone
Congrats Georgia ?

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[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Story of the winter as Wolfie has said many times is how we just couldn’t put anything together. A new way to put that rusty trombone up your tail pipe. 

the west pac is just too warm. the jet shits out disturbance after disturbance 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Ray jackpot, so we know that won't happen

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I love the gradient from 12.5" to zippo over lke 5 miles in NE PA.

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

There will be plenty of coastals to come in the years ahead… bank on it. 

Should we make a bet?