March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah that was spectacular. Don’t get me wrong—still like a good winter—but it’s easily fall, summer, spring, and winter in my order of enjoyment. 

Yes…for me it’s winter.  However I’m enjoying the different seasons more and more as I get a little older.  I’m not a big fan of huge heat…but I do enjoy/appreciate the nice/warm weather more than I used to. 

[weatherwiz]

Keep in mind too, the better part of the last decade has been some wild transitions between ENSO events and this includes multiple super strong EL Nino's. When you account for lags which typically exist between the oceanic-atmospheric coupling and then throw in some rapid ENSO transitions and you're dealing with extreme chaos. Lots of gradients, both temperature and pressure, and combined with external forcings, what is the response of the atmosphere going to be with these gradients...very fast flows during the NH winter. 

We get ourselves into some more dormant ENSO years and we will see things relax. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Anyway, unless the indexes change, the present long range continues to blow torch.  By the Ides of the month, comprehensive thaw and a decidedly different sensible weather permeates.

There are no other offset indicators at this time when using the teleconnectors.  

The spatial synoptic illustrations look cold through the 10th but they probably should, considering the modest -EPO dump in the foreground ( roughly the 5th...).  I could see it where the scale and breadth of warm expansion afterward toward mid month may presently/merely have some emergence challenges, for the guidance having to 'see' through that cold ish gauntlet in the foreground.   Model performance on the other side of inflection points is typically not that great.  

 

[WinterWolf]

So by/after the 15th or so it should get nice and warm/mild….is that what your post is saying?  I wouldn’t mind that.  

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Spring adjust the wavelengths as the seasonal change causes them to get wonky, and you can certainly get a large event of rain or snow.

Or long duration

[codfishsnowman]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I like it more and more. Summer as it should be and it only gets warmer since we are melting away the permafrost and basically cold fronts are more like a dryline.

I got told the other day to not take such occurrences too seriously....I don't enjoy hot summers but I think you're dead on the permafrost and summer cold fronts

 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So by/after the 15th or so it should get nice and warm/mild….is that what your post is saying?  I wouldn’t mind that.  

after the 10th ...  yeah, more or less.  It's obviously bs to attempt details.  Like, most Mets like to refer to long leads as percentages chances for above, much above, below or much below, leaving "warm" and/or "mild" adjectives off the table

Thing is, merely above normal for March 15 isn't exactly warm water therapy to the back of balls.   We'd need to get much higher than just above average to fit that impression.  Subjectivity notwithstanding.   50s persistently is early spring and would qualify as comprehensive thawing for example. 

Again, the "scale and breadth of the expansion" is naturally going to be less certain for the time being.

[codfishsnowman]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So you are into temperature concerns...  word.

I'm sick of this, "convective debris by 1 pm in 78 DPs, with thunder boomin away always somewhere else  ..."   and it's penetrative warm wetness that seems to even get into your bed it is so inundating - if you don't have sufficient hvac methods .

It's like we get this weakness in the 500 mb height field - I think it's related to these unbearable record hot heat domes going on over western N/A, more and more so in summers. It is causing the flow to physically/necessarily sink in latitude over the eastern continent - in the means.   Sure, it won't be all the time, but is however the base-line super synoptic rest state.  The flow is SE over VA, S over PA, and that pools in New England. That means like Scott was saying ...we seem to more and more end up with high DPs, which of course is true... There's no seems about - regardless of cause, we are getting persistent DP anomalies.   This then inimically leads to +cloud anomalies and basically ...  NOT getting the 84/55, WNW breezy, nostalgic summer types.  

This makes a lot of sense but its still depressing.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya that was last August and September…every single day for weeks and weeks. With cool/very cool nights. How quickly we forget. 

Right last year late summer was stunning but what I am referencing here are days that would be refreshingly brought by cold fronts from mid to late June forward.

