March DISCO/OBS: Please End It

[H2Otown_WX]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Thinking we have a shot around the 4th till the 10th or so. It’s not some type of Brooklyn h5 look but we could sneak something in before spring 

3/8 is my prediction

[78Blizzard]

Feb SSTs in Boston are at the lowest at this time since Feb 2015, so if we get some marginal situations in March we could do ok.

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

3/8 is my prediction

I’ll be in Maine sledding..so lock it in. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man nothing exciting. Might be just a slow death. 

^

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I had snow on the ground for Christmas but that warmup had me bare ground for a while. Seems like a long time but its only be 3-4 weeks.

I was down to pretty close to bare ground until January 11

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like spring is trying to invade the guidance to me. 

I realize we had been tracking another -EPO load and potential cold for ~ Mar 3 - 8th.   However, the index' prognostics have backed off that a little, while the longer range synoptic charts have followed along. Still cold in that period, but it's more transient and not as inundating and deep as previous. 

Prior to the 3rd and after then 9th or so....  we tend to go above machine guidance on sunny days.   I see 540 dm thickness up to ORD-BOS in intervals, with off shore wind in the means, and the first thing that comes to mind is that folks will be under estimating/visualizing how mild that will be ...

Keep in mind, we still live under the glow lamp of attribution, only suppressed by a persistent -EPO over top a low frequency +PNA winter.  This latter aspect has been enabling.

[CoastalWx]

I suppose we watch Saturday. A gfs/euro compromise might work. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I suppose we watch Saturday. A gfs/euro compromise might work. 

Sell her 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I suppose we watch Saturday. A gfs/euro compromise might work. 

I betcha dimes to donuts that ends trekking N of us.  we'll see -

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sell her 

Well that is the most sensible way to go since nothing has worked..so I get that persistence idea right now.  But at some point, it won’t be the case.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well that is the most sensible way to go since nothing has worked..so I get that persistence idea right now.  But at some point, it won’t be the case.  

Eternal hope.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well that is the most sensible way to go since nothing has worked..so I get that persistence idea right now.  But at some point, it won’t be the case.  

It’s a clipper that the 18z Gfs suddenly decided to drop 300 miles south. Not happening 

[BombsAway1288]

7 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not going to lie, he has pretty much nailed every call this winter, especially every “snow” event reducing intensity by 50% or more in the final 36 hours.

This is honestly the worst winter of my adult life, about to turn 31 next week. The combination of cold and lack of snow has been miserable.

This has to be recency bias. How have the last 2 winters not been worse than this one?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Clippah!

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a clipper that the 18z Gfs suddenly decided to drop 300 miles south. Not happening 

The cutter before that is stronger this run.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a clipper that the 18z Gfs suddenly decided to drop 300 miles south. Not happening 

12z had it too. Euro has some front end 

[kdxken]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This winter have taken alot out of people .  We had cold all winter and nothing big to show for it.  People want warmer weather but we know that's not going to happen especially up your way until maybe May when it's consistent. 

 

[Torch Tiger]

Stein? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I suppose we watch Saturday. A gfs/euro compromise might work. 

Major events are done.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Well that is the most sensible way to go since nothing has worked..so I get that persistence idea right now.  But at some point, it won’t be the case.  

Yea, next year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Blind persistence forecasting is one thing, but there is something to be said for identifying an unfavorable nuance in the longer wave pattern...sure, wavelengths are changing, but I'll still bet against anything other than maybe a couple of mixed bag, garbage advisory type deals that will of course coincide with commutes and be a collosal nuisance...AKA bouts of ass mist.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This has to be the most useless season relative to potential since 2009-2010.

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Stein? 

Yup . Post Euro 

[78Blizzard]

Meteorological winter may be over March 1, but if the 18z GFS is right, the first 11 days of March are going to end up 9-10ºF BN.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Blind persistence forecasting is one thing, but there is something to be said for identifying an unfavorable nuance in the longer wave pattern...sure, wavelengths are changing, but I'll still bet against anything other than maybe a couple of mixed bag, garbage advisory type deals that will of course coincide with commutes and be a collosal nuisance...AKA bouts of ass mist.

There has been a consistent nuance this season to weaken events by about 50% in the final 36 hours, along with the compressed flow causing all kinds of issues.

Unless it was a rain event, you could bet on the event underwhelming in the snow department relative to where it was 2 days prior.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There has been a consistent nuance this season to weaken events by about 50% in the final 36 hours, along with the compressed flow causing all kinds of issues.

Unless it was a rain event, you could bet on the event underwhelming in the snow department relative to where it was 2 days prior.

Part of it is we always have those limp ridges off of the west coast

[Ginx snewx]

Persistence works until it doesn't 

[CoastalWx]

The event imo that did well was the one on MLK weekend. That actually beat my expectations. The reason why many have been so meh is that you should the s/w ripping NW of you along with all the good forcing. Models still to this day are biased too wet in those WAA zones with little baroclinic forcing and PVA.

[weatherwiz]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This winter have taken alot out of people .  We had cold all winter and nothing big to show for it.  People want warmer weather but we know that's not going to happen especially up your way until maybe May when it's consistent. 

I’m still not over last winter. I felt really good going into the winter. The straw in the bag was the early Feb storm (well almost mid Feb) where north/central CT ended up getting hammered. I for sure thought I would see a foot minimum and got like 3.5”. I’m just ready to reset and try again next winter. If we get something in the next 3-4 weeks I’m game but I’m not getting investing in anything outside of 3-4 days (except of what I would have to do for work). 

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Persistence works until it doesn't 

Same with weed?