40/70 Benchmark Posted Wednesday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:20 PM Here are my thoughts from Novemeber....will update next week. Obviously the SSW didn't work out, but the PV split via tropospheric processes did, so this sped up the timeline on impacts and pushed it earlier to mid Feb. March 2025 Outlook March Analogs: 2023x2, 2022, 2021, 2017 2014, 2001,1972 The polar vortex should weaken once again to an extent to close out the season, though confidence is not high in a major episode of blocking. The window for a SSW is through about the 20th of the month, so the impact on winter would largely depend on just how early it can take place. During February or at least the first week of March for maximum impact throughout southern New England. There is another window for a potential KU from approximately March 5 through the 19th, but confidence is low.The cold source should be relatively close by at the very least, not unlike February should major blocking not materialize. Near average to 2F above in the mean with near average precipitation inland and slightly below near the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Wednesday at 03:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:51 PM Tip just pretty much said we'll never get another KU because of CC infused flow compression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Wednesday at 05:00 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:00 PM 1 hour ago, H2Otown_WX said: Tip just pretty much said we'll never get another KU because of CC infused flow compression. He has a right to his opinion, but I feel strongly that is BS. Its not any type of denial.....I understrand CC is taking place and should we continue to fail to witness any such storms into the early part of the next decade, then I will reconsider that stance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:19 PM 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He has a right to his opinion, but I feel strongly that is BS. Its not any type of denial.....I understrand CC is taking place and should we continue to fail to witness any such storms into the early part of the next decade, then I will reconsider that stance. He launched an invalid interpretation of what I was discussing ... you bit on it as if that interpretation was correct, therefore ...blah This is how our society got a demagogue into power - just expand that spontaneous misrepresentation of facts, and how it grows into an asshole tree, out to the dimensions of a society, and that is how the shade under which our culture no longer sees the sun 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Wednesday at 05:21 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:21 PM 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: He launched an invalid interpretation of what I was discussing ... you bit on it as if that interpretation was correct, therefore ...blah This is how our society got a demagogue into power - just expand that spontaneous misrepresentation of facts, and how it grows into an asshole tree, and that is now the shade under which our culture no longer sees the sun Or...here is a crazy thought...I'm at work and didn't view the original exchange? I opined that that particular radical view is BS...I'll take your word for it that you were misinterpreted...fine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Wednesday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:09 PM Euro finally gives Kevin his catastrophic ice storm in clown range. Let’s do it. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Wednesday at 07:31 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:31 PM 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro finally gives Kevin his catastrophic ice storm in clown range. Let’s do it. Has there ever been a siggy icing event in Morch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted Wednesday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:30 PM Interesting start for a thread. Reminds me of the old newsgroup (scientific with reasoning) with fewer members. Kind of makes one want to keep it scientific with statements direct on point. I might even start analyzing synoptic set-ups and forecast again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 08:38 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:38 PM 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro finally gives Kevin his catastrophic ice storm in clown range. Let’s do it. Nah...same shit of moving too fast for that... In fact, I'm a little bemused by the relaxing compression yet the S/W remain so fast. I think the whole arena past the 25th is going to probably be reworked in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Wednesday at 08:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:41 PM 59 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Has there ever been a siggy icing event in Morch? 1995 had a biggie on the last day of February. Close enough. Massive ice storm hit NY state in March 1991. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Wednesday at 08:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:44 PM 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1995 had a biggie on the last day of February. Close enough. Massive ice storm hit NY state in March 1991. Would you mind pinning a thread for us in the SE forum? It is the 2/19-20 obs thread. Our moderators haven’t been available for awhile. TIA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Wednesday at 09:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:03 PM 18 minutes ago, GaWx said: Would you mind pinning a thread for us in the SE forum? It is the 2/19-20 obs thread. Our moderators haven’t been available for awhile. TIA Done 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Wednesday at 09:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:44 PM 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: 1995 had a biggie on the last day of February. Close enough. Massive ice storm hit NY state in March 1991. didn't the coast of CT get one in April one year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Wednesday at 09:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:53 PM 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He has a right to his opinion, but I feel strongly that is BS. Its not any type of denial.....I understrand CC is taking place and should we continue to fail to witness any such storms into the early part of the next decade, then I will reconsider that stance. Agreed on this end also. I understand where he's coming from and right now that certainly seems to be what's happening. However looking back there's nothing saying that this isn't exactly what happened before. Many would argue that cc is also what caused our extremely snowy years of the past couple decades. It's all a big fluid dynamics crapshoot in the end 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Wednesday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:58 PM 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: 1995 had a biggie on the last day of February. Close enough. Massive ice storm hit NY state in March 1991. Most I remember is December, is that the most likely month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 10:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:28 PM 43 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: didn't the coast of CT get one in April one year? 2016. Near half inch ice at HVN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Wednesday at 11:05 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:05 PM 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro finally gives Kevin his catastrophic ice storm in clown range. Let’s do it. When is that for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted yesterday at 12:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:02 AM 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When is that for? Was way out in clown range in early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted yesterday at 01:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:48 AM 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: 1995 had a biggie on the last day of February. Close enough. Massive ice storm hit NY state in March 1991. One of the biggest ice storms I remember growing up near ALB was in April 2003. It wasn’t a whopper but a legit 0.50” to 0.75” of ice that cut power to spots for days. Split a tree in our yard, ahh damage. They can happen late season, but tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 01:53 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:53 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted yesterday at 02:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:59 AM 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: 2016. Near half inch ice at HVN. I remember that very well. Mid afternoon and it was in the low to mid 20s in april flipping around from snow-sleet-freezing rain. There we two events back to back. I dunno about a half inch or an "ice storm" per se but there certainly was some freezing rain throughout the day and bitterly cold for April. Latest PNS i have has HVN at 0.23 Likely low maxes were broken during that 2-3 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted yesterday at 11:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:24 AM 8 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: I remember that very well. Mid afternoon and it was in the low to mid 20s in april flipping around from snow-sleet-freezing rain. There we two events back to back. I dunno about a half inch or an "ice storm" per se but there certainly was some freezing rain throughout the day and bitterly cold for April. Latest PNS i have has HVN at 0.23 Likely low maxes were broken during that 2-3 day period. I remember this. I was living in Avon and everything was covered trees and all when I got up in the morning. It was very cold because my drive to work come although it was April, the roads were covered with a sleep freezing rain mix as well. What a few-day stretch of winter weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted yesterday at 01:21 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:21 PM 8 more days and then winter can go F itself. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 01:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:25 PM 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: 8 more days and then winter can go F itself. Wait till April 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted yesterday at 01:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:36 PM 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wait till April Nah. Winter gets till February 28 for me. Then March is about golf season prep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted yesterday at 02:21 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:21 PM 6z gfs op has a big 'un inside runner in la-la land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted yesterday at 02:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:34 PM 17 hours ago, GaWx said: Would you mind pinning a thread for us in the SE forum? It is the 2/19-20 obs thread. Our moderators haven’t been available for awhile. TIA He was born in CT btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:38 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:38 PM 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Wait till April Its impressive how snowman never misses an opportunity to affix a weenie to any of your posts....guy is always lurking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted yesterday at 03:27 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:27 PM 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its impressive how snowman never misses an opportunity to affix a weenie to any of your posts....guy is always lurking. There’s a good argument that it’s even more pathological behavior than obsessively rooting for snow itself. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 04:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:03 PM How’s the big ice storm day 9 looking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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