[H2Otown_WX]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

after the 10th ...  yeah, more or less.  It's obviously bs to attempt details.  Like, most Mets like to refer to long leads as percentages chances for above, much above, below or much below, leaving "warm" and/or "mild" adjectives off the table

Thing is, merely above normal for March 15 isn't exactly warm water therapy to the back of balls.   We'd need to get much higher than just above average to fit that impression.  Subjectivity notwithstanding.   50s persistently is early spring and would qualify as comprehensive thawing for example. 

Again, the "scale and breadth of the expansion" is naturally going to be less certain for the time being.

Do you have any thoughts about whether or not it flips back to BN in April?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

This makes a lot of sense but its still depressing.

Well, I'm not intending to doom the summer of 2025.   haha.   Just that these DP stagnated warm cesspool summer types ...yeah, they are depressing - to me.  And as I was saying to Scoot, I'm hoping to avoid that type of summer as we set to put this winter out of its misery.

You know ... there are those amongst us that ( seemingly...) actually love asthma attacks from stachybotrys chartarum spores, the spread of exotic fungi, and/or invasive biting species migration that harbor pathogens the likes of which would make a Nazi bioweapons researcher envious - and they get all that, for free, when every day is 81/77 ...  I don't know who they are ( or if they are really human beings - ) but in the spirit of WOKIsm, we can't leave them out I guess

[codfishsnowman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well, I'm not intending to doom the summer of 2025.   haha.   Just that these DP stagnated warm cesspool summer types ...yeah, they are depressing - to me.  I as I was saying to Scoot, I'm hoping to avoid that type of summer as we set to put this winter out of its misery.

You know ... there are those amongst us that ( seemingly...) actually love asthma attacks from stachybotrys chartarum spores, the spread of exotic fungi, and/or invasive biting species migration that harbor pathogens the likes of which would make a Nazi bioweapons researcher envious - and they get all that, for free, when every day is 81/77 ...

LOVED the second paragraph!

[CoastalWx]

Looks like if we are lucky we might get one shot in March before it warms up. 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like if we are lucky we might get one shot in March before it warms up. 

EPS likes the mid Atlantic sigh 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like if we are lucky we might get one shot in March before it warms up. 

Wow…you’re actually saying theres a chance. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow…you’re actually saying theres a chance. 

Pretty lame, but can't rule it out. Just a flaccid ending to winter.

[Allsnow]

Haha. Please no 

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

Looks like if we're unlucky we'll have one more shot.

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. Please no 

 

 

Def gonna happen just so early April is ruined.

[Ginx snewx]

18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Same with weed?

Wtf is wrong with you

[Damage In Tolland]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty lame, but can't rule it out. Just a flaccid ending to winter.

What about your Saturday night snower?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wtf is wrong with you

Beer. Lots of beer there. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. Please no 

 

 

Ineedsnow just took off his socks.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wtf is wrong with you

What 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Beer. Lots of beer there. 

Stupid stuff 

[DJln491]

33 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. Please no 

 

 

bring it

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Do you have any thoughts about whether or not it flips back to BN in April?

Not really ...  not much for seasonal wx forecasting.  Not my bag ...   Ray or someone may have an idea.  

i guess i could say that La Nina have been known to throw out some ridic heat early.  1976 was a whopper.  The VAX up at UML had ASOS records going back that far, and there was a heat wave in April that year that was like 92/93/96/94 ... during a month that seldom saw a high less than 75 - exceedingly rare for a strapped down Labradorian rape month like April...   

that's an extreme though.  Since 2000, we've been getting weird warm spells early (Feb-Apr) that skew the real picture, because they occurred regardless of what ENSO this or that was taking place.  

i dunno. 

[Typhoon Tip]

There is a time decay on that though.  If they occur too late, the seasonal breakdown of the hemispheric eddy goes so far the circuitry's cut and the cycle won't complete - the correlations peeters out. 

[CoastalWx]

Don't we typically get a final warming around that time anyways?

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't we typically get a final warming around that time anyways?

Yes but i think these are weighted against climo? So if it's higher than the typical baseline, it would screw things up potentially.